Closing Be!! .... fourth consecutive negative daily close for the Sensex/Nifty

Markets slide lower

Markets began the new Jan derivative series on a weak note. The main indices were dragged lower by Reliance as it touched a new 52-week low. It was the fourth consecutive negative daily close for the Sensex/Nifty.

Statistics

While the BSE Sensex finally closed 89.01pts or 0.57% lower at 15,454.92, the Nifty lost 21.95pts or 0.47% to close at 4,624.3. Broad market indices however ended higher as the BSE Mid Cap and Small Cap indices gained 0.31% and 0.09% respectively. Market breadth was negative as the A/D ratio was 0.91:1 on the BSE. NSE cash turnover was Rs.6,685crs. Vs. Rs.8,926crs. in the previous session.

Sectoral and Stock movers

The sectoral indices ended with a mixed bag. While the top gainers were the BSE Healthcare and IT indices, the top losers were the BSE Oil and Gas, Realty, Bankex and Metal indices. The top gainers from the BSE 30 were Infy, Coal India and BHEL. The top losers were Reliance, Jindal Steel, DLF and Tata Steel.

Foreign markets

Major European markets like the CAC ( 0.19%) and DAX ( 0.32%) are trading higher at 16:28 IST. The FTSE is however trading lower (-0.18%).

Major Asian markets have closed on a mixed note. While the Nikkei (0.67%) and Hang Seng ( 0.2%) have ended higher, the Straits (-1.0%) and Taiwan (-0.04%) indices have ended lower.

Way forward

With the markets drifting down further for the fourth consecutive session, immediate lows to watch are now at 4602. A close below these supports could see the Nifty heading towards the next major lows of 4531. On the upside, immediate resistance is at 4688.

Sources-HDFC SEC

Morning Bell !!!.....The Sensex rebounded after a fall in previous three sessions

Indian Markets

Positive global cues have helped the main Indian stock indices open with a positive bias on the last trading session of what has been a tumultuous year for the domestic markets.

However, there is no certainty on whether the early morning gains could be sustained throughout the day as most of the headwinds that weighed on the markets have not been dealt with completely. Investors will continue to be cautious in the early part of 2012.

The outcome of state elections in Uttar Pradesh could have a significant bearing on policy formulations by UPA II, including the Union Budget. It might also change some political and strategic equations at the Centre. So, all eyes will be fixed on the UP elections in the days and weeks to come.

Talking of politics, USA, the world's largest economy, will also hold Presidential elections later in 2012. A leadership change is also in the offing in China. Elections are scheduled in Russia, Iran, Egypt, France, Greece and South Korea among others.

The Lokpal Bill could not clear the Rajya Sabha due to resistance from several parties, including Trinamool Congress. The passage of the Bill will be in a limbo till the next session. The Lok Sabha was adjourned sine die while the Rajya Sabha ended abruptly at the stroke of midnight without the House taking a vote on the Lokpal Bill.

State-run oil companies are mulling a hike in petrol prices. The proposed move may still be nixed by the Government in view of the upcoming state polls.

US and European Markets

U.S. stocks rose on Thursday in a thinly-traded session as investors focused on signs of strength in the economy before calling it a year. Dow Jones rose 136 points, or 1.1%, to end at 12,287. S&P 500 added 13 points, or 1.1%, to 1,263. Nasdaq gained 24 points, or 0.9%, to 2,614.

European stock markets closed higher Thursday in thin trading conditions, helped by gains for Wall Street and after an Italian debt auction was taken in stride. Britain's FTSE 100 added 0.8%, DAX in Germany rose 0.9% and France's CAC 40 rose 1.1%.

Asian Markets

Today all the Asian indices are trading in the green except Strit Times, which is down by 0.3%. Shanghai and Hang Seng are trading higher by 1% and 0.4% respectively. Nikkei and Taiwan are up 0.3% and 0.1% respectively. SGX Nifty is trading higher by 36.5 points.

Currencies

The Indian rupee ended steady on Thursday vs the Dollar, recovering from the day's lows on suspected central bank intervention and dollar-selling by nationalised banks for a second day in a row.

Commodities

Among the metals, Nickel and Copper lost 2.5% and 1.9% respectively. Zinc and Aluminium fell by 0.5% and 0.4% respectively. Oil for February delivery rose 31 cents to $99.05 a barrel. Gold futures for February delivery fell $23.20 to $1,540.90 an ounce. Gold prices have softened due to a stronger dollar.

Key events to watch for today

India - CPI Industrial Workers data

US - Fed Balance Sheet

China - PMI Manufacturing Index

Italy - PPI data

Outlook

Today, the Indian market is likely to open in the green following strong global cues and could trade in a range through the day. Support on Nifty is at 4,600-4,540 while resistance is at 4,720-4,800. Among the sectoral indices, Auto stocks could outperform while Metal stocks look weak.

Sources- RH Morning data, HDFC SEC

Closing Bell !!...Nifty closes below 4,700 on the last derivative expiry of year 2011

Markets ended lower amidst a volatile trading session on Thursday, weighed down by weak Asian cues early in the day and a depreciating rupee, with index heavyweights Reliance Industries and Infosys leading the fall.

Statistics

While the BSE Sensex finally closed 184 pts or 1.2% lower at 15,544, the Nifty lost 60 pts or 1.3% to close at 4,646. Broad market indices too ended lower as the BSE Mid Cap and Small Cap indices lost 0.4% and 0.7% respectively. Market breadth was negative as the A/D ratio was 0.8:1 on the BSE. NSE cash turnover was Rs.8,926 crs. Vs. Rs.6,218 crs. in the previous session.

Sectoral and Stock movers

Barring the BSE Metals and Healthcare indices, all the sectoral indices ended lower. The top losers were the BSE Oil & Gas, Capital Goods, Realty and Power indices. The top gainers from the BSE 30 were Jindal Steel, SBI, Sterlite Inds and Hindalco Inds. The top losers were Maruti, BHEL, RIL and Tata Power.

Foreign markets

Major European markets like FTSE ( 0.2%) and DAX ( 0.2%) are trading higher at 16:10 IST while CAC is trading marginally lower.

Asian markets like Taiwan (0.3%), Strait Times (0.2%) and Shanghai (0.2%) indices ended higher for the day. However, Hang Seng and Nikkei lost 0.7% and 0.3% respectively.

Way forward

With the Nifty breaking an important support level of 4,700 today, we expect the downtrend to continue.

Source- hdfcsec

Morning Bell !!!....The Sensex opened with 0.5% gap down on expiry day, tracking concerns in the euro zone

Indian Markets

Indian Equity Indices trembled in the early morning trade.

ONGC, DRREDDY, RPower, HDFC Bank, Coal India, ITC were among the notable leaders in the Sensex and the Nifty.

Infosys, Wipro, ICICI Bank, DLF, Ranbaxy, L&T, Maruti Suzuki, TCS, SBI, Sun Pharma,RCOM, Tata Steel, Tata Power, Bajaj Auto, were among the notable losers in the Sensex and the Nifty.

US and European Markets

Stocks closed down more than 1% Wednesday, as investors continued to fret over how Europe could solve its debt troubles in 2012. Selling intensified ahead of the close. Dow Jones closed down 140 points, or 1.1%. S&P 500 slid 16 points, or 1.3%. Nasdaq lost 35 points, or 1.3%.

European markets were down today, influenced by a negative day on Wall Street. Indexes fell mainly due to banking sector shares affected by the previous day's record overnight deposits with the ECB, indicating mistrust between banks, now reluctant to use the inter-bank market.Britain's FTSE 100 eased 0.1%, the DAX in Germany slumped 2% and France's CAC 40 lost 1%.

Asian Markets

Today all the Asian indices are trading in the red except Shanghai, which is up marginally. Hang Seng and Nikkei are trading lower by 1% and 0.8% respectively. Strait Times and Kospi are down by 0.3% each while Taiwan is down 0.5%.SGX Nifty is trading lower by 22.5 points.

Currencies

The Indian Rupee ended off lows on Wednesday against the US Dollar, recovering most losses after suspected RBI intervention, but global risk aversion meant the Indian currency would remain under pressure in the near term, dealers said.

Commodities

Among the metals, Zinc and Nickel lost 1.9% and 1.8% respectively. Aluminium and Copper ended lower by 1.1% each. Oil prices for February delivery jumped 1.5% after a top Iranian official warned that the nation could block the Strait of Hormuz, a key transit point for oil exports from the Middle East. Gold futures for February delivery fell $31.40 to $1,564.10 an ounce.

Key events to watch for today

India - WPI (Y-o-Y change)

US - Jobless Claims, Pending Home Sales Index, EIA Petroleum Status Report

Germany - CPI

Outlook

Today, the Indian market is likely to open in the red following weak global cues and could witness volatility on account of derivatives expiry. Among the sectoral indices, Auto, Capital Goods and Banking stocks could underperform.

Sources- HDFC SEC,RH morning market

Morning Bell !!!......The key Indian equity indices have dipped in early morning trade

Indian Market

The key Indian equity indices have dipped in early morning trade with the BSE Sensex and the NSE Nifty struggling for direction amid no decisive clues from the overseas markets.

As far as domestic economy is concerned, things are looking bleak and will take time to turn around. FII flows will remain muted till there are signs of concrete action on the policy front.

Infosys, Tata Motors, HDFC, Tata Power,Hero MotoCorp,RCOM, TCS, HUL, NTPC, were among the notable leaders in the Sensex and the Nifty.

DLF, ICICI Bank, Ranbaxy, Axis Bank, HCL Tech, Tata Steel, BHEL, SBI, ONGC, L&T, were among the notable losers in the Sensex and the Nifty.

Power, Auto and IT index are the gainers.

FMCG, PSU, Metal, Realty, Consumer Goods,Bankex, Consumer Durables indices are the losers.

Market breadth is even with equal number of shares rising and falling on the BSE. Most sectoral indices are trading in the red, led by Banking and Capital Goods indices. Realty, Consumer Durables, PSU, Metals and Pharma indices are down anywhere between 0.5% and 1%. The remaining sectoral indices are more or less subdued.

Most Asian markets are down today with many of them returning to action after extended Christmas holidays. Indices in China and Hong Kong are down ~0.5% each. The S&P/ASX 200 index in Australia has lost 1%. The Nikkei in Japan was more or less unchanged

US Market

U.S. stocks were little changed; following the longest rally since September, as better‐than‐estimated consumer confidence data overshadowed a decline in home prices and concern about Europe’s debt crisis.

Asian Market

Asian stocks fell for a second day amid slow trading, with the regional benchmark index headed for the worst year since 2008, after a report showed U.S. housing prices fell, damping the earnings outlook for Asia’s exporters.

Commodities:

Oil traded near the highest level in six weeks after Iran threatened to block crude transportation through the Strait of Hormuz, increasing concern that global supplies will be curbed amid shrinking U.S. stockpiles.

Sources- RH morning market

Losing the spring in the step!

It is that time of the year again; that of lazing, taking a break or an extended holiday and obviously who has boring market and investing on the minds. While talking to existing clients and prospects there was an excitement around what they are planning to do during the year end break than discuss investments. It is obvious therefore that you get along discussing the matter and take it easy with them while giving them time to enjoy and relax. Of course connecting this way and talking about other important things in life is equally important with clients – it goes a long way to build that relationship and facility smoother transactions in the year ahead.

Talking about today session, with the above background in view, looks like nobody’s really interested now that we are in the final over of the year. The match is more or less over, with equities being on the losing side in this game and other players such as Gold, Commodities and debt taking the lead.

The stocks today just hankered up and down basically losing all spring in their step and now appear to be leading a listless existence. All in all, looks like we would have a closing of 2011 over 20% down for the major indices for sure, unless of course we move either sharply higher or lower from current levels; which seem unlikely given that with each passing day this week, more number of people switching off from work.

Time to get listless on serious stuff and get more active on the dance floor.

Morning Bell !!!.....All the Indian Indices trading flat, Market in X'mas mood!!

Indian Markets

The frontline Indian equity benchmarks are sedate at best in early morning trade, as investors choose to stay on the sidelines with only few trading sessions left in the year. Even the broader indices are subdued, leading to a dull start to the day.

IT, Oil and Gas, HC, Consumer Goods indices are the gainers. Realty, Power, Auto, FMCG, PSU indices are the losers.

Infosys, Wipro, DLF, Tata Power, Sun Pharma, L&T, Tata Power, Reliance Infra, RCOM, Rpower, Jindal Steel were among the notable leaders in the Sensex and the Nifty.

ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, SBI,BHEL Bajaj Auto, Coal India, Cipla, Bharti Airtel, ITC, NTPC were among the notable losers in the Sensex and the Nifty.

The political heat is all set to escalate as the showdown between Team Anna and the Government is likely to continue. Anna Hazare begins his three-day agitation in Mumbai from the MMRDA ground in BKC, Bandra. The Parliament will also resume the winter session to debate the New Lokpal Bill.

Asian Markets

Today all the Asian indices are trading in the red with Shanghai and Kospi trading lower by 0.9% and 0.6% respectively. Nikkei and Taiwan are down 0.5% each while Strait Times is down 0.2%. As per IST 8.15 am SGX Nifty is trading lower by 15 points.

Currencies

The Indian rupee ended stronger in thin trade on Monday as some bets on a further decline in the currency were covered amid improved risk sentiments on positive U.S. jobs and manufacturing data.

Key events to watch for today

US Consumer Confidence Level1 Report

US S&P Case-Shiller HPI

Outlook

Today, the Indian market is likely to open in the red following weak Asian cues and later take cues from the European markets.

Sources- Rh Morning market, HDFCSEC.

Calendar- January 2012 " An All Rounder in your Portfolio"

Morning Bell !!!!....The main Indian equity benchmarks have opened with a positive bias

Indian Markets

The main Indian equity benchmarks have opened with a positive bias, extending the advance from last week, amid signs of strength in the US economy and stable Asian markets. Trading volumes across world markets have tapered off lately as market players opt for extended year-end Christmas break.

Trading volumes across world markets have tapered off lately as market players opt for extended year-end Christmas break.

Shares of telecom service providers like Bharti Airtel, Idea Cellular and RCOM have risen after the TDSAT restraint the DoT from canceling the inter-circle 3G roaming agreements between the mobile operators.

Shares of GVK Power & Infra have jumped after a business daily reported that Singapore's Changhi Airport was likely to buy a 26% stake in GVK’s airports business.

US and European Markets

U.S. Investors brought holiday cheer to the stock markets pushing the S&P 500 back into positive territory for 2011 and the Dow up 6% for the year. On a light trading day ahead of the holiday weekend, investors scooped up stocks after economic reports released Friday morning continue to provide glimmers of hope for the U.S. economy with better-than-expected readings on personal spending, income and housing released Friday morning.

Dow Jones added 124 points, or 1% Friday. The index is up 3.6% for the week and 6.1% for year. S&P 500 rose 11 points, or 0.9% Friday, adding 3.7 for the week and 0.6% for the year. Nasdaq moved 19 points higher, or 0.7%, and despite moving up 2.7% this week, it's still down 1.3% this year.

Asian Markets

Today, all the Asian indices are trading in the red except Nikkei, which is trading higher by 1.1%. Shanghai and Kospi are down by 0.3% and 0.5% respectively. Taiwan is down 0.1%.As of IST 8.45 am today, SGX Nifty is trading higher by 6 points.

Currencies

The rupee remained on a weaker footing against the US dollar, as local demand for dollars remained strong.

Key events to watch for today

India - IIP Core (Y-o-Y Chg)

Outlook for Today

Today, we expect the Indian Markets to open in the green on the back of positive global cues and trade sideways.

Source- RH morning market update, HDFC SECURITY

Morning Bell!!!....Immediate support for Nifty is at 4650, while the resistance is at 4800.

Indian Markets

The main Indian equity benchmarks have opened with a positive bias, extending the gains to a third successive session, as investors welcome a series of upbeat data on the US economy and stability in European markets. Asian markets too are trading mostly up today, tracking overnight gains on Wall Street and Europe.

RIL, Wipro, DLF, L&T, BHEL, Tata Power, Maruti Suzki, Tata Motors, NTPC, Coal India, IDFC, HDFC Bank, Tata Steel, were among the notable leaders in the Sensex and the Nifty.

Infosys, Ranbaxy, TCS, ICICI Bank, Sun Pharma, Hero MotoCorp, were among the notable losers in the Sensex and the Nifty.

US and European Markets

U.S. stocks finished a quiet session higher on Thursday, after a stronger-than-expected reading on unemployment boosted investor optimism. The Dow Jones industrial average climbed 62 points, or 0.5%, the S&P 500 rose 10 points, or 0.8%, and the Nasdaq ticked up 21 points, or 0.8%.

Asian Markets

Today, all the Asian indices are trading in the green with Shanghai & Hang Seng trading higher by 0.3% & 1% respectively. Kospi & Strait times are up by 1% & 0.3% respectively, while Taiwan is trading higher by 1.8%.As of IST 8.50 am today, SGX Nifty is trading higher by 19 points.

Currencies

The rupee depreciated against the USD by 0.2% on Thursday on renewed dollar demand from importers and some banks despite firm local equity markets.

Commodities

Among the metals, Aluminium, Copper & Nickel ended higher by 0.3%, 1.3% & 1.8% respectively, while Zinc fell by 0.5%.Oil for February delivery rose 86 cents to $99.53 a barrel. Gold futures for February delivery dropped $3 to settle at $1,610.60 an ounce.

Key events to watch for today

India - Forex Reserves & WMA (ways and means advance) to central & state governments.

Italy - ISAE Consumer Confidence (Level)

France - PPI (M-o-M & Y-o-Y)

US - Personal Income & Outlays, Durable goods orders, new home sales, money supply & Fed Balance Sheet.

Outlook for Today

Today, we expect the Indian Markets to open in the green on the back of positive global cues & trade in a range with positive bias throughout the session. Immediate support for Nifty is at 4650, while the resistance is at 4800.

Sources- RH morning update, hdfcsec,

Listless at best!

Today’s market was listless at best. There was no sense of purpose in the way stocks moved. It wanted to get ahead and went up; while it had opened like it wanted to go deep down. I am calling it listless though volatile could also be the word used, since volume fatigue seems to have set in. Also, the ones that have sunk in deep have seem to settled there accepting the battering as fate. The ones that seem to go up higher also do not show any promise. RIL for one is a case in point. Many BUY recommendations, positive news flow and above all looks well positioned to move up. Fundamentally and technically. However, on a daily basis the movement appears not to be very convincing, appears completely tentative to touch back to INR700 levels at the drop of the hat.

That only serves to tell, that it is only about sentiment for the moment. It would not take long for this thing to reverse therefore. Then, RIL moving smartly to INR900 would appear a cakewalk. Just that at this moment the time is just not perfect. RIL was being used only as an example. Take any stock, of the index which has steady fundamental outlook in the medium term, the same logic would apply.

And yes this is not limited to index stocks alone.

Finally, we enter the last week of 2011 next week, where the world would slow down materially; and would go about merry making. On the other side of December 31, 2011 lies hope and of course the earnings season for Q3 for us. Will that change course for the battered markets? It could be 50:50.

Let’s wait and watch. For now, Christmas is upon us. Season to be Merry and season to be Happy for what GOD has bestowed upon us. Will wish one and all today, tomorrow and on Christmas eve – A fun filled season ahead. GOD Bless.

Morning Bell !!!.....The undertone is negative due to deteriorating fundamentals of the Indian economy

Indian Markets

The frontline Indian equity indices have lost ground in the opening trade, reversing some of the big gains registered in the preceding session.

The undertone is negative due to weak global markets and persistent concerns about deteriorating fundamentals of the Indian economy. The rupee, which advanced yesterday, is also down today versus the US dollar. The euro has softened after the ECB's maiden three-year lending program failed to alleviate concerns about the region's debt crisis.

ONGC, NTPC, HUL, Tata Power, Siemens, ITC were among the notable leaders in the Sensex and the Nifty. where as Infosys, ICICI Bank, Wipro, L&T, Rpower, DLF, BHEL, TCS, Tata Steel, SBI, were among the notable losers in the Sensex and the Nifty.

US and European Markets

The Dow and S&P 500 ended the day barely in positive territory on Wednesday, after falling nearly 1% on fears over the health of European banks and worse-than-expected readings on the housing market continued to trouble the markets. The Nasdaq trimmed some of the day's losses, but closed down 1% after most software stocks dropped dramatically following Oracle's surprisingly weak quarterly earnings released Tuesday night. The Dow Jones industrial average closed up 4 points, or 0.03%; while the S&P 500 added 2 points, or 0.2%. Competitors including Fortinet. TIBCO Software, and Teradata dropped between 5.5% and 7%.

Asian Markets

Today, all the Asian indices are trading in the red with Shanghai & Hang Seng trading lower by 1.4% & 0.7% respectively. Nikkei & Strait times are down by 0.6% & 0.3% respectively, while Kospi & Taiwan are trading lower by 0.4% & 0.1% respectively. As of IST 8.45 am, SGX Nifty is trading lower today by 42.5 points.

Currencies

The rupee appreciated against the USD by 0.7% on Wednesday to close at a more than one-week high following a sharp rebound in the local equities. Fresh dollar selling by exporters and some banks amid some weakness in dollar overseas also aided the rupee rise.

Key events to watch for today

India - WPI Index (Primary, Food, Non-Food Articles and Fuel & Power)

Italy - Retail Sales

UK - GDP

US - Jobless Claims, Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Level), GDP, Consumer Sentiment Index, FHFA House Price Index

Outlook for Today

Today, we expect the Indian Markets to open lower following weak global cues.Latest food inflation data is due today but may not have any material impact on the overall sentiment, which is pretty fragile. However, later during the day, it could find support at lower levels and make an attempt to recover some of its losses. Immediate support for Nifty is at 4650, while the resistance is at 4750.

Source- rh morning market,HDFCSEC Report

Late surge and a flight to quality!

The NIFTY Index today move sharply upwards and did not come as a surprise. After all the battering that the index received through the whole of December 2011, while the entire of Asia was doing fine was more than perplexing even with all the home-grown problems. So bounce it did, and the question that every one would ask could be; will it head up all the way to 5000 levels and beyond. Well, looks like Pt. 5000 could be effortless, however, could get a little difficult in the interim as the selling at every higher point would accentuate and exiters would spoil the party.

That said, I would imagine that the line of thought would not change, and we should continue to nibble away meaningfully at these levels by investing bit by bit. Just like we SIP the hot coffee, SIP away your blues of the market by starting as many SIP’s as possible for your clients. I am certain that around the same time next year, you could be a proud RM/WM to flaunt the statement to your client.

Coming back to market performance, the pattern was very typical too; all the action on the upside was limited to large caps, which means the out of favor mid/small caps are continuing to be just that; out of favor. My sense is that they would continue to remain out of favor until they demonstrate the resilience through quarterly results. Thankfully our set of mid/small companies are extremely ‘jugaadu’ and they would come out of this ruckus in flying colors. So it means that this out of favorness would be extended a while but is not a permanent feature.

We are now on the last legs of the year 2011. Then again it would bring in all the brand new (doomsday) year 2012. Just like our boss who is a contrarian to the core and has been successful with this philosophy; don’t be surprised if 2012 is a contrarian year. People have labeled it the year of Doom – and this would turn out to be the trump year. Remember that 2011 was labeled as the turn around year 12 months ago and turned out to be dud.

Strange are the ways. As they say – never predict, especially about the future.

Morning Bell !!!!.....After long time market in green mood

Indian Markets

The key Indian equity benchmarks have opened with a big gap, tracking overnight rally in the US and European markets, as investors cheer upbeat reports on the US and European economies. Most other Asian markets are also up smartly today while the Rupee has also advanced marginally versus the US dollar.

BANKEX, Consumer Goods, Consumer Durables, Power, Realty, Auto, Oil and Gas, PSU, IT, FMCG indices are the gainers. RIL, Infosys, Wipro, Coal India, DLF, Axis Bank, SBI, Tata Motors, NTPC, Ranbaxy, Bajaj Auto, ITC, Maruti Suzuki, Sterlite Inds,Tata Steel, Mahindra & Mahindra were among the notable leaders in the Sensex and the Nifty. HCLTECH, HEROMOTOCO were among the notable losers in the Sensex and the Nifty.

US and European Markets

U.S. stocks surged on Tuesday as concerns about the European debt crisis eased and investors welcomed signs of strength in the U.S. housing market. Dow Jones rose 337 points, or 2.9%, to end at 12,103. S&P 500 jumped 36 points, or 3%, to 1,241. Nasdaq gained 80 points, or 3.2%, to 2,604.

European stock markets ended with strong gains Tuesday, boosted by upbeat news on the German economy and sharply lower borrowing costs for Spain. Britain's FTSE 100 rose 1%, while DAX in Germany jumped 3.1% and France's CAC 40 rose 2.7%.

Asian Markets

Today, all the Asian indices are trading in the green with Taiwan up the most (3.9%). Kospi and Hang Seng are trading higher by 2.7% and 1.8% respectively. Kospi and Nikkei are up 1.5% and 1.4% respectively. Shanghai is up 0.4%. As of IST 8.15 am, SGX Nifty is trading higher today by 83 points.

Currencies

The rupee reversed all intraday gains to close steady on Tuesday as traders pared some long-dollar positions after RBI deputy governor said more steps would be taken, if needed, to bring stability to the domestic forex market.

Commodities

Among the metals, Zinc fell by 0.1% while Aluminum gained 1.5%. Nickel rose by 1.1% while Copper ended marginally in the green. Oil for January delivery rose $3.29 to end at $97.17 a barrel. Gold futures for February delivery rose $20.90 to settle at $1,617.60 an ounce.

Key events to watch for today

Italy GDP

US EIA Petroleum Status Report

US Existing Home Sales

Outlook for Today

Today, we expect the Indian Markets to open in the green and inch up further during the day. Among the sectoral indices, Oil & Gas and IT stocks could outperform.

Sources- HDFCSEC, RH Morning market update

Urgently required – rare M+ blood group!

When Santa comes to town this weekend, I would imagine we would not recognize him, since he wears red suit and there is blood all over the street and in news and in the mood. So maybe he should come down to India at least in a green suit; for a change.

The markets looks like have caught a severe form of e-coli virus infection and is dehydrating everyday. We go from one level to another and for straight sessions in December 2011 we are down to a level where every one is looking like lost appetite to buy anything. Blue chip have transformed into Blue cheaps. How else would you imagine, LT @ 975 (triple digits) and lesser known construction companies such as HCC @ 16INR. With prices so cheap there is no need to look at the mid/small cap names at all. BTW, who wants to look at names which are falling like 8-10% on a single day.

For the entire 2011 to date; we are now down around 26% and that is amongst the worst performing asset class across Asia.

Today’s fall was worrisome for couple of points; nothing new happened however, Asia was meaningfully up and so is EU region despite all the crap that is going on. This then looks like the world telling us that the Indian economy is not worth the attractive opportunity the way insiders present it to be. Could be true but only partly, according to me. My sense is that at some point the same points such as regions that have done well don’t deserve to be rated that much higher and there is great value in India. This argument coming into play is likely to become a reality sooner than later if we continue to head south.

For the moment, the market requires blood, urgently and as we all know, M+ is a rare group only with a few people, excluding all politicians.

Morning Bell !!!............Swelling fiscal deficit, widening current account gap, high interest rates, slowing economy and policy inaction are forcing foreign investors to commit less to India

Indian Markets

The frontline Indian indices managed to pull back from lows struck on Monday while the volatile rupee closed above the 53-per-dollar mark. The start today was a better one as most Asian markets are trading in the positive zone. Swelling fiscal deficit, widening current account gap, high interest rates, slowing economy and policy inaction are forcing foreign investors to commit less to India. Lingering worries over the euro area debt crisis continue to play spoilsport as well.

It is tough to find many optimists willing to bet their money on Indian equities at the moment. Further downside is not ruled out as buying support is dwindling. Scary levels on the frontline indices are being bandied about. Things could improve a bit over the medium to long term, provided the Government signals and/or implements a few important steps to lift the pall of gloom.

Although the Nifty ended on a negative note, a hammer on Monday’s trading session has a potential to turn into a trend reversal pattern, provided it is followed by a higher opening. On the upside, 4675 could turn out to be an important resistance on a closing basis. Any move above the same would negate a ‘Head and shoulder’ pattern, paving the way for a relief rally. Till then, the mood is likely to remain cautious.

US and European Markets

U.S. stocks closed sharply lower on Monday as bank shares took a beating amid fresh concerns about the debt crisis in Europe. Dow Jones fell 100 points, or 0.8%, to end at 11,766. S&P 500 sank 14 points, or 1.2%, to 1,205. Nasdaq slid 32 points, or 1.2%, to 2,523.

European stocks closed mostly lower on Monday, giving up gains as markets waited on talks between EU finance ministers and kept a wary eye on the Far East after the death of North Korea's Kim Jong-Il. Britain's FTSE 100 eased 0.4%, DAX in Germany slid 0.5% and France's CAC 40 closed little changed.

Currencies

The rupee pulled back from the day's low on Monday buoyed by dollar sales from some local companies, although weakness in local equities on signs of cooling domestic growth weighed.

Commodities

Among the metals, Nickel gained 1.6% while Aluminium lost 2.4%. Copper and Zinc fell by 0.8% and 0.9% respectively.Oil for January delivery rose 58 cents to $94.11 a barrel. Gold futures for February delivery fell $4.90 to $1,593.00 an ounce.

Key events to watch for today

India - CPI

Germany - PPI

US - Redbook

Japan - Bank of Japan announcement

Outlook for Today

Today, we expect the Indian Markets to open in the green and inch up further during the day. Support on Nifty is at 4,539 while resistance is 4,650. Among the sectoral indices, Auto stocks could outperform.

Source- Rh Morning market update, HDFC Security

Morning Bell !!!!.....SENSEX dives 250 points,Nifty fell 84 points to 4,567.80

Indian Markets

The Sensex extended the sell-off in the early trade, falling over 264 points while the Nifty was slipping towards the 4550 level. The Indian rupee too depreciated by 45 paise to 53.15 a dollar; in the last week it appreciated sharply from a record low of 54.29 after RBI came out with some measures to minimise the speculation. Banks, capital goods, metals and technology stocks were also beaten down. The Sensex was quoting at 15227.40. Meanwhile, the Nifty fell 84 points to 4,567.80 led by fall in 43 stocks

US and European Markets

Stocks ended Friday mixed after a roller-coaster week in which all three indexes each lost more than 2.5%. After moving up more than 1% in the first hour of trading, stocks steadily retreated. Dow Jones closed the day down 2 points, or 0.02%. S&P 500 moved up 4 points, or 0.3%. Nasdaq increased 15 points, or 0.6%.

European stocks pulled back on Friday, adding to the fourth weekly loss in the past five. Britain's FTSE 100 ticked down 0.3% while DAX in Germany edged down 0.5%. France's CAC 40 shed 0.9%.

Asian Markets

Today, all the Asian indices are trading in the red with Kospi and Hang Seng trading lower by 2.5% and 1.9% respectively. Shanghai and Taiwan are down by 1.8% each while Strait Times is down 1.5%. Nikkei is down by 0.8%. As of IST 8.15 am, SGX Nifty is trading lower today by 41 points.

Currencies

USD had appreciated marginally against the Euro before France and Spain sell bills this week amid concern the currency blocs second- and fourth- largest economies will have their credit rating cuts. The 17-nation euro traded near a two-month low versus the yen after Fitch Ratings lowered its outlook for France’s credit ranking and said it may cut Spain’s grade.

The Indian rupee surged against the U.S. dollar in a day of wild swings after a central bank move to curb speculative currency bets led to a dramatic drop in volumes on Friday, even as it announced a likely reversal in its monetary policy stance.

Commodities

Among the metals, Nickel and Aluminium gained 1.5% and 1.2% respectively. Copper and Zinc rose by 1% and 0.4% respectively. Oil for January delivery increased 12 cents to $93.99 a barrel. Gold futures for February delivery rose $20.70 to $1,597.90 an ounce.

Key events to watch for today

US Housing Market index

Outlook for Today

Today, we expect the Indian Markets to open in the red in line with global cues and remain lower in the day. Among the sectoral indices, Banking and Auto stocks could underperform.

Sources- HDFCSEC

Weekly Market Wrap- When all hope is lost… hope beckons!

After rising smartly last week, the week gone by saw the Sensex/Nifty attempting to move higher. They however found resistance at the 17004/5099 levels and slid lower. The selling pressure intensified in the last two sessions of the week as the bears got the upper hand. W-o-W, while the Sensex lost 3.83%, the Nifty lost 3.63% over the same period. Market breadth was negative in two out of the four trading sessions of the week.

Key events

Global Markets

U.S. government reported that the number of people filing for initial unemployment benefits fell to a 9-month low of 381,000 in the latest week. Wholesale inventories for the month of October came in higher-than-expected at 1.6%. U.S. consumer credit rose by $7.7 billion in October, or 3.7% an annual rate, the Federal Reserve said. The trade deficit probably widened in October as a strengthening U.S. economy helped drive up the nation's import bill while exports cooled from a record high. The gap grew to $44 billion from the prior month's $43.1 billion shortfall that was the smallest this year.

European Central Bank took steps to revive the ailing European economy and ease credit conditions for troubled EURO zone banks. But ECB president Mario Draghi offered no indication that he is willing to intervene aggressively in the bond market, stressing that the onus is on European governments to resolve the debt crisis. China's inflation reached a 14-month low and industrial production rose less than forecast, bolstering the case for more stimulus measures to shore up growth in the world's second-largest economy. Japan's economy grew less than the government's initial estimate last quarter as companies reduced investment on concern overseas demand was stalling. Gross domestic product increased at an annualized 5.6 percent in the three months ended Sept. 30.

The European statistics agency, Eurostat, estimated that eurozone economy grew 0.2% in the third quarter.

S&P said it might also cut the AAA rating of Europe's bailout fund. The fund needs that top rating to cheaply raise money, and losing it would mean it would cost billions more to fund bailouts.

Indian Markets

India's exports grew by 33.2% to $192.7 billion in the April-November period of the 2011-12 financial year. The country's imports also rose by 30.2% to $309.5 billion during the period, leaving a trade gap of $116.8 billion. India's manufacturing sector expansion slowed in November as factory output grew at its slowest pace in nearly three years although export demand should provide some cheer for factories. HSBC Markit India Manufacturing PMI fell to 51.0 from 52.0 in October, but has stayed above the 50 mark that divides growth from contraction for 32 months. Food inflation declined to 8% in the week ended November 19 from 9.01% in the preceding week. Inflation in the Primary Articles group fell to 7.74% in the week under review, from 9.08%. Inflation in the Fuel & Power group stood at 15.53% in the week ended November 19 versus 15.49% in the previous week.

India's services sector expanded in November for the first time in two months as new business accelerated despite persistent inflationary pressures. HSBC Markit Business Activity Index -- based on a survey of around 400 firms -- stood at 53.2 in November.

Outlook of the week starting 19/12

Looks like we are toast. And also looks like this new year party would be all about how we have lost money for good. Well as with all disaster movies that show crises after crises hitting the protagonist and finally victory and well earned at that; I am sure that just on the other side of 2011 there will be a strong recovery we would all be proud of. Asides, for the next couple of weeks, particularly week starting 19/12 I would imagine that we are hitting the slowness in the scheme of things. General lethargy to trade and look at the markets. People would look at an alibi to postpone purchases of stocks and consequent low volumes.

This is actually a good time to cherry pick in the large cap names. Nice time to have them all, at a price that you have been waiting for. Remember, just like all good things come to an end; bad things DO come to an end to. So stock up as always said, till stocks last.

Sources:

HDFC Securities Weekly wrap of the Market

Right Horizons Equity Desk for Outlook for the coming week

NIFTY RIP !!!!!!!!....

Well I actually am going overboard on explaining the situation, but with Dr. Subbu going into a freeze mode and waiting a bit more to do anything, the bears are all out to bludgeon whichever bull they lay their sight on. The trickle post the policy has assumed biblical proportion of sell off by the time we hit 1500hrs on the clock. At the time of close, all the heavy weights took cover or were beating down severely. L&T was begging to let go at INR1075, Jaiprakash looks like will hit INR55, BHEL lost all power at INR240 and SAIL lost INR75. Moreover, there was blood over the non-index stocks particularly in the mid/small cap space. There were more than a handful of the respected names or darling of the past few weeks down over 10% each.

Stressful names such as a 3i Infotech are now kissing double digits and soon appear to go the Satyam way. Unfortunately, there will be no government to bail out this time; since this time the government needs a bailout from Team Anna playing truant for almost 6 months.

I believe with the kind of closing we have had today, looks like we are heading for pt. 4600 on the Nifty and stagnate at lower levels then before. For the next six months into the new year we could be very listless. However look at it this way. For entire 2011 calendar we would now in all likelihood close around 25% or so down than at the start of the year. My sense is that for 2012 from the beginning to the end we should close a big positive. Whether we close year 2012 by 15%, 20% or in single digits would be a matter of great debate.

Next week on, we enter a listless and slow and downward journey to the close of the year and into earnings early 2012. Until then, just cannot help.

Morning Bell !!......The Sensex rebounded with more than 100 points gains on Friday after sharp appreciation in the rupee

Indian Markets

The Sensex rebounded with more than 100 points gains on Friday after sharp appreciation in the rupee. Even globally, the US economic data and Spanish bond auction improved sentiments yesterday. At the moment, all eyes are on the RBI's mid-quarter review of monetary policy expected today at 12 noon.

The Sensex was up 148.6 points at 15,985.07 and the Nifty was trading at 4,791.95, up 45.60. Banks, capital goods, telecom, auto and metals stocks gained.

US and European Markets

U.S. stocks closed higher on Thursday on upbeat jobs and manufacturing reports, but investors said the market remains nervous about the European debt crisis. Dow Jones rose 45 points, or 0.4%, to close at 11,869. S&P 500 rose 4 points, or 0.3%. Nasdaq added 2 points, or 0.1%, to 2,541.

European shares have closed sharply lower and the euro tumbled to near one-year dollar lows. The pessimistic mood was fuelled by fresh concerns the measures trumpeted at last week's EU summit will not solve the eurozone debt crisis. Britain's FTSE 100 rose 0.6%, DAX in Germany gained 1% and France's CAC 40 added 0.8%.

All the Indian ADRS ended in the green with Tata Communications gaining the most (4.2%) while MTNL and Satyam rose by 2.2% and 1.7% respectively. Tata Motors ended higher by 0.7% while Infosys and HDFC Bank gained 0.5% each. ICICI Bank and Wipro rose by 0.4% and 0.1% respectively.

Asian Markets

Today, all the Asian indices are trading in the green except Shanghai, which is down marginally. Kospi is trading higher by 0.5% while Nikkei and Strait Times are down 0.3% each. Hang Seng and Taiwan are down by 0.2% and 0.1% respectively. SGX Nifty is trading higher today by 5.5 points.

Currencies

The Indian rupee continued its downward spiral against the US dollar on Thursday, hitting another record low due to concerns over the eurozone debt crisis and weak domestic data.

Commodities

Among the metals, Copper and Zinc lost 1.2% and 0.2% respectively. Aluminium and Nickel gained 0.6% and 0.1% respectively. Oil for January delivery fell $1.08 to $93.87 a barrel. Gold futures for February delivery fell $9.70 to $1,577.20 an ounce.

Key events to watch for today

India Mid-Quarter Review of Monetary Policy

US Fed Balance Sheet, Money Supply, CPI

EU Merchandise Trade

Outlook for Today

Today, we expect the Indian Markets to open in the green in line with global cues. Today?s Mid Quarterly Review of the Monetary Policy would be keenly watched for further course of action.

Source-hdfcsec

My Daily Rant.....Fistfight at Pt. 4747

Imagine this. 3 balls remaining 8 runs to win and 8 wickets down. SIX of the ball. 2 balls remaining 2 runs needed 2 wickets. Bowled. 1 ball remaining 1 wicket in hand, spinner bowling who as taken 5 wickets already and a tail ender batting who does not know how to hold the bat. Who wins? The batting side or the bowling side. There is more. There is a slight drizzle on the ground and the umpires are asking for a break.

This is exactly what has happened in the market today. We went down deep with no hope of rescuing pt. 4747 (the triple bottom technical point) and between 1400hrs and 1530hrs what a finish. We have actually closed at pt. 4747. The man of the match is clearly the big daddy of the stock market RIL which pulled up the market by rising 1.11% while most of the market bigwigs were wilting. Power and capital goods continued to fall from grace. Autos taking a beating too, despite good sales numbers in November 2011. Banks too had been weak most part of the day.

So on the D-day that was today the market provided enough climax to all and sundry. Now the next question, since Mt. 4747 is retained and with Dr. Subbu doing the magic tomorrow; what lies ahead. I would imagine that we are headed for a marginal uptick and also could do a nice little bounce from these levels.

The global situation, as always could be a spoiler though, and we know that it was because of the global show that we are where we are. And with that picture slowing down due to holiday season in a week’s time, it might be a painful tread uphill.

Will keep you guys updated on what Dr. Subbu does tomorrow. My sense is that he is just going to pull a Telugu Rabbit from his hat and say “Yelavunddi” { How is it?}

Morning Bell !!!!........A fresh record low for the rupee 54.27 to dollar

Indian Markets

The key Indian stock benchmarks have taken a beating, as a combination of domestic and global headwinds continue to keep investors at bay despite reasonable valuations. A fresh record low for the rupee, coupled with the overnight selloff across asset classes has dented investor confidence this morning. A big headache for Indian policymakers at the moment is the unrelenting slide in the rupee. With the dollar in great demand and macro-economic fundamentals weak, the pressure is likely to continue on the Indian currency. That may, in turn keep FII inflows depressed. In short, things could worsen before they start looking up again. So, brace for some more volatility and uncertainty.

US and European Markets

U.S. stocks tumbled on Wednesday as the European debt crisis continued to weigh on the markets and a stronger dollar dragged down commodities prices. Dow Jones sank 131 points, or 1.1%, to 11,823. S&P 500 fell 14 points, or 1.1%. to 1,212. Nasdaq shed 40 points, or 1.5%, to 2,539.

European shares have closed sharply lower and the euro tumbled to near one-year dollar lows. The pessimistic mood was fuelled by fresh concerns the measures trumpeted at last week's EU summit will not solve the eurozone debt crisis. Britain's FTSE 100 fell 2.3%, Germany's DAX slid 1.7% and France's CAC 40 shed 3.3%.

Asian Markets

Today, all the Asian indices are trading in the red with Hang Seng and Shanghai trading lower by 2.3% and 256 respectively. Kospi and Taiwan are down by 1.9% and 1.8% respectively. Strait Times and Nikkei are trading lower by 1.4% and 1.3% respectively. As of IST 8.44 am, SGX Nifty is trading lower today by 61.5 points.

Currencies 

The Indian rupee hit yet another record low on Wednesday as worse-than-expected inflation data and the US Fed?s decision to hold back on new stimulus steps heightened fears that capital outflows from emerging economies such as India could accelerate.

Commodities

Among the metals, Zinc lost the most (3.5%) while Copper and Nickel ended lower by 3.3% each. Aluminium fell by 2.4%. Oil for January delivery fell $5.19 to $94.95 a barrel. Gold futures for February delivery sank $76.20 to $1,586.90 an ounce.

Key events to watch for today

India WPI Data Weekly

EU PMI Manufacturing Index

EU PMI Services Index

US Jobless Claims

US PPI Data

US Industrial Production Data

US EIA Natural Gas Report

Outlook for Today

Today, we expect the Indian Markets to open lower on the back of negative global cues. Among the sectoral indices, Capital Goods, Realty and Metals stocks could underperform

Source- RH Morning market update, HDFCSEC

Morning Bell !!!!.....A new all-time low for the Indian Rupee is affecting the sentiment

Indian Markets

The main Indian equity benchmarks resumed their southbound journey after rising modestly in the previous session, as investors continue to fret over the worsening macro-economic landscape for the domestic economy. A new all-time low for the Indian Rupee is also affecting the sentiment even as the US dollar strengthened versus major rivals.

US and European Markets

U.S. stocks ended in the red Tuesday, giving up an earlier rally, after the Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged and issued a tepid outlook. Dow Jones lost 66 points, or 0.6%; S&P 500 was fell 11 points, or 0.9%; and Nasdaq dropped 33 points, or 1.3%.

European stocks rebounded from their biggest slide in three weeks, as Spain sold more securities than it had planned at a debt auction and a report showed that investor confidence in Germany improved. European stocks finished mixed. Britain's FTSE 100 ticked up 1%, while DAX in Germany fell 0.3% and France's CAC 40 edged down 0.8%.

Asian Markets

Today, all the Asian indices are trading in the red except Shanghai, which is trading higher by 0.2%. Nikkei is trading lower by 0.4% while Taiwan and Strait Times are down by 0.1% each. Hang Seng and Kospi are down marginally. As of IST 8.42 am, SGX Nifty is trading lower today by 41 points.

Currencies

The euro fell to an 11-month low against the dollar on concern European leaders won't agree on ways to expand the region's rescue capacities as debt-strapped nations struggle to fund their deficits.

The Indian rupee on Tuesday breached the 53-per dollar mark, with investors continuing to shift their preference towards the dollar, as the country heads for an economic slowdown. According to dealers, the rupee is likely to remain under pressure, as not much intervention is expected from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI).

Commodities

Among the metals, Nickel rose by 0.8% while Zinc lost 1.3%. Aluminium and Copper fell by 0.3% each. Oil for January delivery rose $2.37 to settle at $100.14 a barrel. Gold futures for February delivery fell $5.10 to settle at $1,663.10 an ounce.

Key events to watch for today

India WPI Inflation - Monthly

US FMOC meeting announcement

EIA Petroleum Status report

EU - Industrial Production

Canada - Manufacturing Sales

Outlook for Today

Today, we expect the Indian Markets to open in the red and trade in a range through the day. If today inflation figures are disappointing, the possibility of CRR rate cut gets reduced and markets could take this negatively

Sources-hdfcsec

My Daily Rant......Near death experience!!!!

What a day!! I am almost certain that during the course of today all technical analyst would have had their heart in their mouths. Today’s session was akin to having an NDE (for the uninitiated on NDE please see here) of sorts for the investor and speculators alike. When we were below the dreaded 4747 pt on the Nifty for a few moments it felt like this stops at below this level for the day and there we slid into the abyss. Then the spectacular happened, we slowly pulled up and stabilized around the 4760 mark several times testing the patience. And finally, there was a rocket effort to take it away to glory and way above the dreaded 4747 closing.

Several questions come to mind here.

First, where did the rocket come from? The buying interest that came in the last few minutes of the session; was it from genuine delivery based guys taking long term position or was it from speculative short covering folks.

Second, with all stocks but a few holding in the green for better part of the day, was there a lot of bottom fishing going on in the names that were deep in the red?

Finally, is this pull back for real?

The best part of the market is that we are still two session away from any meaningful event that is yet to happen in the Indian context, the RBI policy review on Friday. So it would be interesting to see that this pullback or whatever has happened today stays afloat tomorrow and day after as well. Else we could be having an NDE2 and NDE3 very soon. Don’t worry it doesn’t work that way. Normally in any person’s life cycle there is only one NDE and if we indeed had one today, then the market should be in safe zone now.

Very interesting period for the asset markets I must admit; savor all the moments; as unidirectional bull markets – once in full flow would really be quite boring. Besides, when even your auto wallah investing and telling you an investing tip or two is not the best thing to happen anyways.

Enjoy while the climax on the market is on.

Morning Bell !!!.........The Indian rupee crossed the 53 to the dollar today - fresh all-time low.

Indian Markets

The Sensex dropped about 100 points in opening trade following negative global cues. But it managed to recover some of its early losses soon after. The fall was after the reports that European Union may face downgrade from rating agencies. The Sensex was trading at 15,813.96, down 56.39 points amid volatility. Meanwhile, the Nifty slipped 18.7 points to 4,745.90.

US & European Markets

U.S. stocks tumbled in a broad sell-off Monday amid growing investor doubt that Europe's debt crisis will actually be resolved, and a sales warning from chipmaker Intel. Dow Jones slid 163 points, or 1.3%, while S&P 500 lost 19 points, or 1.5%, and Nasdaq dropped 35 points, or 1.3%. Earlier, all three major indexes had declined about 2%.

European stocks closed sharply lower. Britain's FTSE 100 slipped 1.5%, DAX in Germany dropped 3.1% and France's CAC 40 fell 2.3%.

Asian Markets

Today all the Asian indices are trading in the red with Nikkei and Kospi trading lower by 1.5% each while Hang Seng is down 1.2%. Shanghai and Taiwan are down by 1% and 0.9% respectively. Strait Times is down 0.7%. As per IST 9.04 am SGX Nifty is trading lower by 42 points.

Currencies

The Indian rupee tumbled to its all-time low as jittery global investors pulled out funds amid fast deteriorating economic health with the index of industrial production contracting more than 5%, and higher than reported trade deficit after government admitted to $9 billion of inflated export figures. The Indian rupee crossed the 53 to the dollar today - fresh all-time low. It was trading at 53.17 to the dollar, down 33 paise. It fell 82 paise to 70.19 an euro.

Commodities

Among the metals, Copper fell the most 2.3% while Aluminium and Zinc lost 1.8% and 1.5% respectively. Nickel fell by 0.3%. Oil for January delivery slipped $1.64 to settle at $97.77 a barrel. Gold futures for February delivery fell $48.60 to settle at $1,668.20 an ounce.

Outlook

Today, the Indian market is likely to open in the red following weak global cues and move downwards during the day. Among the sectoral indices, Banking and IT stocks could underperform.

Sources- hdfcsec

Self inflicted wounds!

What can a number do? A lot, especially if it contains anything letters such as IIP, GDP, CRR etc preceding it. Today was the day of one such number - the IIP. What did it do? It came out of the government bag and dragged down the markets meaningfully. The IIP which reflects the production activity of the country and is released on a monthly basis fell 5.7% signaling a falling output and lower industrial activity. This means that at least on the industrial production side, the growth overall for the entire year could be meaningfully lower than that of last year. Secondly, since the industrial activity is an important component of GDP this would also have an impact on GDP numbers being soft and so the vicious cycle of one number affecting the other has begun.

The market were quick to catch the bout of cold and went into a tizzy. Within no time we were all over the place with key names in the Nifty falling off and rubbing off onto another the selling momentum. The notable crashlings included L&T, JP Associates, all power companies, Steel companies real estate segment and to a meaningful extent Autos. Probably, IT and Pharma were kept out, since the first does not care what happens in India (they care more of what happens half way across the globe) and the second – no matter what would not face any difficulty selling pills and syringes to the folks.

Now the action would move over the Dr. Subbarao who would pull out anything worth pulling out from the hat to soothe the frayed nerves. This is expected to happen on the 16th of December 2011. But until that time, I would imagine that this selling frenzy could last a bit longer than envisaged. With alternate bouts of selling and cooling.

The market in all probability is headed for the amongst the worst yearly (calendar) close (barring 2008) for the past decade. So while all and sundry are gearing up for new years in a couple of weeks; am sure this part of the country (IB folks, brokers et al) are going to eat just bread & butter for Christmas.

However, hope floats eternal in the land called India. 2012 is a fresh year for business.