March 25, 2010

T20 - March 24th 2010

Global Markets
1. S&P500 trades firmly on the backdrop of sweeping U.S. health care measure announcement. S&P500 chart
2. Health Reform - The Drug industry’s big win: Among big businesses, Pfizer, Amgen and other big drug companies are emerging as big winners
3. Knives out on Chinese currency: Nobel laureate Paul Krugman is in favour of a revaluation of Yuan. However, Stephen Roach of Morgan Stanley says, “…it is ludicrous to blame China for the financial crisis,"
4. Gold slips to $1092 on RBI raising bank rates. Gold chart
5. Crude Oil Finishes Above $81 a Barrel: Crude oil prices rebounded settling above $81 a barrel as the dollar's momentum against the euro reversed. Crude oil chart
Economy
6. Repo and reverse repo rates hiked by 25bps: To tame down inflation and anchor inflationary expectations, RBI raised the repo and reverse repo rate by 25bps to 5% and 3.5% respectively with immediate effect
7. Govt sticks to 7.2% growth for this fiscal: Projections for 2010-11 stands at 8.5%
8. Govt. move on price hike in natural gas soon: Expectations rife that hike in natural gas produced by the state-run oil firms by as much as 30%
Indian Markets
9. Nifty interrupted by rate hike announcement. Nifty chart
10. FIIs and DIIs have different perspectives: FIIs were net buyers this week pumping over Rs. 3500 Cr into the market, DIIs remained net sellers by pulling out over Rs. 520 Cr
11. India 10-yr yield jumps to more than 17-month high: Yield on the 10-year benchmark 6.35%, 2020 bond was at 7.94% after rising to 8.03%, which was its highest since Oct. 8, 2008
Sectors
12. PSU Banks may get lucky over the next fiscal: Public sectors Banks may get more than the budgetd INR 165bn($3.6bn) capital infusion in the next fiscal year
13. 3G to announce applicants on March 29, 2010: 11 companies, including Bharti Airtel, Vodafone Essar, Idea Cellular, Reliance Communications and Aircel, have bid for broadband wireless spectrum
14. Shipping Industry finally in limelight: Shipping Ministry to award Rs 14,000-cr port projects in FY'11
Stocks
15. Sahara mulls IPO for new IPL team: London soccer team, industrialists want minority stakes, says promoter
16. L&T bags INR 9.77bn($215mn) order for interceptor boats. L&T chart
17. ICICI Bank gets full license for Singapore operations. ICICI chart
18. Jindal Steel & Power to set up INR 420bn ($9.13bn) CTL plant. Jindal steel
Quotes
19. "Keep it simple and remember what you set out to do." - Charlie Munger
20. "We don't have to be smarter than the rest; we have to be more disciplined than the rest." - Warren Buffett

March 18, 2010

T20 - March 17th 2010

Global Markets
1. S&P500 raises after Fed pledges to keep rates low: Federal Reserve's mildly upbeat take on the economy and its plans to hold interest rates low gave stocks a lift S&P charts
2. US bill to pressure China on currency: 14 U.S. senators unveiled legislation seeking to increase pressure on China to let its currency to rise Vs dollar as the "currency manipulation" is hurting the U.S. economy
3. Dollar falters after Fed maintains it’s “Exceptionally Low” interest rates for “Extended Period” Dollex chart

Economy
4. Feb ‘10 WPI Inflation at 9.89% v/s 8.58%: Despite this Govt doesn't see the need for a rate hike; Finmin says enough room before policy announcement late April 2010
5. IIP numbers reiterated that India’s growth story remains intact: Industrial output rose 16.7% in Jan 2010 as against the upwardly revised 17.6% record growth in Dec 2009
6. World comes to the Indian stock exchange: NSE announced that it would soon approach the regulators for permission to launch futures contracts on S&P 500 index, one of world's most-watched indices
7. IMF upbeat about India’s growth: IMF forecasts India's economic growth to accelerate to 8.0% in 2010-11 from 6.75% in 2009-10. That compares with the government's forecast for growth in 2010-11 of 8.5%

Indian Markets
8. Nifty breaks out finally breaks-free after an elongated flattish movement Nifty chart
9. FIIs and DIIs have different perspectives: FIIs were net buyers this week pumping over Rs. 4000 Cr into the market, DIIs remained net sellers by pulling out Rs. 1845.5 Cr
10. Bond prices cautious ahead of announcement of Govt. borrowing calendar in next fiscal: Yield on the 10-year benchmark Govt. bond ended at the day's low of 7.99%, from Friday's closing of 8.01%
11. Fitch Ratings launches money market fund (MMF) ratings for Indian Money market funds: Following the global launch on Jan 20, 2010; MMF rating scale has now been adopted for Indian Money market funds
12. Advance tax grows 3.63% in Q4, falls below expectation: Advance tax collection signals healthy growth; 2200 cos pay higher amounts for Q4 than last fiscal

Sectors
13. India’s 3G auction begins – top 3 bidders get spectrum in 17 circles: Govt. has fixed April 9, 2010 as the auction date for the 3G spectrum whereas the auction for BWA spectrum, including WiMax will take place 2 days after the 3G auction
14. Cement dispatches come down: Growth in dispatches of the commodity has come down to 7.78% in Feb 2010 compared with around the 10% pace maintained for many months
15. Infrastructure gets a push: Govt. is considering nine highway projects for taking up as 'Mega Projects'. The length of these projects varies from 390 to 700 km

Stocks
16. Reliance breaks the jinx, pulls out Nifty from the tight trading range Reliance chart
17. Infrastructure firm Hindustan Construction Co. (HCC) would buy a controlling stake in Swiss developer Karl Steiner AG HCC chart
18. Morgan Stanley Downgrades Hindustan Unilever to Underweight HUL chart

Quotes
19. I never attempt to make money on the stock market. I buy on the assumption that they could close the market the next day and not reopen it for five years - Warren Buffett
20. Buy on the cannons, sell on the trumpets. - Old French Proverb

March 09, 2010

T20-9th March 2010

Global Markets
1. Jobs data beats expectations, uplift market spirits: Will it crossover recent highs of 1150? S&P chart
2. World Indices: Best performing Index last week was FTSE with gain of 3.6% and the worst was HANG SENG with gain of 0.9%
3. Currency woes continue on PIGS backdrop: Euro sheds gains against the dollar after the Greek prime minister warned that if the Greek crisis worsened it could lead to a new global financial meltdown
4. Dollar index is currently trading above the 80 mark – Will it turnaround from here?
Economy
5. Banks on a win-win? Credit growth picks up registering an increase of INR 226 bn during the fortnight ending Feb 13, 2010
6. Time not ripe for decontrol of lending rates: Subbarao says, complete decontrol of lending rates was not possible currently, but it might be possible when the country achieved double-digit growth and improved farm productivity
7. Inflation concerns mount: Yield on the benchmark 10-year government bond has climbed 14 basis points to 8 percent since the budget on inflation concerns
Indian Markets
8. Midcaps rule!: CNX MIDCAP with gained 7.6% while the SENSEX gained 4.6%. Midcap chart
9. Weekly FII inflow highest in last 5 month: Net buyers Rs. 4,973.65 Crore for the week ending March 08, 2010. Are the FIIs getting excited on India again?
Sectors
10. Auto sales in February at new monthly high: Indian auto industry said its February sales were the highest ever for a month, breaking the earlier record set only in January this year, as consumers rushed to beat a possible hike in prices following the Budget
11. Duty on crude oil to hit private refineries more: The increase in the Customs duty on crude oil in the Budget is likely to impact the realizations of domestic non-government refiners, Reliance Industries and Essar Oil.
12. Banks raise teaser rates on Auto loans: ICICI & HDFC Bank were first inline to raise auto loans by 50bps
13. FMCG products to be costlier by up to 7%: Beauty creams, hair oil, shampoos and other household items will cost more with prices set to increase prices by up to 7% due to the excise duty hike announced in the Budget
Stocks
14. Daimler to sell 5.34% stake in Tata Motors: German car major Daimler AG is exiting Tata Motors, India’s largest commercial vehicles maker. Daimler, which held 5.34% stake in the company, plans to raise around Rs 1,950 crore from the share sale
15. Cigarette price rise inevitable ITC: ITC said that hike in cigarette prices is inevitable due to imposition of excise duty on tobacco in the Union Budget for 2010-11. How much can be passed on needs to be seen.
16. NMDC down on FPO pricing: Shares similar fate with NTPC, REC NMDC Chart
17. Zicom Electronics is making some strategic changes in its operations/business. Will this affect the scrip prices? Zicom chart
18. Bank license queue gets lengthier: LIC stands in line for bank license
Quotes
19. Wall Street people learn nothing and forget everything - Benjamin Graham
20. The value of education...is not the learning of many facts but the training of the mind to think something that cannot be learned from textbooks - Albert Einstein

March 04, 2010

T20-4th March 2010

1. Greece bailout & AIG Deal uplifts global spirit: Greece is closer to a bailout deal and AIG's sale of its Asian unit propelled S&P 500 and Dow to cross above crucial 50EMA and trade on a positive note. S&P500 chart
2. Dollar strengthens against Euro / Pound: British pound plunged versus the dollar on political uncertainty in Britain; Euro continues to fall on debt worries
3. China weakens while US recovers slowly: Buffett says US economy recovering but at slow rate; Consumers is still not spending much. Pace of Chinese manufacturing eased last month which suggests lower government spending and steps to curb credit growth
4. George Soros triples Exposure to Gold: Despite believing that Gold is a bubble about to burst, Soros Fund Mgt., LLC, increased its investment in SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest Gold ETF by 152% in Q4
5. Food inflation eases by a tad: Food inflation falls to 17.58% for the week ended February 13 from 17.97% in the previous week
6. Budget makes few things expensive: Consumer durables, car prices, automobiles, fuel, bullion, cigarettes etc. become dearer
7. Fuel prices increase: With the budget announcement on central excise and custom duty; Petrol increased by Rs.3/litre & Diesel by about Rs.2/litre. Prices of cooking gas may be raised by Rs.50/cylinder and Kerosene by 3/litre
8. Nifty crosses 50EMA and 5000 which was a strong resistance: Budget was a key event which enthused the market into the much needed positive territory, markets have been range bound lately. Nifty chart
9. FIIs remain bullish on Indian markets: FIIs remained net buyers with over Rs. 1140 crore bought into Indian Equity markets
10. Agri-commodities recovers after a 2 year fall: Futures trading in agri-commodities recovered in 2009 and grew by 48% at Rs 10.88 lakh crore over the previous year on the back of the government lifting ban on five farm items
11. More competition in store for banks as RBI readies to issue banking licenses to NBFCs: Host of NBFCs such as IDFC, Aditya Birla Fin. Services, Reliance Cap, Religare Ent and Indiabulls are queuing at RBI to seek banking licenses
12. Two sectors making news at the moment – Auto & Banks both very elated post budget
13. Re-alignment of Pantaloon to create value unlocking for stakeholders: Kishore Biyani-promoted Pantaloon Retail said its board had approved the merger of the consumer durables and home improvement units of its subsidiary, Home Solutions Retail, with itself. Pantaloon chart
14. Copper supply interrupted: Due to Chile tusanmi, Copper supply is disturbed which leads to Copper prices soaring in LME index. Keep an eye on Hindustan Copper
15. TATA Motors: Company reported strong vehicle sales in the month just gone by. JLR demonstrated the ability to turn around volumes and realizations, while keeping costs in check. Tata motors chart
16. Reliance Industries: Bankrupt petrochemicals maker Lyondell Basell rejected a bid for takeover by India's Reliance Industries Ltd. Stock takes support at 50EMA after a free fall. RIL chart
17. Put not your trust in money, but put your money in trust. - Oliver Wendell Holmes
18. Stock market bubbles don't grow out of thin air. They have a solid basis in reality, but reality as distorted by a misconception. – George Soros
19. Rate of tax on services has been retained at 10% to pave the way forward for GST – GST Implementation date affixed on Apr,2011
20. Budget week ends on a happy note : ‘Aam Aadmi’ is happy with tax slab changes, so are the corporates with the surcharge reduction, many sectors rejoice and continue with the post budget gains. IT slabs