Right Horizons

If you have been left out!

2012-02-27T18:27:00.003+05:30

The past few days when the stellar rally reached peaking levels, am sure there was a large section of people who has been feeling left out to make a quick 20% on their money and make a killing. The ideal utopian scenario or for someone who could see tomorrow, it could have been easy – enter equities in December and move out in February 2012; thus making a cool 20% and walking away, to put money in FD’s. If it were that simple, then we would have been out of business before I could have finished typing this.

But for those who have always felt that their timing skills are pathetic and that they end up losing almost each time they invest in equities, I guess is that over the next few weeks, their chance to enter and make money would be high. The only problem – which is as old as man himself is with an emotion called ‘Greed’ – he/she wants to almost always catch the peak and trough and proclaim that he is Buffet’s granddad.

But for this emotion, I think for that bunch of people who missed the bus in December 2011, chances are that he could have a chance to invest around those levels could come true. So fortune favors the brave, and one must remember that the bus timing are limited and you just cannot push your luck by skipping busses for the choicest of seats, just hop on to enjoy the ride.

Today’s session was akin to a mini sell off and now is on the back of EU nations still trying very hard to do everything possible to find a solution to the imbroglio. There are consequences for oneself and other on actions when each one of us is standing closely on a ramp and similarly whatever happens to EU in terms of QE3 and monetary easing would definitely impact us asset markets. As has been in the past, the driving force of our markets has been and would be (till the near future) foreign funds flows. The effect of huge fiscal stimulus would definitely impact our / global asset markets.

So while today’s session looks like we are going back to stone age, actually this might the umpteenth time that we are getting a fresh bus to board, but if we “assume” that this will keep happening forever, then we are just making an ‘ass’ of ‘u’ and ‘me’

So time not to fret, take a deep breath, close your eyes and take the plunge.

Morning Be!!.....Sensex has lost ~100 points while the NSE Nifty has dropped below 5400 in the early morning trade

2012-02-27T10:10:00.001+05:30

Indian Markets

The main Indian stock indices have kicked off the new trading day and new week on a weak note, extending losses from the last week when the two frontline indices snapped a seven-session winning streak. The BSE Sensex has lost ~100 points while the NSE Nifty has dropped below 5400 in the early morning trade. The Sensex has fallen below the 18,000 mark on Friday.

NSE Nifty was quoting 5,410, down 18 points over the previous close. It has earlier touched a day’s high of 5,449 and a day’s low of 5,406. It opened at 5,448.

The BSE Mid-Cap index was trading down 0.33%, while BSE Small-Cap index was trading flat.

FMCG and Oil and Gas indices are the gainers.

HC, Metal, PSU, Consumer Durables, IT, Power,Auto, Bankex, Realty indices are the losers.

TCS, HDFC Bank, Coal India, ONGC, Sterlite Inds, ITC, Sun Pharma, HUL were among the notable leaders in the Sensex and the Nifty.

Infosys, Wipro, Reliance Infra, RPower, RCOM, DLF, ICICI Bank, M&M, Tata Motors, BHEL,L&T,Hero MotoCorp,Tata Steel,ICICI Bank,Hindalco Inds,SBI were among the notable losers in the Sensex and the Nifty.

The market breadth is weak as the Mid-Cap shares are under-performing the Large-Cap indices. Realty and Capital Goods indices are the biggest laggards so far (down 2-2.5%) followed by Consumer Durables, Banking, Power, Auto and Metals (down 1-2%).

FMCG and Oil & Gas indices are the leaders so far while Pharma, IT, Teck and PSU indices are marginally lower.

Currency

The Rupee ended below 49-mark at 48.93/94 - its three-week high level against the Dollar on sustained dollar selling by exporters and some banks.

Key events to watch for today

India IIP (Y-o-Y)

Today’s Outlook

Today, we expect the Indian Markets to open marginally lower and remain volatile in a range throughout the session. Immediate support for Nifty is at 5400, while resistance is at 5535 levels. Among the sectoral indices, Capital Goods & Realty look weak, while Metals & IT look good and could outperform.

Sources- HDFCSEC, IIFL

Tax breaks for education loan & tuition fee!

2012-02-24T18:03:00.000+05:30

Beyond the obvious benefits of good education, it also helps that the funds one deploys for education could actually help avail tax breaks. This not a much used avenue for saving taxes, primarily because of lack of awareness. Here is a brief on how one could use the education loan and tuition fee to reduce tax liability…

Education Loan – qualifies under section 80E

Apart from the home loan, this is another loan liability that provides tax breaks. However, do note that unlike the home loan where the entire EMI including both interest and principal would qualify for tax benefit, incase of the education loan, only the interest part would qualify as tax benefit. There is no maximum limit on the interest that one can claim.

The interest rate on educational loans would typically be slightly higher than that of the home loan and marginally lower than that of personal loan. The onus of repayment would lie on the student, and normally repayment will have to start within 6 months of placement or 1 year after completion of the course, whichever is earlier. One can claim the tax deduction for a period of 8 years’ from the year from which the loan repayment is initiated.

The scope of the deduction includes loan taken for the individual, spouse or children (assessee being legal guardian). From assessment year 2010-11, the Government has extended the benefit in Section 80E to all streams of studies including regular courses as well as vocational courses, pursued after passing the Senior Secondary Examination from a recognized Board. The course has to be a full

Morning Bell........NSE Nifty is back above the 5,500 mark after closing below it in the previous session.

2012-02-24T10:23:00.002+05:30

Indian Market

The frontline Indian stock indices have posted decent gains in early morning trade, reversing two days of losses. The NSE Nifty is back above the 5,500 mark after closing below it in the previous session.

The market breadth is positive as the broader indices have resumed their upswing following a two-day pause. Most sectoral indices on the BSE are in the positive territory, led by Consumer Durables, Realty, Metals and Power indices. Teck, Capital Goods, Auto and PSU indices too are up smartly.

Citigroup is believed to have sold 145mn shares at ~Rs 670 per share.The block sale of HDFC shares is likely to fetch Citigroup ~US$2bn, according to reports. The stake sale in HDFC is part of the US bank's efforts to shore up its capital base to meet new global banking rules.

Global Market

Most Asian markets are trading higher, although not by a great deal, as investors cheered economic reports out of the US and Germany.

US stock indices managed moderate gains on Thursday, with the S&P 500 index ending near a 10-month high, as investors welcomed a couple of encouraging economic statistics.

European stock indices closed mixed as a downbeat growth outlook by the European Commission offset an upbeat reading on German business confidence.

coming back to India, the seven-week winning streak is under some threat after two relatively weak sessions. The main indices could close the week in red for the first time this year. It is not necessarily a bad thing. A pause is always healthy after such a rise. For those who missed the rally, such corrections could be a blessing in disguise.

The Indian market could consolidate in a sideways fashion in the near term. Most participants won’t want to take a chance in the run up to important domestic events next month. At the same time, uncertainties over the European debt crisis and geopolitical tensions persist.

Technical Outlook

A ‘doji’ like formation in Thursday's trading session indicates indecisiveness after a bearish engulfing pattern on Wednesday. Any upmove beyond 5570 has the potential to negate the bearish structure and reinforce bullish momentum. One should wait for a breakout above 5570 to initiate fresh long positions.

Currency

The Indian Rupee strengthened for a second day vis-a-vis the US Dollar as exchange data showed foreign investors stepped up purchases of the nation's bonds. Dollar inflows also supported the Indian currency, although traders said this was balanced by dollar demand from oil importers through much of the day.

Today’s Outlook

Today, the Indian Markets could open flat to marginally in the positive and remain volatile in a narrow range. We expect the market to witness resistance at higher levels and correct during the latter half of the session. On the downside, Nifty has a strong support at 5450, while the resistance is at 5535. Among the sectoral indices, Realty & Metals continue to look weak, while FMCG, Oil & Gas & Power could outperform.

Sources-IIFL, hdfcsec

Morning Bell.....Nifty opening below the 5500 level amid volatility

2012-02-23T10:22:00.000+05:30

Indian Market

The Nifty was subdued in an early trade, opening below the 5500 level amid volatility. Consistent inflow of foreign money has been supporting the market whereas on other side, concerns like rising oil prices, disappointing economic data from major continents like US & Europe still weighed on the market.

The main Indian equity benchmarks have turned virtually flat after a positive opening, tracking weakness in most Asian markets. Markets in the US and Europe also ended in the red on Wednesday amid concern that the long-running debt crisis in the eurozone was having an adverse impact on the global economy.

Wednesday’s drop was only the second such fall this year. That goes to show the groove that the market is in, thanks largely to the liquidity deluge unleashed by global central banks. Wednesday’s provisional FII figure should provide some succor on the F&O expiry day.

Global Market
Doubts over the effectiveness of the second bailout for Greece is also acting as a dampener for the world equity markets following a strong start to the year. Fitch Ratings cut Greece's sovereign credit rating to C from CCC. The eurozone's composite PMI fell in February, raising the specter of recession. Europe and Greece may continue to be in the spotlight in the coming days as well.

Commodities
Crude is at a nine-month peak while gold is at three-month high. The dollar is at seven-month high vs. the yen. We could see a choppy session with intraday gyrations possibly peaking in the afternoon.

Today’s Outlook
Today, the Indian Markets could open on a flat note and remain volatile in a narrow range. It might make an attempt to inch higher during the day, but is likely to find resistance at higher levels. On the downside, Nifty has a strong support at 5450. The immediate resistance for Nifty is at 5560. Among the sectoral indices, Auto, Realty, Capital Goods & Banks are looking weak and could underperform, while FMCG & Oil & Gas could outperform.
Sources-IIFL, hdfcsec, ET, moneycontrol

Morning Bell.......The Nifty has surpassed 5600, while the Sensex is near 18,500. Both the indices have rallied 18% YTD on the back of heavy FII inflows. Last year they lost 25% each.

2012-02-22T10:25:00.000+05:30

Indian Market

The key Indian equity benchmarks have gained modestly in early minutes of trade, tracking a recovery in some Asian peers. The market breadth is favorable for the bulls as the broader indices too are up smartly. Most sectoral indices on the BSE are in the positive terrain.

A meaningful correction may have eluded us so far this year but could hit us anytime given that the market has entered the so-called overbought zone. The question troubling many participants is: how long can this liquidity-driven ‘risk on’ rally last? The Nifty has surpassed 5600, while the Sensex is near 18,500. Both the indices have rallied 18% YTD on the back of heavy FII inflows. Last year they lost ~25% each.

The MCX IPO launches today and will be open for three days. The issue is likely to receive very good response from all categories of investors. Whether the MCX IPO will revive the comatose primary market remains to be seen.

Sterlite Industries and Sesa Goa could be in the spotlight amid reports of Vedanta Group Plc mulling a merger of the two companies. Kingfisher Airlines has received a lifeline from SBI and thus could recover. RIL has announced a JV with Russia’s Sibur for butyl rubber.

Gujarat Pipavav and KSB Pumps will declare their results today.

Global Market

European indices fell despite Greece getting another rescue package. US benchmarks finished flat. Back home, retail level inflation is still elevated. Crude prices too remain uncomfortable. Liquidity continues to be tight, stoking speculation of another CRR cut in March. A rate cut may take a while to materialize. The Union Budget is another domestic event to look forward to in the coming days apart from the outcome of UP elections.

Technical Outlook

The earlier resistance of 5550 has now turned into a strong support for the Nifty. The current rally has the potential to stretch till 5700 in the coming days. Hence, we recommend adding long positions on every dip with a stop loss placed at 5550 on a closing basis.

Today’s Outlook

Today, the Indian Markets are likely to open marginally lower following negative Asian cues and than could remain range bound during the day. While the underlying trend is up profit booking during the day cannot be ruled out. The immediate support level to watch is 5550 while the immediate resistance levels to watch are 5660 and 5890. Among the sectoral indices, Realty and Consumer Durables appear strong and Health Care and IT appear weak.

Sources- hdfcsec,IIFL

Greek bailout dance!

2012-02-22T09:45:00.001+05:30

Post the earnings for Q3 FY12 which has been decent to say the least; the action has now decisively shifted to Greece and what would happen with default or a bailout. In all likelihood, it looks like the EU prefers a bailout to a default and the flow of funds has morphed into a fountain of life (which flows perennially) in the European Union. The funny thing is that all of the asset managers who matter (read who influence the world markets) just go with the flow; which means that just like the YEN carry trade the same thing now is likely and is happening with the Euro. This Euro carry trade, it is estimated would happen at least over the next 4-6 months.

So when these taps of liquidity flow, they tend to go to the shallowest of corners of the plain; which means places like Asia where the engines are still hot and running.

An interesting piece that I keep following on a periodic basis is in the link above and this summarizes what is happening with the situation across the risk markets today. I found this piece very interesting. In summary, suffice to say that though we are doing excellent at this moment, we are not out of the woods yet. Far from it.

Finally, today’s session, was about higher ground and even more optimism and now actually bordering on “pushing the envelop” which is why getting too much carried away at this moment is a thing one should be very wary about. Though it appears that we are very close to the onset of a nice and steady bull rally, the “stars” are yet to align in a perfect setting for the same.

Morning Bell...Greek bailout package renewed hopes among investors.

2012-02-21T10:13:00.001+05:30

Headlines

The Sensex opened flat on Tuesday to make a swift upward move as news of a Greek bailout package renewed hopes among investors. The Sensex was trading 87 points up at 18,375.94 and the Nifty was gaining grounds with a 26 point up move to 5,590.25.

Indian Market

The key Indian stock indices advanced modestly in early morning trade amid media reports that euro area finance ministers had reached an agreement on a second bailout package for Greece. The euro gained versus the US dollar while crude oil futures also rose after the announcement. US stock futures were also trading higher and Asian benchmarks pared some of the intraday losses.

The BSE Sensex surpassed 18,400 while the NSE Nifty crossed 5,600 in opening minutes of trade on the back of strength in Capital Goods, Realty and Power stocks. Select stocks in Oil & Gas, Metals, FMCG, PSU, Banking and Pharma sectors are also trading higher. On the other hand, Consumer Durables, IT and Teck indices are in the red.

The market breadth is positive as the Small-Cap and Mid-Cap indices are marginally out-performing the frontline indices. The BSE Small-Cap index was up ~0.8% while the BSE Mid-Cap index rose ~0.6%.

Technical Outlook

The NSE Nifty broke out above 5430 last week and closed comfortably above the resistance of 5550. This upmove happened despite uncertainty over Greece and higher oil prices. The ‘spinning top formation ’on Friday showed indecisiveness among the traders but any positive opening today would be suffice to extend the rally towards 5700. There is a 'left out' feeling in the market and every one is waiting for a dip to initiate long positions.

Outlook

Today, the Indian Markets could open lower following negative Asian cues and remain volatile in a range. The markets are likely to take cues from Dow Futures & European markets during the latter half of the session for any further direction. If the much-awaited Greek debt deal goes through, then the optimism could take the markets further higher. Immediate upside target for the Nifty is at 5700. However, weakness could emerge if the supports of 5500-5475 are broken. Among the sectoral indices, Capital Goods, IT & Banks look good, while Auto & Healthcare could underperform.

Sources-IIFL,HDFC SEC

Weekly Market Snapshot....Nifty breaking out of its recent highs of 5428 and continuing its uptrend

2012-02-18T14:14:00.001+05:30

Indian Market

After taking a breather last week, the week gone by saw the Nifty breaking out of its recent highs of 5428 and continuing its uptrend. The Nifty thereby ended with W-o-W gains of 3.4%. It was the seventh consecutive week of gains for the Nifty.

A new long term bull market was also confirmed in the process as the Nifty moved above its previous long term highs of 5400.Reflecting the positive price action seen this week, market breadth was positive in four out of the five trading sessions of the week.

With the liquidity flow continuing relentlessly, indices have no other way but to look up. The truncated week could see some wild swings though. The left out feeling is there in some quarters and a few are wary of the sudden rise and may prefer to sell into the strength. The week will give some opportunities to get in as the global macro factors could cause a temporary cooling anytime.

Global Markets

Among the global factors to watch out for there is Greece which is showing signs of pressure as the country faces a March 20 bond redemption totaling 14.5 billion euros ($19 billion). While the nation’s political leaders have signed up for fiscal retrenchment and detailed 325 million euros in new budget cuts for this year, euro-area governments have yet to approve a second bailout of 130 billion euros

Also, ECB's second tranche of the LTRO is due at the end of February and many see at least a similar take-up of funds as was seen in December. It may be recalled that more than 500 banks across Europe borrowed €489bn from the ECB at 1% in December

Key Events

PM takes steps to address coal supply issues for power projects

Inflation falls below 7% in January

Outlook of the week

With the underlying trend remaining up on all time frames (Short term, intermediate and long term), traders will need to watch if the Nifty can hold above the immediate supports of 5500-5475 in the coming week. A close below these supports could lead to some more weakness in the markets. On the upside, our immediate targets are at the next intermediate highs of 5702.

Sources-hdfcsec, IIFL

Diwali 2012, Christmas 2011 or ongoing Chinese new year?

2012-02-17T18:03:00.000+05:30

When we were hiking in the Right Horizons offsite that was held in November 2011, I remember that every minute of the climb would appear pretty ok in terms of strain that one was undergoing, and the ground appeared fairly ok to climb – with not real apparent steepness, except at certain places. However, when the climb was over post the 30-45 minute trek and you reached the top; you turned to see some stunning views. More important, in the 30 minute trek, you had slowly but surely climbed some serious distance to the top was evident only from the peak and not from the intermediate points of the climb.

Since January 2012 to today, while it might have appeared that the market has indeed climbed and given good returns, just look back now and you know what has happened. YTD, the Nifty index has gained 20.33% and this has to be seen in the context of what has happened in the entire of 2011, since for the entire year we were down around 24% and in 45 days we are close to recover what we lost in an entire year. So you lose patience and do stupid things and the markets punish you on both sides. You take out money saying you always lose money in stock markets and then pulling a fast one on you by rising so fast that you would think that I could have waited.

Today’s session has been quite relentless in terms of rising nature of the market. Everyone is expecting a fall, and these are times where the market would surprise you on the upside too; jus the same way it did last year. When everyone expected the fall to stop at every lower level. He who has been just putting money and averaging at every level must be a happy and content man.

For now it looks like the Shewag blitzkerg, all the way. In a way it also looks like Diwali is coming in way to early for comfort, or you could also argue that it is still Christmas of 2011; better still the ongoing Chinese New Year. Happy New year.

Impact of Rate cut..

2012-02-17T17:39:00.000+05:30

The RBI, after a long hiatus, finally cut rates for a change. Over the last 18 months, interest rates have been increased 13 times in a row. The new year came with some good news on the monetary front. The rate cut of 50 bps (from 6% to 5.5%) on CRR (Cash Reserve Ratio) was a welcome change - CRR is the percentage of bank deposit that lenders have to keep with the RBI and this reduction is expected to inject Rs. 32,000 crore liquidity into the economy.. The cut in CRR is seen as a first step towards softening inflation substantially. In addition to this, the lending rates on Home loans, auto loans and personal loans etc would also come down.

The rate cut logic

Even given that it would not be an unmixed blessing, the rate cut was predominantly mooted due to the stress that it laid on the economic growth. There have been repeated revisions in the GDP guidance and negative sentiments on growth prospects in the economy. The rates cuts have been triggered with the motive to rein in inflation, maintain the GDP growth at decent levels and improve sentiments in the economy.

Post the interest rate cut it is anticipated that there would be lowering in interest rates on loans – retail / corporate alike. It is also expected that the banks would use the additional liquidity to lend more money thereby creating a robust economic environment which will in turn help boost GDP growth.

Fixed Deposits / Bonds – riding the wave

Fixed income instruments became popular with every upward revision of interest rates, but now given that there is not that much of a dearth of liquidity in the economy; the prevailing high interest rates are likely to drop a notch lower. In no time, the interest rates on long term fixed deposits and bonds can moderate. For those who have been prudent to lock-in the prevailing interest rates, it is time to feel proud about yourself. For those who lost out on this opportunity, better late than never is what we have to say!

Outlook

The rate cut brought great relief to the economy, the investor sentiment and consumer confidence has been restored to some extent atleast. There are telling signs of inflation softening, and this should eventually rub off on the borrowing rates as well. For the fixed income investor, there is still time to lock in the higher interest rates, in the future over a 6-12 month period rates are likely to come off more sharply.

Source-:

Anil rego, CEO Right Horizons

Published in-

Financial Chronicle

Morning Bell......The BSE Sensex opened up 180 points on opening trade

2012-02-17T10:35:00.000+05:30

Indian Market

The BSE Sensex opened up 180 points on opening trade, after indications eurozone officials would soon approve a long-awaited bailout for Greece boosted Asian markets. FIIs have invested nearly USD 4.5 billion in last 44 days. Buying was seen in realty, capital goods, power, consumer durables and banking stocks.

Global Markets

U.S. stocks closed ~1% higher on Thursday as positive domestic economic data comforted investors regarding Greeks second bailout. Investors confidence pushed the Dow to its highest level since May 2008. Nasdaq is back in dot com boom territory hitting a peak it hasn't seen since December 2000.

European markets were in a jittery mood Thursday due to uncertainty over whether Greece will get vital bailout cash to avoid defaulting next month, but more buoyant U.S. jobs data helped shore up sentiment. It finally ended on a flat to positive note. Britain's FTSE 100 fell 0.1%, DAX in Germany dropped 0.1% and France's CAC 40 added 0.1%.

The Indian ADRs ended on a mixed note. Tata Motors, Tata Communications and MTNL ended in red falling by 1.1%, 1.1% and 2.7% respectively. Infosys and Wipro were up by1.1% and 0.6% respectively. Dr Reddys, rose by 0.5% while ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank rose by 0.4% each.

Today, the Asian markets are trading in the green with Shanghai & Hang Seng trading up by 0.1% & 0.8% respectively. Nikkei & Strait Times are trading in the green by 1.8% & 0.5% respectively, while Kospi & Taiwan are trading up by 1.5% & 0.8% respectively. SGX Nifty is trading up by 40.5 points over Thursdays close.

Currencies

The rupee was little changed early on Friday as dollar demand from importers offset the comfort from improved global risk appetite

Outlook

Today, the Indian Markets could open in the green following positive global cues and than remain range bound during the day. The immediate supports to watch are at 5475 and 5435 levels while the immediate resistances are at 5575 and 5600 levels. Among the sectoral indices, Realty, power & Capital Goods could witness some profit taking after a run up yesterday.

Sources-Moneycontrol, HDFCsec

Morning Bell.....Nifty tests 5500,5100 is likely to be a strong support for the Nifty

2012-02-16T12:04:00.001+05:30

Indian Markets

The Sensex was down 89.26 points or 0.49% at 18113.15, and the Nifty was down 28.20 points or 0.51% at 5503.75.

About 1321 shares have advanced, 1078 shares declined, and 1000 shares are unchanged.

The Indian market opened on a negative note tracking weak global cues. The Nifty is now trading at the highest level in more than six months. China reiterated that the country will continue to invest in European government debt to help resolve Europe's debt problems. Key benchmark indices in Hong Kong, Tokyo and South Korea also rallied to six-month highs.

The Sensex was down 36.33 points or 0.20% at 18166.08, and the Nifty was down 16.15 points or 0.29% at 5515.80. About 748 shares advanced, 441 shares declined, and 2210 shares remain unchanged.

In the largecap space, BHEL, Jindal Steel, Tata Power, NTPC and Larsen were up 1-5%. Coal India, Sun Pharma, Sterlite Industries, DLF and Reliance were down 1

Global Markets

U.S. stocks closed lower on Wednesday as the euro hit a 1-week low on uncertainty over Greece's debt problems. Dow Jones tumbled 97 points, or 0.7%, to end at 12,781. S&P 500 fell 7 points, or 0.5%, to 1,343. Nasdaq dropped 16 points, or 0.5%, to 2,916.

Today, the Asian markets are trading lower with Shanghai & Hang Seng trading lower by 0.1% & 0.7% respectively. Nikkei & Strait Times are trading in the red by 0.3% & 0.7% respectively, while Kospi & Taiwan are trading lower by 1.1% & 0.4% respectively. SGX Nifty is trading lower by 17.5 points over Wednesday?s close.

Currencies

The Indian Rupee ended stronger on Wednesday vs the US Dollar buoyed by large gains in local shares, but off its day's highs on persistent dollar demand by oil firms.

Outlook

Today, the Indian Markets could open lower following negative global cues and trade in a range with negative bias throughout the session. Considering a sharp run up over the last few trading sessions we expect some correction to take place in near term. Strong support for Nifty is at 5435, while immediate resistance is at 5575. Among the sectoral indices, Realty, Banks & Capital Goods could witness some profit taking after a sharp run up yesterday.

Sources- HDFC SEC, moneycontrol

Morning Bell.....Sensex crosses 18k mark,inflation has cooled off in January

2012-02-15T10:58:00.000+05:30

Indian Market

As anticipated, the key Indian equity benchmarks have opened with a gap on the back of a firm trend across other Asian markets. Sentiment in Asia has been lifted by media reports that Greek political leaders will give a written undertaking on new budget cuts to international lenders on Wednesday to clinch new aid and avoid default next month. Repots also quoted Chinese central bank governor as saying that China will continue to invest in eurozone government debt.

As far as India is concerned, the good news is that inflation has cooled off in January, giving elbow room to the RBI to ease its hawkish monetary policy further and support growth. FII inflows have remained positive in February despite bad news from the overseas markets. Most of the liquidity gush has been supported by ultra-loose monetary policies in the developed nations.

The Indian market, the NSE Nifty has been sustaining above the support of 5350 for the past few sessions despite bad news from the overseas markets. A gap up opening in today’s trading session could confirm resumption of a fresh uptrend with immediate resistance seen at ~5580.

Global Market

The leaders of Greece’s two biggest political parties will provide written commitments to budget cuts, a government official in Athens was quoted as saying.

Asian stocks extended gains after China’s central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan was quoted as saying that the country was ready to be more involved in resolving the long-running European debt crisis.

US stocks pared losses in the last half hour of trading on Tuesday amid signs that Greek leaders could soon seal the deal on fresh international rescue funds. US stocks had slumped earlier in the wake of disappointing retail sales data.

But, overall world equity markets are showing some signs of fatigue this month after a surprisingly strong January. Corporate results have been mixed in the backdrop of a slowing economy.

Concerns about the eurozone remain at the forefront after Moody’s downgraded six European nations and warned the UK on its ‘AAA’ grade. Greece continues to stumble in its attempts to secure more international aid before next month’s scheduled repayment.

Currencies

The Indian Rupee ended lower on Tuesday vis-a-vis the US Dollar as strong dollar demand from local oil companies offset a rise in the share market and some recovery in the euro. The rupee ended at 49.36/37 to the dollar, compared with Monday's close of 49.19/20.

Today’s Outlook

Today, the Indian Markets could open in the green and continue to trade in with a positive bias for the day. The immediate supports to watch are at 5350 and 5300 levels while the immediate resistance levels are at 5450 and 5500. Therefore, one must remain a bit cautious and wait for more signs of strength in the markets.

Sources- IIFL, hdfcsec

Morning Bell.......Indian Indices trading flat,For the day, all eyes will be on the inflation data for January

2012-02-14T10:46:00.001+05:30

Indian Market

For the second day in a row, the main Indian equity benchmarks have started day's trading on a flat note as market players take stock of the situation following January's stellar rally. The undercurrent is cautiously optimistic amid lingering concerns about weak domestic economic backdrop and worsening eurozone credit crisis. Even technically, the frontline indices look a bit tired and could see some pullback in the near term from the current levels.

For the day, all eyes will be on the inflation data for January, which is most likely to show moderation from December. The January wholesale price index (WPI) based inflation is expected at 6.7% as against 7.47% in December. Core inflation is also likely to slip to below 7%. However, the impending drop in headline inflation is partly due to a high base effect. Inflation could turn back up, especially if the Government allows oil companies to hike fuel prices in the wake of the recent spurt in crude oil prices.

So, the RBI will keep a strong vigil on inflation given the elevated crude oil prices and the Centre's ballooning fiscal deficit. It may slash the CRR again in March but a cut in the repo rate may not materialise till the central bank's annual policy meeting in April.

Meanwhile, the RBI has decided to change the Bank Rate with immediate effect by realigning it with the Marginal Standing Facility (MSF) rate, which in turn is linked to the policy repo rate. Accordingly, the Bank Rate shall be 9.5% with effect from the close of business on Monday.

Shares of banking titan SBI are up after reporting better-than-expected growth in net profit for the fiscal third quarter. Although concerns prevail over deteriorating asset quality in a slowing economy, the bank's chairman has said that the worst is over as far as NPAs are concerned.

Major Results Today: ABG Shipyard, Akzo India, Alok Industries, Amtek Auto, BL Kashyap, BPL, Deccan Chronicle, Dhanlaxmi Bank, Dredging Corp, Educomp, Essar Oil, Gati, Gitanjali Gems, Graphite India, Great Offshore, GVK Power, HDIL, Hubtown, IVRCL, Jaiprakash Associates, Kingfisher Airlines, Kohinoor Foods, Koutons, Max India, Monnet Ispat, Nestle India, Nitesh Estate, PSL, Ramky Infra, REI Agro, Reliance Infra, SCI, Supreme Infra, Tata Motors, Tecpro Systems, Unitech, UTV, Viceroy Hotels and Voltas.

Global Market

Most Asian markets are trading with a negative bias following the mass downgrade of euro area nations by Moody's. Their counterparts in the US and Europe gained overnight after Greece moved a step closer to securing second round of bailout money from international lenders.

The back-and-forth between risk aversion and risk tolerance may continue market players take stock of the situation. Stick to a measured, stock specific approach to avoid short-term volatility. But, beware of dodgy small-caps and mid-caps.

Today’s Outlook

A higher close on Monday following last week's spinning top pattern reinforces bullish stance on our markets. The Nifty has been flirting with the resistance of 5430 for the past 3-4 trading sessions. Buying momentum could return if the Nifty manages to move past this barrier. It might cross 5500 in the near term but is bound to face hurdles on the way.
Source- IIFL,

Why this Stagnancy di…

2012-02-14T10:11:00.001+05:30

Over the past few days the speed bump on the index movement has been hit, or so it seems. There seems to be a tug-or-war like situation on the movers of the index, with counters such as RIL, automotive players such as Bajaj Auto, Tata Motors and Hero Moto Corp., etc. Steel counters such as SAIL and Tata Steel; and other beta counters but small time influencers such as Rcom, Sterlite are proving to benefit the index. The draggers include a few IT names INFY, Wipro and financial counter such as SBI which declared soft results were the target of the bears.

Until such time that we are still a bit tentative on the counters that were listed above, and we are yet to push the valuations on the ones where there is bullishness, expect today like logjam where the markets would see swings that were seen.

Today the thankful aspect was that despite ending of the earnings season, the market seems to have stayed put; and that is actually a consolation on the background of what has happened in 2011. Also, it looks like until, at least the global markets are positive this stagnancy would continue. Now the action really would shift meaningfully onto events. UP Elections, govt. stability, RBI policy and host of events taking center stage over the next few weeks.

Morning Bell.....key Indian equity benchmarks have gained modestly in early minutes of trade after a really slow start

2012-02-10T10:30:00.001+05:30

Indian Markets

The key Indian equity benchmarks have gained modestly in early minutes of trade after a really slow start. The NSE Nifty remains above the psychological level of 5400 while the BSE Sensex is trading above 17,800. the BSE Sensex was 17,875, up 44 points over the previous close. It had earlier touched a day’s high of 17,881 and aday’s low of 17,798. It opened at 17,817.

Tata Power is trading firm ahead of its Q3 FY12 earnings while DLF is under some pressure before its results. Tata Steel has gained after its Q3 results but Hindalco is in the red. RCOM is up before its Q3 earnings. ACC has advanced after posting strong quarterly profits. L&T, Bajaj Auto, Grasim, SAIL, Sesa Goa and BPCL are among the top leaders so far.

December IIP print is seen between 2.5% and 3.5%. This is slower than November’s reading of 5.9%. However, the markets may not get swayed much as the IIP data generally has been quite erratic.

Global Markets

The undertone has been buttressed by news that Greek leaders have reached an agreement on new budget cuts that are needed to get more international money and avoid a debt default. However, the eurozone finance ministers are yet to clear the new bailout funds pending an approval of the austerity measures by the Greek parliament.

Meanwhile, the US Labor Department’s count of Americans filing initial claims for jobless benefits dropped by 15,000 last week to 358,000. The four-week moving average fell to 366,250, its lowest since April 2008.

China’s exports fell for the first time in more than two years in January as trade was disrupted by the weeklong Chinese New Year holiday. The overseas demand was also hit by Europe’s prolonged debt crisis.China's exports declined 0.5% from a year earlier, the customs bureau said today. Imports dropped by a more-than-forecast 15.3%, leaving a trade surplus of US$27.3bn.

Globally, equities have got off to a strong start in 2012. So, don’t be surprised if market players turn a little hesitant in pushing stocks much higher.

Major Results Today:

Apollo Hospitals, Aurobindo Pharma, BPCL, Britannia, DLF, Eros International, Gammon Infra, GE Shipping, Hathway Cable, Hotel Leela, IDFC, JSW Steel, Lovable Lingerie, MMTC, MTNL, Neyveli Lignite, Pantaloon Retail, Pipavav Defence, Reliance Capital, RCOM, Shriram Transport, Sun TV, Tata Chemicals and Tata Power.

Outlook

Today, the Indian Markets could open lower following negative Asian cues, but could make an attempt to inch up later during the day. A move above 5,420 on the Nifty could result in further upside. Meanwhile, 5330 level remains a strong support. Among the sectoral indices, Banks, Auto & Consumer Durables continue to look good, while FMCG & Healthcare could relatively underperform.

Sources-IIFL,Hdfcsec

Life doesn’t stop, so shouldn’t you. Keep walking…

2012-02-09T18:27:00.000+05:30

Sorry this is not a covert (surrogate) advertisement to promote Jonny Walker label products. I thought this title is apt for how things stand at the cross roads on the investment spectrum for Indian investors. Today, the market was wayward and looked like it will fall at the slightest hint of news. Greek default, another round of breakdown in debt talks and all the slowdown issues bugging the Euro land, would rub its way onto us.

So I thought it would be good to take sometime and tell you all, what would happen if Greece defaults over the next few days. What would be the impact of it on all of us. Just to keep the answer of this simple and not beat around the bush as much. Rather than answering this question directly, let me ask you guys, if you remember the Asian financial crises in 1997-1998, when Indonesia defaulted on external debt payments, what happened?

Actually, nothing worthwhile for us. In fact for the country itself, more than 10 year post that default it has been amongst the fastest growing emerging markets economy. So technically if Greece defaults the world is not going to stop functioning. A lot of people, read developed countries, who hold Greek debt would have to shave off a few million dollars of their worth, most notably banks and financial institutions; but beyond that it would be life as usual for people in Greece and else where in EU land. They will NOT stop breathing and eating. They will pick up where they lost out from, hopefully learn and move one.

For us, how in the world does it matter. We neither hold a lot of EU debt, nor trade in a big way, nor import European food to eat, so life will just go on with elections, food & floods and domestic problems enough to take care till 2030, at least.

When we look back, it would be the same way as we do today at the Asian Financial crises. We will have to tell ourselves to move ahead, tighten our shoe laces and start walking.

Or rather as the ad said – Keep Walking…

Morning Bell.....Indices are down,concerns about Greece's ability to avert the eurozone's maiden debt default.

2012-02-09T10:45:00.001+05:30

Indian Market

The frontline Indian equity benchmarks have opened with a negative bias as they continue to consolidate in a sideways fashion in the wake of January's strong upmove. The undertone is a little cautious amid concerns about Greece's ability to avert the eurozone's maiden debt default. Also, China's inflation data released today came in higher than expected, partly due to seasonal effects. FII inflows have tapered off slightly but remain positive. Data on direct tax collection and bank credit is not encouraging though.

Shares of top Metal companies such as Tata Steel, Sterlite Industries and Hindalco are down. Shares of Hindalco have tumbled as the latest quarterly earnings report from Novelis has fallen short of consensus estimates.

Shares of IT majors Infosys and TCS are also trading lower after NASSCOM predicted a slower growth in IT exports for FY13. Also, Cognizant Technology has announced strong results for the latest quarter and has projected a 23% growth in topline.

The market breadth is positive as the Small-Cap and Mid-Cap indices have outperformed the Large-Cap peers so far. The performance of the sectoral indices on the BSE is mixed. While CD and Realty indices are the top leaders so far, IT, Metals and Teck indices are among the notable laggards.

An inside bar on Wednesday's trading session indicates indecisiveness at higher levels, with Nifty getting stuck in a range of 5300-5420. However, such sideways move in the past three trading sessions should be considered as consolidation after a big upmove. One should wait for a breakout above 5420 for initiating fresh long positions.

Global Market

The market is again turning as unpredictable as the weather even as it consolidates after a spectacular rally. The trend is likely to continue today as well as the Greek debt drama drags on and data shows faster-than-expected inflation in China. Bank of Korea has left borrowing costs steady. Japan’s core machinery orders dropped 7.1% in December.

Talking of economic stats, growth in the direct tax receipts remains slow while credit offtake too continues to moderate. Car sales for FY12 may be either flat or even tad lower. On the plus side, FII inflows are still positive while the domestic funds are more cautious.

The opening is likely to be wee bit cooler as global investors fret over Greece’s inability to seal a deal on second bailout. Asian markets are mostly down post the Chinese inflation data. US markets managed modest gains while their European counterparts finished mixed.

Lots of results are on tap today. Watch out for the outcome of the ECB and Bank of England policy meetings. But, all eyes will be on Greece as it seeks to secure more international aid to avoid a default.

Major Results Today:

ACC. Adani Enterprise, Alfa Laval, Ambuja Cements, Anant Raj, Apollo Tyres, Cummins India, Fortis Healthcare, Gammon India, GTL, GTL Infra, GNFC, GSPL, Hikal, Hindalco, HPCL, Indiabulls Securities, Jindal Saw, Jindal Stainless, JK Tyre, Kernex Micro, KRBL, Moser Baer, MRF, NDTV, Network18 Media, Page Industries, Rajesh Exports, Sundram Fasteners, Talwalkar's, Tata Steel, TV Today and TV18 Broadcast.

Outlook

Today, the Indian Markets could open marginally lower and then trade in a narrow range. During the latter half of the session, it could take cues from Dow Futures & European markets for any further direction. Immediate support for Nifty is at 5300, while resistance is at 5396 levels. Among the sectoral indices, Realty, Metals & Oil & Gas look good while Healthcare & FMCG look weak & could underperform.

Source-IIFL, hdfcsec

Morning Be!!.........Indian Indices up in the early trade

2012-02-08T10:41:00.001+05:30

Indian Market

The BSE Sensex was 17,678, up 56 points over the previous close. It had earlier touched a day’s high of 17,689 and a day’s low of 17,631. It opened at 17,631.

NSE Nifty was quoting 5,353, up 18 points over the previous close.It has earlier touched a day’s high of 5,354 and a day’s low of 5,335. It opened at 5,343.

The culprit for Tuesday's insipid session was the advance GDP estimate for FY12. It shows less than 7% growth for the first time in three years. Hopefully, the final reading will be a little higher.

The Indian economy has lost steam and the Government needs to act now to give it a fillip. The upcoming Budget will be crucial in this context. But, before that the market will have to grapple with state elections. A favourable result for the UPA will be seen as a positive. On the flip side, the undertone might be hit in case of an adverse outcome for the Congress.

Global Markets

Asian markets are mostly up while the US and Europe stocks pared losses overnight. Reports point to some progress in talks to save Greece from a default.

Leaders of the three political parties that back Prime Minister Papademos's interim unity government are set to meet the premier in an effort to finalize details of the program.However, the meeting was postponed until Wednesday, according to media reports.

Separate news reports indicated that Greek government officials were drafting a final agreement on budget cuts to be presented to political leaders. The agreement on fresh austerity measures is seen as necessary to avoid a disorderly default.

Also, Federal Reserve chief Ben S. Bernanke has reiterated his readiness for more stimulus if the need arises. But, one must remain on guard after a sharp and swift rally.

Currencies

The US Dollar rose against the Indian Rupee by 0.3% to Rs.49.2 on Tuesday as oil importers' demand for the greenback and a negative local share market offset comfort from dollar inflows. Outlook on the local currency is turning increasingly uncertain due to continuing concerns over Greece's debt problems, and the political logjam that continues to hem in local reforms as well as the persistently high inflation.

Commodities

Oil gained a second day in New York after an industry report showed crude stockpiles shrank in the U.S., the world’s biggest consumer of the commodity.

Outlook

Today, we expect the Indian Markets to open in the green following positive global cues and trade in a range with positive bias. Immediate resistance for Nifty is at 5389, while support is at 5300. Among the sectoral indices, Banks and Oil Gas look good. After correcting yesterday, Capital Goods & Realty could also bounce back today. However, FMCG index could underperform.

Source-hdfcsec, IIFL

Calendar Feb 2012

2012-02-07T14:27:00.002+05:30

Morning Be!!......Indices up,but the sentiment remains edgy amid concerns about Greece's ability to secure a second bailout package

2012-02-07T10:43:00.002+05:30

Indian Market

The frontline Indian stock indices are trading with moderate gains in early minutes of trade but the sentiment remains edgy amid concerns about Greece's ability to secure a second bailout package from the international lenders to avert a default. the market also seems to be taking some breather after five straight weeks of gains. Technically, the market does appear to be a little bit overbought. So, traders should be cautious at this juncture and wait for the confirmation of an end to the bear market.

The BSE Sensex was 17,743., up 36 points over the previous close. It had earlier touched a day’s high of 17,828 and aday’s low of 17,720. It opened at 17,813.

NSE Nifty was quoting 5,369, up 8 points over the previous close.It has earlier touched a day’s high of 5,413 and a day’s low of 5,362

The shares of Reliance Industries have edged higher after Goldman Sachs upgraded the index bellwether to a 'Buy' from 'Neutral', citing a potential gain in margins on increased refining and recovering oil demand. Goldman raised its target prices for the oil and gas major to Rs. 970 from Rs. 960 previously.

Shares of Hindustan Unilever Ltd. (HUL) are down a day after the FMCG giant posted better-than-expected Q3 net profit on rising prices and volume growth. However, HUL did warn about headwinds from an uncertain global environment.

HUL said it could have to deal with challenges arising from inflation and currency volatility. However, it vowed to maintain relentless focus on cost management and execution to contain these threats.

Major Results Today:

BILT, Cadila Healthcare, GMR Infra, Hindustan Oil Exploration, ICRA, IL&FS Transportation, JK Lakshmi Cement, M&M, Omaxe, Opto Circuits, Phillips Carbon, Radico Khaitan, Triveni Engineering, UB and VIP Industries.

Global Market

Most Asian markets are down today amid growing tensions over the fate of Greece as the debt-ridden eurozone nation's leaders failed to adhere to the Monday's timeline for accepting the terms of the second round of bailout.

The market is divided over whether the wrangling over Greece's debt restructuring talks would eventually be resolved or trigger contagion across other vulnerable eurozone countries.

US stocks finished flat as Greek political parties failed to agree on terms for a new bailout package. European stocks declined as talks between Greece and various other stakeholders drag on amid rising threat of a default. Willy-nilly, Greece has become a test case for the eurozone as it struggles to rein in a long-running debt crisis.

Other events to watch out for today include: interest rate decision in Australia, industrial production in Germany and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s testimony.

Currency Update

The Indian Rupee ended a four-day winning streak on Monday, reversing early gains that saw it rise to a more than four-and-a-half month high, as US Dollar demand from local oil refiners and big companies offset a rise in local shares. A report by rating agency Standard & Poor's outlining the numerous hurdles faced by India in maintaining its stable rating outlook and the lingering Greek debt crisis weighed on the unit.

Key Events

The advance GDP estimate for FY12 will be out today. The numbers are unlikely to be upbeat and most of the reasons are well known. The Indian economy is likely to grow by ~7% in FY12 vs. 8.4% in FY11. However, stock market tends to discount events well ahead of time and therefore the GDP data may not hurt sentiment.

Outlook

Today, we expect the Indian Markets to open marginally in the green and than continue to remain range bound during the day. Immediate resistances for Nifty are at 5389 & 5398 levels, while supports are at 5300 & 5275 levels. Among the sectoral indices Realty, Capital Goods and Metal could witness correction during the day.

Sources- India infoline,hdfcsec

Temptation to throw the towel

2012-02-07T09:46:00.001+05:30

After a massacre that was seen in 2011 in the equities and the performance in 2012 so far, everyone appears to be saying that probably this could be the best time to get out. On surface it appears a good argument, what with the markets providing YTD returns in the range of 16% and that too without any intermediate correction or stopover. This could be particularly relevant for investors who would be invested over the past 18 or so months and seen their investment value erode.

However, just as investment value in the stock markets erode without providing any time to think or ponder, so does bull markets happen when everyone is busy trying to figure out when the next fall would come by. The markets are ever mercurial and understanding that is half the battle won. On a broad thought process level, being plain contrarian would works wonders and as I always mentioned in the past quoting Warren Buffet – “be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy”. This mantra is as basic as gravity, alas ever easy to understand but mighty difficult to practice.

Today the market started tentative and swayed between coming close to zero line and then swinging back to positive zone several times during the day. Overall the direction remains positive; however, at some point altitude sickness is bound to set in. There are certainly a section of people who have made too much too fast over the past few days and those set would certainly sell and go away. How much of an impact that would have is yet to be seen. Secondly, there are big boys reporting in the financial space over the next few days which could throw water over the ovens. Finally, the hot air balloon goes up only if the engine runs (read the FII’s pumping in money) and we certainly do not know when that engine will turn cold.

Otherwise, there is no stopping for the juggernaut pulling away stellar returns fro the year. I am just imagining that sky scraper that would be built on the solid foundation that we have built over the past 2-3 years in the corporate space. Meaning, how high can the index go when the structural bull market begins.

Sensex Kalifa – anyone.

Morning Bell...The key Indian stock indices have advanced in early minutes of trade

2012-02-06T11:16:00.001+05:30

Indian Market

The key Indian stock indices have advanced in early minutes of trade, with the BSE Sensex and the NSE Nifty rising by ~1% each. The Nifty has strengthened its foothold above 5,300 while the Sensex has surpassed 17,700. The undertone is upbeat due to relentless inflow of overseas capital into Indian financial assets. The relief over a court ruling in the 2G scam is also partly behind the positive start today as is the upbeat US jobs report for January.

The BSE Sensex was 17,778, up 173 points over the previous close. It had earlier touched a day’s high of 17,829 and aday’s low of 17,741. It opened at 17,741.

NSE Nifty was quoting 5,374, up 48 points over the previous close.It has earlier touched a day’s high of 5,390 and a day’s low of 5,372. It opened at 5,379.

Wipro, TCS, Bajaj Auto, DLF, L&T, ICICI Bank, M&M, HUL, Hero MotoCorp, Coal India, Hindalco Inds,Sterlite Inds, were among the notable leaders in the Sensex and the Nifty.

ONGC, Tata Power, Gail India were among the notable losers in the Sensex and the Nifty.

The Mid-Cap and Small-Cap index was trading at 1%.

The gains are broad based with the Small-Cap and Mid-Cap indices keeping pace with their Large-Cap peers. The market breadth is positive. Most sectoral indices on the BSE have gained. The INDIA VIX on the NSE is marginally lower.

A lower court delivered a favourable verdict on the alleged complicity of P. Chidambaram in the 2G scam. Markets are likely to display similar relief today. Suddenly the prospects for equities seem to have brightened. FII inflows continue to be strong. The rupee too is gaining ground.

Hopes are also building on material improvement in governance and policy making. The Uttar Pradesh elections and the Union Budget will be two big events on the domestic calendar in the near term. Corporate earnings will continue to roll in for few more days.

Major Results Today:

Adani Port, Adani Power, BGR Energy, Bajaj Electricals, Dena Bank, GSK Consumer, Gujarat Industries Power, Gulf Oil, HUL, India Cements, Kesoram, MOIL, NALCO, NCC, Spicejet, Texmaco, Trent and Zydus Wellness.

Sources-:India Infoline

Weekly Market Wrap..Nifty rallying further to end with gains for the fifth consecutive week.

2012-02-04T16:15:00.001+05:30

The week gone by saw the Nifty rallying further to end with gains for the fifth consecutive week. The Nifty gained 2.33% W-o-W. Market breadth was positive in four out of the five trading sessions of the week. The biggest gainers from the CNX 500 were STC India, KSK, Aban, Tata Global and Prestige. The biggest losers were Varun Shipping, Sterling Bio, FDC and Tata Coffee.

Indian Markets

Equity benchmarks maintained their upward momentum during the week, rising 2% over last Friday. A glance at the events and developments that ruled sentiment during the week.

• December exports up 6.7% to $25 billion, trade deficit (exports-minus imports) for April-December soars to $133 billion, and seen touching $160 billion by March.

• Core sector growth in December at a tepid 3.1%, indicating that the recovery in the November index of industrial production may have been an aberration.

• Finance ministry advisor Kaushik Basu sees inflation for FY12 between 6.5-6.8%, says economy is turning around.

• Rupee continues to rise against the dollar, hits three month high of 48.68, driven by strong FII inflows, weakness in dollar relative to other economies.

• Growth in household savings declines to 13.7% in 2010-11, compared to 21% the previous fiscal, mainly due to high inflation.

• Purchasing Managers Index for manufacturing hits 7-month high of 57.5 in January.

• Liquidity pressure persists despite cut in cash reserve ratio, RBI resorts to open market operations to infuse liquity.

Policy Changes:

The Supreme Court on Friday cancelled 122 2G telecom licences issued after January 2008, saying that norms were flouted while awarding them to companies. Uninor, Loop DB Etisalat, Sistema Shyam among worst affected. No clarity yet on refund on licence fee. The spectrum available as a result of the cancellation of the licences, will be auctioned, earning much needed revenues to the cash-strapped government.

The government revised the economic growth rate for 2010-11 financial year slightly down to 8.4% from the earlier estimate of 8.5%.

Exports grew by merely 6.7% to $25 billion in December 2011 compared to the same month last year due to demand slowdown in the western markets of the US and Europe.

Key Sectoral Movement

All the sectoral indices except Consumer Durables and Capital Goods ended in the green, which lost 2.8% and 1% respectively. The top gainers were Realty, Auto, IT and Bankex, which ended higher by 4.8%, 3.7%, 3.3% and 3.2% respectively.

Outlook of the week

With the markets moving up further for the fourth consecutive session, the underlying trend continues to remain up. Immediate upside targets for the Nifty in the coming week are at 5360-5380. The current short term uptrend would reverse with a Nifty close under 5076.

Sources-moneycontrol, hdfcsec

Morning Be!!........The Sensex opened flat on the last day of the week after rallying for consecutive three sessions

2012-02-03T10:58:00.000+05:30

Indian Markets

The key Indian stock indices have opened on a sedate note and are trading with slim gains in early minutes of trading, as investors assess the wider impact of the Supreme Court's verdict on the 2G scam. While the FII inflows remain robust, there are concerns about the Government's ballooning budget deficit. Sentiment is also edgy ahead of tomorrow's lower court ruling on P. Chidambaram's alleged role in the 2G scam.

The Government’s already scarred image has taken another knock in the form of an adverse Supreme Court verdict which could make matters difficult for the Congress in the crucial UP elections.

Markets could be edgy today as investors await a lower court’s order on the alleged role of P. Chidambaram in the 2G mess. The court is set to deliver its verdict on Saturday.

The SC ruling has also thrown up a few tricky questions that could continue to haunt the telecom sector for a while. Let’s hope that the damage to investor confidence is limited.

On the global front, things have turned quiet ahead of Friday’s US monthly jobs data. While French and Spanish debt auctions went off well a deal on Greece’s debt recast remains elusive.

Just like the RBI governor, his US counterpart, Ben S. Bernanke, has raised a red flag over its government's ballooning budget deficit.

Global Markets
On the global front, Asian markets are cautious as investors await the release of monthly US jobs data on Friday and talks on the proposed debt swap in Greece remain inconclusive. The US markets finished mostly flat overnight while their European counterparts managed moderate gains.

Currencies
Indian Rupee climbed to a 3-month high vis-?-vis the US Dollar after a private report showed the nation?s manufacturing expanded at the fastest pace in eight months. The currency rose for a third day, strengthening past 49 per dollar for the first time since November 4, 2011.

Commodities
The metals ended mixed on the LME with Nickel and Zinc gaining marginally by 0.1% while Aluminium and Copper fell by 0.6% and 0.5% respectively. Oil for March delivery slipped $1.25 cents to end at $96.36 a barrel.Gold futures for April delivery added $9.80 to $1,759.30 an ounce.

Outlook
Today, we expect the Indian Markets to open flat to marginally in the green and trade in a narrow range. With the markets moving up further for the third consecutive session, the underlying trend continues to remain up. Immediate resistance for Nifty is at 5300, while support is at 5200. Among the sectoral indices, IT, Metal & Capital Goods continue to look good, while Healthcare & FMCG could underperform.
Sources-: hdfcsec, india infoline

Time for the second line?

2012-02-03T10:03:00.002+05:30

Today the trade was simple and straight. The ones which did not run for many days are now participating in the rally. This might be good and bad at the same time. Good because that makes the rally a very broad based one, bad because now each and everything seem to be running, whether it merits increase or not. The likes of Ambuja, DLF, ACC, GAIL & Sesa Goa were amongst the top gainer for the Nifty stocks. Now the cement pack has been very quite on the back of subdued cement prices and consequent flat or lower earnings; so where is the need to run away to glory?

The global markets running with confidence lends more credibility to the continued terrific performance that the indices are displaying, but now I am getting a feeling that it is moving too fast and too furious for comfort.

If that were the case, then we are in for trouble ahead since YTD we are now coasting at around 15% or thereabouts on the Nifty Index and if we keep moving this way then in a few weeks we would be hitting 19k levels very soon. And then we will need to pull out money fast. What might be interesting is that fact that in all this, only the outsiders would have made money. Since the FII’s are pumping the money and the domestic guys are still sitting on the sidelines. So we could be missing the stellar returns yet again and sound like being in catch 22. Again!

February 2012 would be very interesting indeed. If this gallops, then we make superb returns, if we return then the question would be, are we returning to sub 4800 levels? This market still would not le us sleep easy. Keep eyes wide open, steep curve ahead.

Morning Be!!!.........Indian stock indices have continued their good run of the past two sessions

2012-02-02T10:50:00.002+05:30

Indian Markets

The frontline Indian stock indices have continued their good run of the past two sessions in early morning trade, as investors cheer encouraging manufacturing PMI data from across the globe. Also, FII inflows into Indian financial assets continues to be robust following a spectacular January rally. Globally too, risk appetite seems to be back amid optimism about US and Chinese growth and hope of a resolution to the euro area credit crisis.

The bullish undercurrent in the Indian market is in line with the ongoing global 'risk on' rally as market players gradually resume their shopping spree in equities after last year's debacle. Growth in the US is holding steady despite the eurozone debt crisis while China too looks likely to avoid a hard landing. As far as the euro area is concerned, there are still fears of the fiscal mess stretching longer as Greece struggles to seal a deal over its debt restructuring.

The rising market brings back memories of 2007. Risk appetite is back on the table as global liquidity, unlocked by easy monetary policies, chases high returns after a tumultuous 2011. The trigger for Wednesday’s worldwide ‘risk on’ rally came from upbeat manufacturing data.

Back home, auto sales for January and the manufacturing PMI have further stoked optimism about a gradual revival. Results have been mixed but most players are probably looking ahead to FY13.

Such powerful is the sentiment that lingering problems are being overlooked. The question is whether the current upswing is sustainable? Won’t take long for fear to return and some cooling is a given after a strong rally. So, ride the bullish wave as long as it lasts.

Global Markets

A couple of other reports also underscored the resilience of the US economy in the face of the eurozone fiscal malaise. While China’s manufacturing PMI reports were mixed few economists see a hard landing there.

Given the encouraging global backdrop, the start today is likely to be positive. Asian markets are on a firm wicket. US stocks shook off their recent lethargy to end smartly up. European indices too joined the party.

Currencies

The Indian Rupee hit a near three-month high on Wednesday vis-a-vis the US Dollar, clawing back all early losses, supported by robust dollar inflows, local share gains and a recovery in the euro.

Commodities

Among the metals, Aluminium lost 1.9% while Nickel fell by 1.3%. Copper and Zinc ended lower by 1.2% each. Oil for March delivery fell 87 cents to end at $97.61 a barrel. Gold futures for April delivery rose $9.10 to close at $1,749.50 an ounce.

Key events to watch for today

India - WPI

Outlook

Today, we expect the Indian Markets to open up and then later during the day, it could take cues from Dow Futures & European markets for any further direction. With the markets erasing almost all its losses, the underlying trend continues to remain up. Immediate resistance levels for Nifty are at 5275 & 5230, while support levels are at 5159 & 5125. Among the indices, Metals, Capital Goods & Auto could outperform.

Sources- hdfc security, india infoline

Morning Be!!......Indian stock indices are trading with minor losses in early morning trade

2012-02-01T10:34:00.001+05:30

Indian Markets

The main Indian stock indices are trading with minor losses in early morning trade, stepping back slightly after the previous session's stellar gains and a fantastic start to the year. The undertone is cautious after the fiscal deficit reached more than 90% of the FY12 goal. Also, data from the US showed some softening amid ongoing worries about the eurozone. China's manufacturing PMI reports have been mixed as well. South Korea has swung to its first trade deficit in two years. Australia's home prices fell the most on record in 2011.

Shares of HDFC Ltd. are down in a sluggish market in early morning trade after Carlyle reportedly sold a big chunk of its stake in the housing finance major through a block deal.

More manufacturing PMI reports will be out later in the day from across the globe. The Indian market will also react to the latest trade data apart from the monthly auto and cement volumes.

Talking of fiscal conditions, India’s budget deficit has almost reached the year-end projection. The external balance sheet too is showing some signs of stress. movement in currency and commodities will be crucial going ahead. One has to see how the Government tackles these issues once the political compulsions of state elections subside.

US and European Markets

January offered up an apology to discouraged investors. Unlike 2011, when markets spiked and sunk several hundred points each day but ultimately closed out the year relatively flat, all three indexes mostly climbed higher throughout the month with occasional dips

Eurozone troubles are a big overhang at the moment. The deal on the proposed restructuring of Greek debt remains elusive. Negotiations between Greek government and private bondholders are likely to end today. Portugal is feared to be next in line for seeking writedowns on its debt load. Italy and Spain too have crippling debt burdens. In short, the world economy will do a whole lot better if Europe manages to come out of the current mess largely unscathed.

Asian Markets

Today, barring Strait Times, which is trading marginally lower by 0.1%, all the other Asian indices are trading in the green with Hang Seng & Shanghai trading up by 0.4% & 0.2% respectively. Nikkei & Kospi are trading higher by 0.3% & 0.6% respectively, while Taiwan is trading in the green by 0.3%. SGX Nifty is trading lower by 16 points over Tuesday?s close.

Currencies

The Indian rupee surged against the US Dollar on Tuesday, as local stocks jumped. Foreign funds are investing aggressively into the local stocks, which are attractively valued.

Commodities

Among the metals, Nickel was the only loser falling by 0.8% while Aluminium gained the most (2.4%). Copper and Zinc ended higher by 1% each. Oil for March delivery dropped 37 cents to $98.39 a barrel. Gold futures for April delivery rose $7.40 to $1,740.40 an ounce.

Outlook

Today, we expect the Indian Markets to open flat to marginally in the negative. Later during the day, it could take cues from Dow Futures & European markets for any further direction. With the markets erasing almost all its losses seen on Monday, the underlying trend continues to remain up.

Immediate resistance for Nifty is at 5250, while support is at 5125. Among the indices, Banks, Realty & Auto are looking good and could outperform.

Source- hdfc security, india infoline

Last ball six!

2012-01-31T19:35:00.001+05:30

The Indian cricket team might have got a drubbing of 4-0 in the recently concluded Aussie test series, but the Indian stock market investor can take solace from the fact that January 2012 has ended in a classic Shewag style last ball six with the market gaining 2.2% in the last trading day for the month. The lead was taken by none other than Shewag like ICICI Bank which posted some stellar results in the Q3FY12 earnings release that happened today.

This couple with support from other bigges such as RIL and HDFCBank, SBI and other key banking players aided the stellar closing for the day. With this, now the Nifty Index closed January 2012 with a 12.5% returns for the month, amongst it’s top monthly performance for a long time. And what a time to deliver it. To put things into perspective. 2011 January the Nifty Index closed with huge 10.58% negative and that had just started the leak which transformed into a huge flood and by December 2011 we have a 25% hole in the returns for that year.

With this strong pull back, as mentioned in the earlier rants, the tone for the year 2012 has already been set; so if the global macro situation just holds on a bit then we could end up with decent returns on the ticker. In the worst case, we could end up with single digit returns, which should pave way for a very strong foundation for a bull run over the next few years.

So now all booking are open for tickets for the February 2012 show.

Morning Be!!....Indian stock indices have advanced in early morning trade, with the NSE Nifty reclaiming the 5100 mark and the BSE Sensex crossing 17,000.

2012-01-31T10:34:00.001+05:30

Indian Markets

The frontline Indian stock indices have advanced in early morning trade, with the NSE Nifty reclaiming the 5100 mark and the BSE Sensex crossing 17,000. The undercurrent is upbeat as investors focus on gains for other Asian markets and reports suggest that Most EU leaders have agreed to strengthen a financial firewall against the debt crisis. The rebound today has come after Monday's big selloff where the Nifty and the Sensex lost 2% each.

Major Results Today:

ICICI Bank, PNB, NMDC, Siemens, Titan, Crompton Greaves, TVS Motor, Dabur India, IDBI Bank, Central Bank of India, Jagran Prakashan, Mahindra Holidays, Century Textiles, Shoppers Stop, Union Bank of India, Aban Offshore, City Union Bank, Delta Corp, PTC India, HCL Infosystem, Firstsource Solutions, Subex, KEC International, Blue Dart, IPCA Labs, Financial Technologies, Berger Paints, DCM Shriram Consolidated, Usha Martin, Welspun Projects

US & European Markets

U.S. stocks recovered most of their lost ground on Monday afternoon but struggled to pull out of the red as concerns over Greece continued to weigh on the market. Stocks started the day down about 1% after the weekend came and went without Greek leaders reaching an agreement on a debt-relief deal. But as the trading session wore on, the major indexes trimmed most of those losses.

Dow Jones finished 7 points lower, or 0.1%. Earlier, the blue chip index had declined 131 points. S&P 500 lost 3 points, or 0.3%, and Nasdaq slumped 5 points, or 0.2%.

European stocks extended losses due to uncertainties whether the meeting will bring viable solutions to the debt crisis in the area. Britain's FTSE 100 fell 1.1%, DAX in Germany dropped 1% and France's CAC 40 lost 1.6%.

Asian Markets

Today, amongst the Asian markets Strait times & Shanghai Composite are trading in the red, down by 0.4% and 0.2% respectively. Nikkei is trading up by 0.3%. Hang Seng & Kospi are up by 0.7% and 0.8% respectively. The Taiwan markets too are up by 1%.SGX Nifty is trading higher by 38 points.

Currencies

The Indian Rupee retreated from a near three-month high on Monday, weighed by weak equities, US Dollar demand from a local steelmaker and oil importers. Traders also awaited a debt deal between Greece and its private creditors for further clues on the local currency.

Commodities

Among the metals, Zinc and Copper fell by 3.6% and 2.5% respectively. Aluminium and Nickel ended lower by 1.5% each. Oil for March delivery slipped 78 cents to settle at $98.78 a barrel. Gold futures for April delivery fell $1.00 to settle at $1,734.40 an ounce.

Key events to watch for today

India : CPI (Industrial Workers)

Outlook for Today

Today, we expect the Indian Markets to open in the green and later witness some profit booking at higher levels during the day. Immediate supports to watch are at 5050 & 5000 levels while the immediate resistance levels are 5162 & 5200. Among the sectors, FMCG & Health Care may relativly fall by a lesser magnitude if markets correct from a higher levels during the day.

Sources- hdfcsec, India Infoline

Too hot to handle!

2012-01-30T17:15:00.000+05:30

When you hit the peddle to the floor the vehicle moves fast and when it gains momentum you ease on the peddle. When you don’t do that, keep the pedal to the floor for an extended period of time, the vehicle keeps picking momentum until a point where you start to lose control. Over the past 30 days the market kept taking the momentum and did not ease one bit, so today’s fall was expected and also in a way good for the market. Had the momentum taken the market’s to dizzy heights, then the fall could be been that much sharper and painful.

So the momentum has stuck on, I would imagine and the pull back could be a few more percentage points, however, looks like we would be ok in terms of corporate performance since now corporate are increasingly getting into a belt tightening mode to protect margins and profits. So earnings should stabilize this year. This period therefore is extremely crucial for us to take selective entry into the market with every passing correction.

When the positive momentum starts to build in from a structural point of view, then these corrections will become very short and small. We are yet slightly away from that point. At this moment it would look like we are heading into 4000 points on the Nifty. Actually, I would imagine we would never get there. The low point has occurred sometime last year and could be tested, if at all, and then head higher gradually from here. Ultimately, there is no place else to go and this would be evident from each passing quarter. Of course it would be extremely painful to experience the same.

Today was particularly notorious for performance from BHEL. Reporting disappointing numbers earlier, the stock did face some stick in the hands of investors. If today belonged to BHEL, will it be SBI tomorrow, since the bank reports earnings. And I would be the last person to be surprised if it reports ugly earnings. According to me, the surprise element was taken away, when earlier this month the chairman indicated that the KFA debt is essentially an NPA and that there are scores of such hidden ugly loans in the balance sheet. So we have no choice but to wait for the can of worms to open tomorrow. In all the doom lies opportunity. Only if we spot it and sit tight. Indians that we are, we are never accustomed to sit tight.

At least, sleep right, good night.

Morning Bell.....The Sensex opened 150 points lower to kickstart the week following weak global cues

2012-01-30T10:11:00.000+05:30

Indian Markets

The top Indian equity indices have lost some ground in early minutes of trade. Investors are taking a step back after this month's strong rally while the undercurrent remains cautious ahead of today's EU leaders' summit. Also, lower-than-expected Q4 GDP growth in the US has also caused investors to be a little more guarded.

BHEL tanked 8.6% as its margin declined at 19.37% versus 22.96% YoY due to inflationary pressure and rising competition.

The Sensex was down 123 points at 17,110.63 and the Nifty fell 40 points to 5,164.65.

Major Results Today:

NMDC, Glenmark Pharma, Balrampur Chini , LIC Hsg, Indian Bank, Oriental Bank, Allahbad Bank, Corporation Bank, GMDC, Indiabulls Financial, Havells India, United Phosphorus, Kansai Nerolac, National Fertilizers, EID Parry, MCLeod Russel, Sadbhav Engineering, Punjab and Sind Bank, Bajaj Corp, ENIL, Orient Papers, HSIL, Aanjaneya, IL&FS Investment Managers, Taj GVK, Noida Toll Bridge, PVR, Ajmera Realty, Chemplast, Zee Learn, Nelcast, GHCL, Nitco, Rajshree Sugar, Amarjyothi, Electrotherm, Pansonic Home, 3M India, Ingersoll Rand, Mahindra Lifespace

US and European Markets

U.S. stocks ended mostly lower on Friday as jittery investors digested a weaker-than-expected economic growth report and as Europe's debt crisis still loomed in the background. Dow Jones dropped 74 points, or 0.6%, S&P 500 slipped 2 points, or 0.2%. Nasdaq managed to gain ground, adding 11 points, or 0.4%.

Friday's slump came as investors reacted to the government's first reading on fourth-quarter gross domestic product. The United States economy picked up speed at the end of 2011, growing at an annual rate of 2.8%, as consumers increased their spending. But the data fell short of the 3.2% forecast.

Asian Markets

Today, the Asian markets are trading in the red with Strait times & KOSPI trading down by 0.8% and 0.7% respectively. Nikkei too is down by 0.6%. Hang Seng & China is down by 0.7% each. On the other hand the Taiwan markets are up by 2.8%.SGX Nifty is trading down by 43 points over Fridays close.

Currencies

The Indian Rupee on Friday appreciated by 77 paise to close at a near 12-week high of 49.31/32 vis-?-vis the US Dollar, driven by strong capital inflows into rising local stock markets. Forex dealers said sustained dollar selling by exporters amid weakness in the U.S. currency?s value overseas also boosted the rupee sentiment.

Outlook

Today markets could open on a weak note following negative global cues and trade in a range with negative bias. The immediate resistance stands at 5250 while the immediate downside support is at 5180 & 5160. Banks, Realty & IT could underperform.

Source- hdfc security, india infoline

Headbangers Ball!

2012-01-28T13:55:00.001+05:30

Carrying on from last week, the week gone by saw the main indices moving up further. It was the fourth consecutive week of gains for the Sensex/Nifty as they took out the intermediate highs of 17004/5099 and also closed above the 200 day EMA. W-o-W, while the Sensex gained 2.82%, the Nifty was up by 3.09% over the same period. Reflecting the positive sentiments, market breadth was positive in all the four trading sessions of the week.

Key Events

Indian Markets

India's central bank unexpectedly cut the amount of deposits lenders need to set aside as reserves for the first time since 2009 and signaled future interest-rate cuts, joining BRIC nations in shielding growth. Stocks rose. The Reserve Bank of India reduced the cash reserve ratio to 5.5 percent from 6 percent, it said in a statement in Mumbai today. The move adds around 320 billion rupees ($6.4 billion) into lenders, it said

Cotton production in India, the second-biggest grower, will be lower than earlier forecast after diseases cut yields in the states of Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh, said the nation's textiles commissioner. The harvest may reach 34.5 million bales of 170 kilograms (375 pounds) each in the year that began Oct. 1, against 35.6 million bales estimated on Nov. 15, Textiles Commissioner A.B. Joshi told reporters in Mumbai after a meeting of the Cotton Advisory Board. India produced 32.5 million bales in 2010-2011.

The International Monetary Fund cut its forecast for global growth and warned that the European debt crisis threatens to derail the world economy. India is expected to grow 7 percent in 2012, 0.5 percentage point less than in September forecasts.

India's economic growth is weakening more than anticipated and inflation remains 'high' as the rupee's fall threatens to stoke price pressures, the central bank said, signaling it may leave interest rates unchanged. 'The growth slowdown, high inflation and currency pressures, complicate policy choices,' the Reserve Bank of India said in a report yesterday before its rate decision in Mumbai. The 'critical factors' ahead will be 'core inflation and exchange rate pass-through,' it said, adding that keeping the 'liquidity deficit' in acceptable limits is also a priority.

Outlook of the week

We would now be closing 2012 January on a firm note, irrespective what would happen in the couple of days left to close. The reason for this firm finish and the extent of the gains is not new and has been spoken a lot buy ‘pundits’ on TV. With earnings season looking decent so far, though bulk of the big names (SBI amongst them) reporting next week, it could prove very crucial. Especially for setting the tone for February 2012. My sense is that we could see a pull back of anywhere from 3%-5% due to the fact that SBI’s numbers could disappoint, also host of financial services/banks could post negative surprises. On the flip side, such a strong momentum that was set in so far, clearly warrants that we consolidate or pull back marginally and push higher over time. FY13 could prove to be a consolidation year from corporate and then we move onto higher ground with passing years.

Sources:

HDFC Securities Weekly wrap of the Market

Right Horizons Equity Desk for Outlook for the coming week

Trailblazing performance! – Can it sustain??

2012-01-28T09:52:00.001+05:30

The Nifty Index just refuses to get bogged down now. EU worries, US slowdown worries or Asian worries; nothing has stopped this juggernaut through the month. Now we are up 12.5% for the month and conclusively. Today’s performing stars are all the high beta names and now the thing is getting a little worrisome, when all of the circumspect start to move and that too very fast.

The likes of SAIL, Jaiprakash and REL Infra have been moving like photons on steroids over the course of this week. Also what has been interesting is that there are more names cooling off quickly like HDFC Bank, HDFC, ITC and these are classic top names with good quality behind them. So if these guys settle down and start to move down, then it is only time before we start losing momentum on the crappy stuff.

For now, this month could be the best for a long time to send New year Greetings to client’s along with the month end reports. J

Nifty has reached at strong resistance level of 5200. It is likely nifty here sees some profit booking/ consolidation for few days before the next upmove. If manages to close above 5200 for couple of days, nifty could head higher to 5350 in near term. If not, profit booking could take nifty lower to 5000 levels.

Keeping it short. Enjoy the weekend.

Morning Be!!....Nifty crosses 5200 mark in early morning trade

2012-01-27T10:46:00.000+05:30

Indian Markets

The frontline Indian stock indices advanced modestly in early minutes of trade on Friday, extending this week's rally after the RBI surprisingly slashed the cash reserve ratio (CRR) by an aggressive half a percentage point to ease liquidity conditions and boost credit.

The undercurrent today is also supported by a global rally after the Federal Reserve pledged to keep interest rates exceptionally low till the end of 2014 and indicated at a possible QE3 down the line to boost the US economy.

It seems as if most central banks are in accommodative mood to support domestic growth amid rising global uncertainties. This could potentially keep commodities, including crude and gold, firm. How much of this liquidity makes its way into equities (especially that of EMs) remains to be seen.

After the RBI’s 50 bps CRR cut, the Federal Reserve has surprised the markets by pledging to keep interest rates “exceptionally low” till late 2014. Besides, the Fed has also hinted at QE3 in future to mitigate the impact on the US from the euro area debt debacle. Meanwhile, even Brazil has hinted at further rate cuts.

US and European Markets

Talks on a debt swap to lower Greece’s borrowings and avert a collapse of the economy are scheduled to resume today.European finance ministers have insisted that Greek bondholders take bigger losses on their debt. The IMF has suggested that public holders of Greek bonds might have to increase their support. Private bondholders have agreed with European officials to implement a 50% cut in the face value of more than 200 billion euros ($262 billion) of Greek debt by voluntarily swapping bonds for new securities.

The euro fell today, snapping a four-day gain against the dollar on concern that Greece might default on its debt. The yen rose amid some safer haven buying. The dollar’s appreciation was limited.

Asian Markets

Today, the Asian markets are trading in the green with Strait times & KOSPI trading up by 0.3% each. Nikkei is trading up by 0.4%, while Hang Seng was up by 0.6%. The Chinese and Taiwan markets remained closed. SGX Nifty is trading higher by 49 points over Wednesday?s close.

Currencies

The Indian Rupee fell on Wednesday as US Dollar demand from oil importers for month-end payments offset a rise in the local share market, although traders said likely dollar sales by the central bank pulled it off the day's low.

Commodities

Oil was trading near the highest price in a week, heading for the first weekly gain in three. Gold traders are bullish for a fourth consecutive week.

Key events to watch for today

US : Fed Balance Sheet, Money Supply, GDP (Q-o-Q), Consumer Sentiment

India : WPI (Y-o-Y)

Outlook

The Indian Markets are likely to open higher following positive Asian cues. However, at higher levels it could witness some profit taking later during the day. Immediate resistance levels for the Nifty stand at 5215. Downside support to watch is at 5125. Among the sectoral indices, Auto, Consumer Durables and Metals could do well.

Faster, Higher, Stronger…

2012-01-25T17:41:00.000+05:30

No it is yet time for the 2012 Olympics which are going to be held in London in a few weeks; but it feels like the Indian stock markets are already cheering for our participants for the event. This being a short week and earnings continuing to pour in, the market seem to have caught in some kind of rhythm. Last night’s fall in the US markets too, did not deter a very positive stance posed by the frontline counters. Sure there is continued volatility amongst the mid/small cap space and that is evident from the fact that the BSE 200 index names (notable amongst them) were trading at significant negative territory. Names such as IRB, Biocon, Tata Power, L&T etc were trading in red, however the financial institutions and Autos were zooming like racing on F1 tracks.

Today’s star performers were Tata Motors (this stock has been up 30% YTD, similar to other large cap infra names such as L&T) and host of high beta names such as REL Infra and JaiPrakash and the session itself marks a great victory of sorts for the Indian stock market since the momentum for the start of the year, week after week has been relentless; which has been the highlight.

With expiry today, the buying support was evident; however with tomorrow being an off day, and only one more trading day left for the week I expect very less volume on the markets for the rest of the week. Finally, we close the month next week and whoa! What a month this could turn out to be.

This definitely set the pace for the entire rest of 2012.

Happy Republic Day – India. Long Live the Republic.

Morning Be!!......Indices Up,after the RBI surprised the markets with a wider-than-expected 50 bps cut in the CRR

2012-01-25T11:30:00.001+05:30

Indian Markets

The key Indian equity benchmarks have advanced in early morning trade, extending the previous session's stellar rally after the RBI surprised the markets with a wider-than-expected 50 bps cut in the CRR. Many experts see this as a precursor to a rate cut in the coming months.

However, the central bank has flagged several potential risks to its monetary stance. So, a reversal in its rate hike cycle may not materialise before its April policy meeting.

The undertone is also upbeat on the back of strong gains in other Asian markets like Japan and Australia despite a whole host of downbeat news. The January rally in part has been driven by robust inflows from the overseas investors. FIIs have poured in more than US$1bn into Indian equities after valuations dropped in the wake of last year's 25% fall in the BSE Sensex.

But, read the full RBI policy statement and there are ample reasons for one to be cautious. The biggest of them is the Government’s messy fiscal position. Whether the Centre obliges the RBI Governor and rectifies the situation on its finances remains to be seen. Given the context, Union Budget would be interesting this time around.

Major Results Today:

Alstom Projects, AP Paper, Asahi India, BEML, BOB, Deepak Fertilizers, Future Capital, Himatsingka Seide, Indian Hotels, IRB Infra, Sesa Goa, Union Bank, Vijaya Bank, REC, Patni computer, Oracle Financial, L&T Finance, Kirloskar Oil Engines, Tata Communications, Tata Global Beverages, Sterlite Technologies, PTC India Financial and JB Chemicals

US and European Markets

U.S. stocks ended mostly in the red on Tuesday as investors awaited progress on Greek debt talks and waded through another batch of corporate results. Dow Jones lost 33 points, or 0.3%, and S&P 500 shed 1 points, or 0.1%. Nasdaq managed to gain 2 points, or 0.1%.

European stocks fell Tuesday, as investors awaited further news on Greek debt negotiations, after euro-zone finance ministers rejected an offer from private bondholders to help restructure the country's debt. Britain's FTSE 100 slid 0.5%, DAX in Germany dropped 0.3% and France's CAC 40 lost 0.5%.

Asian Markets

Today, the Asian markets are trading in the green with Strait times & KOSPI trading up by 0.9% each. Nikkei is trading up by 1%. While the other Asian markets including Shanghai, Hang Seng & Taiwan are closed. SGX Nifty is trading higher by 37 points.

Currencies

The Indian Rupee erased most of its intraday gains on US Dollar demand from oil refiners on Tuesday, after hitting a 10-week high, driven by local shares that rose on expectations the central bank will shift its policy towards boosting growth.

Commodities

Among the metals, only Zinc ended higher by 1.6% while Nickel fell by 1.7%. Copper and Aluminium ended lower by 0.8% and 0.2% respectively. Oil for March delivery decreased 63 cents to settle at $98.95 a barrel. Gold futures for February delivery fell $13.80 to settle at $1,664.50 an ounce.

Key events to watch for today

India : IIP Core (YoY)

Outlook

The Indian Markets are likely to open higher following positive global cues. However, at higher levels it could witness some profit taking later during the day. Immediate resistance levels for the Nifty stand at 5200. Downside support to watch is at 5034. Among the sectoral indices, Banks, Capital Goods & Metals could do well.

Among the other potential risks include possible reversal in the USD-INR, crude oil and limited pass-through on domestic fuels. The short point is, one should not get carried away with January’s rally, which is partly driven by FII flows. Be vigilant and look at the bigger picture. In the short-term, things could turn bad again. Apart from the domestic risks mentioned, markets might be hit by unforeseen accidents on the external front, especially from Europe.

Dr. Subbu; thank you very much!

2012-01-24T19:20:00.000+05:30

Finally we have a 50bps of CRR cut and a dovish policy stance from the guv and this paves way for the much needed rate cuts in the oncoming policy review in early March 2012. The market seems to have provided a thumbs up to the announcement since it was on expected lines and now a rate cut in the next six months with a meaningfully slower economic activity in the next quarter making a case for a fast and swift cut in lending rate a possibility.

The notable runner for the day were the banking and beta sectors running like sprinters in a marathon match. Though there is good news, the positive effects would be long term in nature and nothing to running like being chased by a lion. But stock markets offer extremes and like extreme sports, is not really for the faint hearted. So we have excellent performances for the month of January 2012 from even the bigges such as SBI, L&T and IDFC all of whom have delivered 25% returns since the start of the year. Now to put things in perspective these stock were down 50% for the entire 2011 and the recovery is incomplete unless they double from their lowest levels; which is still far away. Nevertheless some consolation.

With expiry in the F&O segment tomorrow, expect some volatility and this being a short week, we could have more volatility on Friday too.

All in all, looks like we clocked close to 12% MTD (month-to-date) this month and by the looks of it, we could be closing very strongly by the end of this month. With January 2012 starting on such as positive note, it is likely that the entire 2012 could well close in the positive for equities; though very early to predict, the possibility of a firm positive close is very high.

Morning Bell.......The market is eagarly awaiting the credit policy to be declared today

2012-01-24T10:10:00.000+05:30

Indian Markets

The Sensex opened with 70 points gap up amid volatile trade on Tuesday. The market is eagarly awaiting the credit policy to be declared today. While opinions are mixed, some feel that the RBI is likely to cut cash reserve ratio (CRR), many still feel that for now the central bank will maintain a status quo with a dovish outlook

US & European Markets

U.S. stocks closed the day flat, after drifting above and below the break even line Monday. Investors grew jittery amid uncertainty surrounding Greek debt talks. Dow Jones closed down 12 points, or 0.1%. S&P 500 gained 0.6 points, or 0.05%. Nasdaq moved down 3 points, or 0.1%.

European stocks rose on hopes that attempts to address the latest phase of the Greek debt crisis would be successful. Britain's FTSE 100 closed up 0.9%, DAX in Germany added 0.4% and France's CAC 40 ticked up 0.6%.

All the Indian ADRs ended in the green except Wipro, which fell by 0.9% while Satyam gained the most 3.3%. Tata Communications and MNTL rose by 2.8% each while ICICI Bank rose by 1.5%. Dr Reddys and HDFC Bank ended higher by 1.4% and 1.2% respectively while Infosys rose by 1%. Tata Motors rose marginally by 0.1%.

Asian Markets

Today, among the Asian indices, only the Japanese index Nikkei is open and is trading higher by 0.4%. SGX Nifty is trading higher by 19 points.

Currencies

The Indian Rupee jumped 21 paise to a two-and-a-half month high of Rs 50.10/11 against the US Dollar on the back of sustained capital inflows and weakness in the American currency overseas.

Commodities

Oil for February delivery slipped $2.28 to $98.11 a barrel. Oil for March delivery, which becomes the active contract at the close of trade Friday, lost $2.21 to $99.33. Gold futures for February delivery added $9.50 to $1,664.00 an ounce.

Key events to watch for today

India - Third Quarter Review of Monetary Policy

Outlook for Today

Today, we expect the Indian Markets to open in the green and later trade in a range through the day. Support on Nifty is at 5,000 while resistance is at 5,100. Among the sectors, Bankex could do well today also while Oil & Gas stocks could underperform.

Sources- hdfc sec, moneycontrol

Waiting for Dr. Subbu

2012-01-24T09:42:00.002+05:30

What started out in a forceful manner is now showing its true colors. The earnings season is under full swing and there are many losers here than those standing tall; and though revenue numbers are really very strong, profits are plunging like falling nine pins. Well, this is that phase of the business cycle where companies would try to raise prices, curtail expenses and try to secure profits. While doing this, typically revenues would stagnate and so would profits – in fact profits would move into losses for companies.

This is typically the bottom of the cycle and we are getting very close to it. The stock prices would typically take a final dip (over and above the 40% falls that many counters saw). This is the best time to shop around for bargains. I would imagine that the first half of the calendar is the period where this phenomenon would be wide spread. Beyond this, most of the bargain hunters would emerge and if the cycle turning around becomes eminent stock would start to move faster than you can capture or participate.

The denial mode for investors where they expect prices (stocks) to correct/fall before they buy again would come into play. Alas it becomes too late and it goes on higher and higher. Finally the cycle repeats on the upside as well. And there is a set of investor who like foxes (those foolish varieties) who always curse the sour grapes. They curse when the market falls that they don’t make money and they curse the market when stocks rise since they did not participate.

So it is important that we don’t become these foxes.

Today, was a breather sort of a day; a day where despite everything moving the index did not do much. The churn was evident. The banks were dancing and shaking a leg. Did Dr. Subbu whisper something in the ears of these bankers. God alone knows. Tomorrow, Dr. Subbu would announce some thing like – CRR, SLR and repo Reverse repo etc. up, down or holding same and the market would dance, frown and move.

Such is the importance of this man, since he could slow or hasten your decision on what you do with your money.

We are waiting.

Morning Be!!....Sensex opened with 72 points gap down following disappointing results from Index heavyweight Reliance

2012-01-23T10:09:00.001+05:30

Indian Markets

The Sensex opened with 72 points gap down following disappointing results from Index heavyweight Reliance. The market recovered immediately to trade flat led by banks and technology stocks. Even the buyback offer from Reliance supported the market to cut losses.

The Sensex was down 17.17 points at 16,721.84 and the Nifty fell 6.3 points to 5,042.30.

Index heavyweight Reliance Industries lost over 4% due to disappointing results in Q3, but the downside capped led by company's buyback offer. The company's Q3 PAT fell 22% to Rs 4,440 crore QoQ; Board members of the company approved share buyback of Rs 10,440 crore and approved to buy back shares up to Rs 870/sh.

Anil Dhirubhai Ambani Group's stocks like Reliance Infra, Reliance Power and Reliance Capital were down 1-2%.

Maruti Suzuki and L&T were down 1% & 0.25%, respectively ahead of results today.

US & European Markets

U.S. investors were unwilling to place any big bets on Friday, as key Greek debt talks remain unresolved. Despite that, all three indexes still closed out the week more than 2% higher on robust economic data and strong earnings.

European stocks closed slightly down snapping a four-session run of gains, as investors lost patience with Greek debt negotiations. Britain's FTSE 100 ticked down 0.2%, while DAX in Germany slipped 0.2% and France's CAC 40 fell 0.2%.

The Indian ADRS ended mixed with Dr Reddys and Satyam losing 3% and 1.8% respectively. Wipro and ICICI Bank gained 4.5% and 3.8% respectively while Tata Communications and Infosys rose by 1.2% each. HDFC Bank fell by 1.4% while MTNL rose by 1%. Tata Motors fell by 0.1%.

Asian Markets

Today, among the Asian indices, only the Japanese index Nikkei is open and is trading higher by 0.1%. SGX Nifty is trading higher by 6 points.

Currencies

The Indian Rupee erased early gains on Friday hurt by dollar buying from oil refiners and importers, but losses in the greenback versus other majors kept a lid on further weakness.

Commodities

Among the metal prices, Nickel gained 2.2% while Copper lost 1.3%. Zinc fell by 0.8% while Aluminium rose by 0.2%. Oil for February delivery slipped $2.28 to $98.11 a barrel. Oil for March delivery, which becomes the active contract at the close of trade Friday, lost $2.21 to $99.33. Gold futures for February delivery added $9.50 to $1,664.00 an ounce.

Outlook for Today

Today, we expect the Indian Markets to open in the green and later witness some correction. Support on Nifty is at 4,980-4,900 while resistance is at 5,067-5,100. Among the sectors, Bankex could do well today also while FMCG stocks could under perform.

Source-: hdfc security, moneycontrol.com

Weekly Snapshot- Excellent start to the year so far; has RIL spoilt the party?

2012-01-21T11:48:00.001+05:30

The week gone by saw the Nifty taking out its near term resistances of 4899 and moving up further. It was the third consecutive week of gains with the Nifty gaining 3.75% W-o-W. Reflecting the positive sentiments, market breadth was positive in three out of the five trading sessions of the week.

Key Events

Indian Markets

India's inflation eased sharply in December. The wholesale price index rose 7.47% in December from a year earlier, compared with November's 9.11% increase, as food prices fell. India's annual food inflation rates for the week ended January 7 continue to hover around negative territory for the third consecutive week at 0.42 percent, due to a sharp dip in the prices of onion, vegetables, potato and wheat, prompting the Reserve Bank of India or RBI to cut interest rates in its monitory policy review next week. India's December exports rose an estimated annual 6.7% to $25 bn, while imports for the month were at $37.8 bn, leaving a trade deficit of $12.8 bn. Exports between April-December rose 25.8% to $217.6 bn. Trade Secretary Rahul Khullar said that that the trade deficit for the full fiscal year that ends in FY12, was estimated between $155 bn to $160 bn. A UN report stated that India's economic growth rate would remain subdued at 7.7% in 2012 and 7.9% in 2013 as downside risks have increased, mainly on account of problems in Europe and the US.

Outlook of the week

The start to the year 2012 from an equity markets perspective has no doubts been an excellent one, however, extrapolating this into linear fashion and thinking that the market would kiss 5500 and then 6000 would only meaning fooling in front of the moving road roller. Especially post the RIL results yesterday and outlook for the company remaining as green as ever, the market and more particularly FII’s and DII’s could particularly remain very ruthless and kill the stock to sub 700 levels in no time. And with that we could be ending the rally or the sustenance change over the next couple of weeks. For a sustenance of the rally we need more firm earnings numbers and not just one off’s since in weak sentiment times any bad news is blown out of proportion exactly the same way the good news is blown in bullish times.

So no time to get carried away and being more alert and opportunist in the current environment is the key to tide and consolidate the position in early 2012 at least. Expect some pressure in the following week and ofcourse some heavy stomach wrenching churn.

Sources:

HDFC Securities Weekly wrap of the Market

Right Horizons Equity Desk for Outlook for the coming week

"Investment Options In 2012"...Chat with Mr. Anil Rego (CEO. Right Horizons)

2012-01-20T14:15:00.001+05:30

Link- http://www.rediff.com/getahead/2012/jan/20chat-with-anil-rego-money-investment-options-in-2012.html

Time-: Friday, January 20 between 4 pm and 5 pm.

Financial planning is like a chess game. An investor will have to think in advance about investment option s/he would use and plan according to the options available. The year 2011 had many turning points for the retail investor in India. Growth in the Indian economy is being driven by consumption arising from a confluence of factors: a rising middle class, increasing urbanization and favorable demographics. As a result, retail and consumer goods and financial services have been among the most favored sectors for investors. While the main investment themes remain the same, experts noted that some new pockets of growth are also available now, such as education, healthcare, e-commerce, information technology and insurance.

Keeping all these points in mind, the retail investor will have to equip herself/himself to plan for her/his investments in the year 2012. Although there are many options like mutual funds, gold investments, tax efficient plans, the investor will have to choose which plans would suit her/his needs the best. The start of a new year is the best time to start afresh and use practical solutions to achieve your financial goals.

If you too are among the many who are confused as to which are the points to be kept in mind while choosing your investment option or are wondering which new avenues you must invest in this year then do join us for a chat with our financial expert, Anil Rego on Friday, January 20 between 4 pm and 5 pm.

About Anil Rego

Anil Rego is the Founder & CEO of Right Horizons, an end-to-end investment advisory and wealth management firm with multi-metro presence.

Morning Bell....Indian stock indices have extended their week's rally in early morning trade

2012-01-20T11:27:00.001+05:30

Indian Markets

The Indian stock indices have extended their week's rally in early morning trade, with the NSE Nifty firming above 5000 and the BSE Sensex crossing the 16,700 mark. The undercurrent remains positive on the back of strong inflows into Indian shares and debt this month. Also, there are signs of some cooling in inflation, providing ample room to the RBI to unload its series of rates hikes. The Government has also taken a few encouraging steps to push attract FDI and lift economic growth.

Finally, the overseas markets have been sending positive vibes all through the month. Barring the mass downgrade of eurozone members by the S&P, there has not been any major bad news from Europe or elsewhere. On the contrary, economic data coming out of the US, China and Germany have been encouraging.

The series of debt auctions by the fiscally strained euro area nations have also went off well. Greece is also likely to seal a deal on the proposed debt swap with the private creditors. So, all these ingredients have helped support the risk rally this month. It remains to be seen of the momentum can be sustained going forward

US and European Markets

U.S. stocks advanced for a third straight session on Thursday, rising to fresh six-month highs, thanks to solid gains in financial shares. Dow Jones added 46 points, or 0.4%, S&P 500 rose 6 points, or 0.5%, Nasdaq composite increased 19 points, or 0.7%. All three indexes closed at the highest levels since July.

European stocks rose on Thursday to the highest level since the beginning of last August, as Spain and France successfully sold EUR14.6 billion in government bonds. Britain's FTSE 100 ticked up 0.7%, DAX in Germany rose 1% and France's CAC 40 added 2%.

Asian Markets

Today, the Asian markets are trading in the green with Shanghai & Hang Seng trading higher by 0.4% each. Nikkei & Strait Times are trading up by 1.3% & 0.5% respectively, while Kospi is up by 0.9%. SGX Nifty is trading higher by 26 points.

Currencies

The Indian Rupee extended its gains to the sixth straight session vs. the US Dollar on Thursday, driven by robust dollar inflows and a surge in local equities, as risk appetite improved on news the IMF would step up its role in tackling the euro zone debt crisis.

Commodities

Among the metals, Copper gained the most (2.4%) followed by Nickel, which ended higher by 1.1%. Zinc and Aluminium rose by 0.8% and 0.2% respectively. Oil for February delivery slipped 20 cents to settle at $100.39 a barrel. Gold futures for February delivery ticked down $5.40 to settle at $1,654.50 an ounce, losing momentum from earlier gains.

Outlook

The Indian Markets are likely to open higher following positive global cues. However, at higher levels it could witness some profit taking later during the day. Immediate upside targets for the Nifty remain at 5100. Downside supports to watch are at 4990-4931. Among the sectoral indices, Banks, Realty & Metals could do well.

Sources- hdfc security, india infoline

First cracks; but bada bhai to rescue?

2012-01-19T13:44:00.000+05:30

Today’s session looked liked some serious cuts were in the offing in the earlier part of the day; however, with the “bada bhai” Mukesh throwing his weight around, who can mess around. RIL appears set to announce a Buy Back program in the upcoming Q3FY12 result announcement this Friday, 20th January 2012 and the stock has hit 5% uptick almost easily through the day ending at a respectable INR 780 or thereabouts.

By the looks of it, we think that there appears that the buyback price should be in the range of INR 875-950 range and that would make a statement to the world telling that the ‘bhai’ actually thinks his company is more valuable than the market is pricing it. This also could just be a confidence booster; for starters if the share price drops then actually the buyback would be in place, and if it rises in expectation, then he actually need not make the full buy back. Either ways ‘bhai’ wins.

As a result of the surge in RIL share price today, the Nifty index stayed afloat for most part of the day since RIL alone held 20 pts, in a sessions where the index was down marginally 10points, thereby protecting a larger downside.

What is interesting though to see is the extent to which this fall can be stemmed by the big mover of the day. My sense is that we could be struggling to keep higher levels since even with nice earnings being reported by the IT biggies, we are not holding on to levels achieved. What happens when the banks report and ugly number, if at all, come out is everyone’s guess.

All, in all looks like an interesting build up of things to come; looks like.

"Investing in 2012-What should be the investment strategy for the new year?"......Chat with Mr. Anil Rego ( CEO, Right Horizons)

2012-01-18T14:52:00.002+05:30

Welcome to Chat@moneycontrol.com.

18 Jan- 16:00hrs

Will market do better in 2012 compare to 2011?

Where should we see Indian economy?

What we can expect from the budget?

Do you have same questions in your mind????????????

We would like you to participate in the live chat with Mr. Anil Rego { CEO & Founder, Right Horizons} & you can plan your investment decision for 2012.

Faster, higher & stronger!

2012-01-18T14:32:00.001+05:30

Over the last 11 trading sessions in January 2012 so far, only two or so marginal negative closes and today was a convincing pull shot over long on for six! What a T20 match this could turn out to be. The Shewags & Dhonis (read Jaiprakash & Tata Motors) are leading the attack from the front. Jaiprakash & Tata Motors have provided 20.85% & 21.45% returns in just 11 trading days so far in 2012 while the Nifty Index has provided only 7.65% during the same period.

Well, there are other scorers too, and the list in the 50 heros who are racing is long. These two are standing out. Yeah, the previous match (2011) was a mini disaster for these players, but if this continues then we are looking at some sort of redemption from these stocks.

The match has just begun and there is lot to come in the coming weeks / months. Near terms the earnings season has just started, so this is not the right time to uncork the bubbly and party. By mid-February 2012, will we know where we are heading amongst other things. In between, we also have to contend with the Dr. Subbu effect which returns (like a comet) on January 24, 2012.

Today a lot of beta got traded and I now wonder what we would be closing this week like. I only hope the positive momentum set this week retains for another three days, since with this; we could be closing on a really firm note. Plus, if the Dr. relents and cuts rate by a minor margin, then we could have it all the heading to 5100.

I would then turn on with caution and assess the situation. But for now, let us let our hair down and let the music flow.

Morning Be!!.......Indian stock indices have posted smart gains in early morning trade

2012-01-17T10:28:00.000+05:30

Indian Markets

The frontline Indian stock indices have posted smart gains in early morning trade, as investors welcome better-than-expected fourth-quarter GDP growth in China and a successful debt sale in France. Besides, inflation back home has cooled off considerably amid increasing expectations of a reversal in the RBI's hawkish monetary policy stance sooner or later.

Auto, Consumer Durables, Realty, Bankex, Power, Oil and Gas, IT, PSU, FMCG indices are the gainers.

The momentum seems to be in favour of the bulls so far, with most constituents of the main indices flaring up and most sectoral indices on the BSE and NSE advancing. The market breadth is positive as well.

Banking, Auto, Metals, Realty, Capital Goods and Power indices on the BSE are up 1-2%. The remaining sectoral indices on the BSE have gained 0.5% to 1%.

News of the day

- GoM to discuss FDI in aviation today

- Dewan Housing approves acquisition of stake in 'unlisted NBFC'

- Coal India to invite fresh bids for Mozambique blocks

- NCC mulls Infra arm, bond issue to raise money - DNA

-Times group in race to buy Neo cricket, Neo Sports, also eyes TV9

US and European Markets

The US markets were closed on Monday in observance of the Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday.

European stocks closed slightly higher Monday, shrugging off Standard & Poor's downgrade of nine eurozone governments. Britain's FTSE 100 gained 0.4%, the DAX in Germany gained 1.3% and France's CAC 40 added 0.9%.

Asian Markets

Barring Shanghai, which is trading marginally lower by 0.1%, all the other Asian indices are trading in the green with Hang Seng & Nikkei trading higher by 1.5% & 0.6% respectively. Strait Times & Kospi are trading higher by 0.6% & 1.3% respectively, while Taiwan is trading in the green by 0.7%. SGX Nifty is trading lower by 2 points.

Currencies

The Indian Rupee reversed all early losses on Monday to end higher stoked by US Dollar inflows and boosted by a rebound in the local share market.

Commodities

Among the metals, Aluminium, Copper & Zinc gained 0.5%, 0.6% & 0.5% respectively, while Nickel ended lower by 1.7%.

Outlook

Today, the Indian market could open on a flat note and inch up later during the day. With the markets ending higher yesterday, the underlying trend remains up. Immediate upside targets are at 4910. Crucial supports to watch on the downside are at 4840-4800. Among the sectoral indices, Banking & IT are looking good, while Oil & Gas is looking weak & could underperform.

Sources-hdfcsec, india infoline

The EURO contagion does not effect!

2012-01-16T18:01:00.001+05:30

Just like in those Murphy’s law that we read “If things are going to go wrong, they will” no matter what you do. The corollary is also true; “if things are going to go right, they will”. Today session was fraught with a lot of heaviness of the bad news coming out during the weekend. The EURO nations being downgraded, the economy yet to warm up to the earnings being released. Infosys earnings not being enthusiastic from market perspective.

Yet the market today meandered between positive and negative and closed in the Green. Howz that, for a change. It now firmly moves, albeit slowly towards a firm closing for the month of January 2012. Now a great deal also depends upon how the other Big Brothers (TCS/RIL/ICICI/HDFC Bank) report their earnings cards.

I have a feeling that we could be drifting towards Mt. 5000 over the course of the next couple of weeks if all these minor ambushes are taken care of.

All in all, with each passing day, though the vulnerability exists, a great start so far to the year 2012 from a markets perspective. Hopefully, no Voodoo, happens till expiry and we should open the first 15 overs of the match with a good run rate. Elsewhere in Aussieland, there lies no hope. However, that is a different story altogether.

Morning Bell !!......The Sensex opened 70 points down following weak Asian cues, reacting to the spate of downgrades in nine eurozone countries by rating agency S&P last weekend

2012-01-16T10:56:00.002+05:30

Indian Markets

Indian frontline indices fell marginally in the opening deals, tracking a broadbased decline in Asian markets after the Standard & Poor's downgrade as many as nine Eurozone nations, raising fears over the region's long-running debt crisis and its implications for the global economy.

IT, Teck, FMCG indices are the gainers. Power, PSU, HC,Auto, Oil and Gas, Realty, Bankex, Metal indices are the losers.

Wipro, Bharti Airtel, TCS, Infosys, Maruti Suzki, were among the notable leaders in the Sensex and the Nifty.

RIL, ICICI Bank, Coal India, Ranbaxy, L&T, Sun Pharma, HDFC Bank, SBI, Tata Motors, Tata Steel,Hero MotoCorp, HDFC were among the notable losers in the Sensex and the Nifty.

US and European Markets

U.S. stocks finished in the red Friday as anxious investors braced for a string of credit rating downgrades for eurozone countries. JPMorgan Chase's disappointing fourth-quarter earnings also weighed on the market. Dow Jones dropped 49 points, or 0.4%, S&P 500 fell 6 points, or 0.5%, and Nasdaq composite lost 14 points, or 0.5%.

European stocks closed slightly lower, amid downgrade concerns. Britain's FTSE 100 fell 0.5%, DAX in Germany dropped 0.6% and France's CAC 40 shed 0.1%. Standard & Poor's has downgraded the credit ratings of nine euro area governments, including AAA-rated France and Austria.

Asian Markets

Today the Asian indices are trading in the red with Nikkei and Kospi trading lower by 1.5% each while Strait Times is down 1.1%. Hang Seng and Taiwan are down by 1% each while Shanghai is down 0.8%. SGX Nifty is trading lower by 46 points.

Currencies

The Indian rupee surged to a near six-week high against the U.S. dollar Friday but gave up most of the gains in late trade on aggressive dollar buying by oil importers and as the euro weakened after an underwhelming Italian debt auction. Rupee ended 5 paise or 0.1% higher against US Dollar to Rs.51.52.

Key events to watch for today

China GDP

India Monthly WPI

Outlook

Today, the Indian market is likely to open on a negative note following weak Asian cues. Later it could take cues from the monthly inflation data to be announced today. Among the sectoral indices, Banking, Auto and Realty stocks could underperform while Healthcare and FMCG could do well.

Sources- hdfcsec, india infoline

Weekly Market Snapshot.....The Nifty broke out of the 4686-4800 trading range in the process and gained 2.51% W-o-W.

2012-01-14T11:01:00.001+05:30

Rally continues

Markets ended with gains for the second consecutive week. The Nifty broke out of the 4686-4800 trading range in the process and gained 2.51% W-o-W. Reflecting the positive sentiments, market breadth was positive in all the five trading sessions of the week.

The biggest gainers from the CNX 500 were Uttam Steel, LITL, IB Power and Rel Industrial Infra. The biggest losers were Sterling Bio, Indraprastha Gas, Infy, TCS and Network 18.

Indian Markets

Food prices fell for the second consecutive week as food inflation remained in the negative zone at (-)2.90 % for the week ended December 31, 2011. Food inflation, as measured by the Wholesale Price Index (WPI), stood at (-)3.36 % in the previous week. It was above 19 % in the corresponding week of 2010.

India's industrial production grew 5.9 per cent in November, aided by a robust 6.6 per cent growth in manufacturing output while production of capital goods continued to fall. Mining output growth remained in the negative territory in November too (-4.4 per cent as against -6 per cent in October and 6.9 per cent in November 2010) while capital-goods production, an indicator of business investment, shed 4.6 per cent, having risen 25.7 per cent a year earlier.

India's non-food credit offtake went up by just 16.1% to Rs 44.99 lakh crore during the year ended December 30, 2011, reflecting the impact of the high interest rate regime.

Key Sectoral Movement

Barring BSE IT, which fell by 6.9% all the other sectoral indices ended in the green. The top gainers were Realty, Metals, Power and Capital Goods, which rose by 13.1%, 9.8%, 8.6% and 8.5% respectively.

Outlook of the week

With the markets ending with gains for the second consecutive week, the short term trend continues to remain up. Immediate upside targets for the Nifty in the coming week are at 4910. Crucial supports to watch on the downside are at 4840-4800.

Sources- hdfcsec

Morning Be!!......Indian Indices trading in green

2012-01-13T10:13:00.000+05:30

Indian Markets

The BSE Sensex was 16,122, up 85 points over the previous close. It had earlier touched a day’s high of 16,168 and Today’s low of 16,107. It opened at 16,144.

NSE Nifty was quoting 4,854, up 22 points over the previous close. It has earlier touched a day’s high of 4,868 and a day’s low of 4,851. It opened at 4,861.

Infosys, Wipro, TCS, Sun Pharma, M&M, L&T, BHEL, NTPC, SBI, Coal India, Tata Motors, Tata Power, Sterlite Inds, Hindalco Inds, Tata Steel, , were among the notable leaders in the Sensex and the Nifty.

Hero MotoCorp, GAIL India, HDFC, DRREDDY, ITC were among the notable losers in the Sensex and the Nifty.The BSE Small-Cap and BSE Mid-Cap index was trading flat at 1%.

FMCG, Bankex, PSU, Realty, Metal, Oil and Gas, Auto, Power, IT and Oil and Gas indices are the gainers.

US and European Markets

Stocks sputtered on Thursday, but managed to close the day slightly higher. Dow Jones closed up 22 points, or 0.2%. S&P 500 gained 3 points, or 0.2%. Nasdaq moved up 14 points, or 0.5%.

Asian Markets

Today the Asian indices are trading in the green except Shanghai, which is down by 0.4%. Nikkei is trading higher by 1.1% while Kospi and Strait Times are up 0.6% each. Hang Seng and Taiwan are up 0.3% each. SGX Nifty is trading marginally lower by 4 points.

Currencies

The Indian rupee closed higher on Thursday vis-a-vis the US Dollar as foreign funds continued to invest in local debt, though weak domestic shares and dollar demand from oil importers put a lid on gains. The Reserve Bank of India probably sold dollars around the 51.74 rupee level in late trading, which further supported the currency, traders said.

Commodities

Among the metals, Copper gained 3.4% while Zinc rose by 1.6%. Aluminium and Nickel ended higher by 1.3% and 1% respectively. Oil for February delivery lost $1.73 to $99.14 a barrel. Gold futures for February delivery gained $8.10 to $1,647.70 an ounce.

Outlook

Today, the Indian market is likely to open on a flat to negative note and remain rangebound. Support on Nifty is at 4,800 while resistance is at 4,910. Among the sectoral indices, IT and Oil & Gas stocks could underperform while Metals and FMCG could do well.

Sources- hdfc security, India infoline

Morning Be!!.......Indian indices slipped in the early morning trade, hurt by the disappointing Q3 results in USD terms from IT major Infosys.

2012-01-12T10:23:00.000+05:30

Indian Markets

The frontline Indian stock indices have slipped in the early morning trade, hurt by the disappointing Q3 results in USD terms from IT major Infosys. The Bangalore-based software giant has also announced a muted guidance for the fourth quarter.

The Infosys stock is down sharply along with other IT peers like TCS, Wipro and HCL Tech. The IT index on both BSE and NSE is down more than 4%. If you keep aside the IT basket, the rest of the market is not doing that badly. There are no major losers in the two main equity benchmarks except the software companies.

Markets took a breather after Tuesday’s stellar rally as investors appeared reluctant to commit ahead of the IIP data and Infosys results. IIP for November is expected to rebound from a disastrous October reading. One has to see if there is any upward revision of the October print of -5.1%.

Weekly food inflation is also due today. It is likely to stay in the negative zone, mostly owing to the statistical phenomenon called ‘base effect’. more important will be the inflation report for December, which is due on Monday.

US and European Markets

U.S. stocks recovered from earlier losses to end little changed on Wednesday as concerns about Europe's weak economy and debt crisis weighed on the market. The Dow Jones industrial average lost 13 points, or 0.1%, to end at 12,449. The S&P 500 edged up less than 1 point to 1,292. The Nasdaq gained 8 points, or 0.3%, to 2,711.

European equity markets dropped on Wednesday, as energy stocks fell along with crude prices and as concerns about the euro-zone sovereign debt crisis weighed on sentiment. While DAX ended lower by 0.2%, FTSE & CAC ended lower by 0.5% & 0.2% respectively.

Asian Markets

Today the Asian indices are trading on a mix note. While Shanghai & Nikkei are trading lower by 0.6% & 0.7% respectively. Hang Seng, Kospi & Strait Times are trading in the green by 0.2% each. Taiwan is trading marginally higher by 0.1%. SGX Nifty is trading down by 6 points.

Currencies

The Indian Rupee snapped a three-day rising streak to end down on Wednesday, after see-sawing through the day, tracking choppy shares, with Dollar demand from oil importers and a weak euro weighing. A fragile European economy could further hurt sentiment and keep investors at bay, dragging the rupee lower against the dollar in coming days.

Commodities

Among the metals, Aluminium & Copper gained 0.3% & 0.7% respectively, while Zinc & Nickel ended lower by 0.2% and 0.1% respectively. Oil for February delivery slipped 51 cents to end at $101.71 a barrel. Gold futures for February delivery rose $9 to $1,640.50 an ounce.

Key events to watch for today

India - IIP

India -WPI

Outlook

Today, the Indian market are likely to open marginally lower and takes cues from the Infosys Q3FY12 results, the IIP numbers for the month of November and weekly inflation data due today. Among the sectoral indices, Realty, Metals & Banks look good, while FMCG could underperform. Better than expected results from Infosys could drive the IT index higher today.

Sources- HDFC SEC, India Infoline

The Opening batsman comes to bat tomorrow!

2012-01-11T16:42:00.000+05:30

The market is just waiting like the stadium which is full just before the 1st ball of the match is about to be bowled. Tomorrow Infosys Technologies opens it account on the first delivery of the match. And the market is waiting to see how confident the batsman is. And with the opening for tomorrow, we will then have all the participants of the parade coming in to show their wares.

If the firmness of the session preceding today is any indication and also today’s session; it seems apparent that we should be having a bang of an earnings season. Not because there will be absolute strength in the earnings per se, but because expectations are so beaten down that relatively we could be saying – “not bad” after all.

Today’s session was an eerie calm session which typically precedes the excitement that would begin soon. Am sure, all of the analyst and pundits on TV channels would be jumping and taking the hairs to the final shreds to see what lies ahead for the IT industry in particular and market in general tomorrow. Of course the print guys would bombard us with a long transcript and analysis a day later.

A very interesting file which stacks up while the Nifty has remained where it was in the past 5 months the constituents were all over the place. This makes the life of Fund managers (including – your’s truly) very difficult. The easiest way would be to buy the ETF and sleep tight. But of course we cannot do that and besides in challenge lies opportunity. But get it wrong and your are toast.

So my sense is this opportunity is going to be present in the next 6 months too; READ: that there will be enough things that will go right and wrong with Nifty companies and am sure, like in the past, we would get it right this time too.

So bear with us; and yes please don’t miss this bus. I am sure that by December 2012 we could be seeing double digit (high teens) type of returns for equity asset class. So please pitch in and get more money into this.

Morning Be!!.....Indian stock indices appear to be in 'no-man's-land' in early morning trade

2012-01-11T10:54:00.000+05:30

Indian Markets

The frontline Indian stock indices appear to be in 'no-man's-land' in early morning trade after a strong rally in the preceding session, as investors prefer to stay on the sidelines ahead of an important trading day on Thursday. Markets will digest the latest data on industrial production besides results from finance major HDFC and IT titan Infosys.

Despite the sluggish trend in Large-Cap shares, the market breadth is positive due to persistent gains in the broader indices. The BSE Small-Cap and the BSE Mid-Cap indices have gained for a third successive session this week. The two broader market benchmarks are up ~0.5% each at the moment.For India, the most eagerly awaited events this month is the January 24 RBI policy meeting. Meanwhile, the prospects for the Indian economy continue to look rather glum in the face of mixed bag macro-economic numbers.

US and European Markets

U.S. stocks advanced Tuesday, on the back of gains in global markets, as investors grew optimistic following upbeat comments about Europe and a decent start to quarterly corporate results. Dow Jones rose 70 points, or 0.6%, and S&P 500 added 11 points, or 0.9%. Both indexes finished at their highest levels since July. Nasdaq composite increased 26 points, or 1%.

Tuesday's broad move higher came as investors found comfort in Fitch Rating's comments about Europe being on the right path toward solving its debt problems.

The Census Bureau reported that wholesale inventories for the month of November rose 0.1%.

Asian Markets

Today the Asian indices are trading in the green except Kospi and Shanghai, which are down by 0.3% and 0.2% respectively. Nikkei and Hang Seng are trading higher by 0.2% each while Strait Times and Taiwan are up by 0.1% each. SGX Nifty is trading higher by 4.5 points.

Currencies

The Indian rupee rose to a one-month high against the US Dollar on Tuesday, boosted by a spate of fund inflows from overseas investors into high-yielding local debt. The gains were accentuated by thin volumes, highlighting the sharp swings that have resulted from a recent central bank rule limiting speculative trades in the currency market. Also comments from a federal government official that Moody's had upgraded India's short-term country ceiling on foreign currency bank deposits boosted sentiments.

Commodities

Among the metals, Aluminium gained the most (3.7%) followed by Zinc, which rose by 3%. Nickel and Copper ended higher by 2.8% and 1.9% respectively.Oil for February delivery added 93 cents to settle at $102.24 a barrel. Gold futures for February delivery gained $23.40 to settle at $1,631.50 an ounce.

Outlook

Today, the Indian market is likely to open on a flat to positive note. 4,800 on the nifty holds as a strong support and until this level gets breached the uptrend could continue. Among the sectoral indices, Metals and IT stocks could do well.

Source- HDFC SECURITY, India Infoline

Surprised by this pullback?

2012-01-11T10:27:00.000+05:30

While all doomsayers on Indian equities have indeed pretty much written off our stock market in 2012 citing amongst all; expensive relative valuation, earnings downgrade, sluggish macro and continued & persistent inflation etc., the markets YTD (since Jan 2, 2012) now returns around 4.9% and not bad for a beginning, I might add.

The earnings season kicks off tomorrow with the Infosys Technologies reporting and looks like it would be a cracker of an earnings season. What everybody is really paranoid about is the future earnings and outlook for the markets; but sometimes it is human psyche that in the penchant for looking ahead and at opportunities we miss out on what we have today, also forget to collect the hanging fruit which could have been easily savored.

Anyways, on the session that happened today; I must admit that am sure that the naysayers would be wanted it desperately for the markets to drift down, but with every passing hour the market powered it’s way up and the bulls would be happy and the doomsayers wanting to forget the session. The real wonder would happen if over the course of the earnings season (over the next couple of weeks) we drift upwards and close January 2012 by double digit returns. In that event, the question that could come up is – does it really set the tone for the year ahead?

Just to recall, 2011 was just the kind of start we did not want; with the market tanking around 11% in a single month and post that we all know what had happened, so for all those who say that equities are stupid asset class, are just for punting and you always lose money, it could be a golden opportunity to make a killing.

Early days still; since December 2012 is far away. For now it appears that we could close January 2012 with decent gains.

Morning Bell !!...Key indices trading in green with positive Asian market cues

2012-01-10T11:34:00.000+05:30

Indian Markets

The key Indian stock indices have climbed in early morning trade with the BSE Sensex up well over 100 points and the NSE Nifty reclaiming the 4,750 mark. Market breadth is fairly positive as the broader indices have extended gains from the previous session. Most sectoral indices on the BSE are trading in the positive terrain.

US and European Markets

Stocks edged higher on Monday as investors continued to keep a close eye on events in Europe and geared up for the start of fourth-quarter corporate earnings announcements. Dow Jones rose 33 points, or 0.3%, to end at 12,393. S&P 500 added 3 points, or 0.2%, to 1,281. Nasdaq composite rose 2 points, or 0.2%, to 2,676.

European stock markets finished lower Monday, as German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy failed to inspire market participants with their latest meeting, while downbeat German data added to the weaker tone. Britain's FTSE 100 and DAX in Germany both lost 0.7% and France's CAC 40 eased 0.3%.

Asian Markets

Today the Asian indices are trading in the in the green with Kospi trading higher by 1.8% while Taiwan is up 1.1%. Shanghai is up by 0.8% while Strait Times is up 0.6%. Nikkei is up 0.5%. SGX Nifty is trading higher by 23 points.

Currencies

the Indian Rupee rose for the second day to close at nearly three-week high of 52.51/52 against the Dollar, up by 20 paise on sustained selling of the US currency by exporters.

Commodities

Among the metals, Copper fell by 0.4% while Aluminium gained the most (2%). Zinc and Nickel rose by 1.4% and 1.2% respectively. Oil for February delivery fell 25 cents to settle at $101.31 a barrel. Gold futures for February delivery declined $8.70 to $1,608.10 an ounce.

Outlook

Today, the Indian market is likely to open in the green on the back of global cues and positive European news. Among the sectoral indices, Auto, Banking and IT stocks could do well.

Sources- hdfc security, india infoline

Morning Be!!....Sensex down 99 points to 15,750.08 and the Nifty slipped 29 points to 4,718.30

2012-01-09T10:19:00.000+05:30

Indian Markets

The Indian main indices have lost ground early on with the NSE Nifty dipping below the 4750 mark while the BSE Sensex lost 100 points. But, the broader market is faring relatively better and therefore the market breadth is even.

Gail India is trading slightly up after it was inducted into the Sensex. Gail replaces Jaiprakash Associates, which is in the red after market regulator SEBI penalized its promoters for alleged insider trading. Reliance Power is up on reports that Northern Coalfields (NCL) has agreed to surrender land required to mine two blocks attached to the Sasan ultra mega power plant.

This week is crucial as the Government will announce the latest IIP and inflation data. Also, the Q3 earnings season will kick off in the right earnest. Infosys and HDFC will release their numbers on Thursday.

Meanwhile, the Election Commission is likely to reschedule the first phase of the Uttar Pradesh assembly polls. It was to begin on February 4. The new date of the first phase will be announced shortly.

US and European Markets

US equity benchmarks pared weekly gains on Friday despite an encouraging report on the country's labour market. Investors chose to focus on the worsening credit crisis in the eurozone. The euro dropped below $1.27 for the first time since September 2010, sliding 1.7% for the week. The dollar index rose above 81, hitting one-year high. Most European stock indices fell on Friday as Italy’s 10-year government bond yield surged above 7%. The ECB reportedly intervened in the secondary markets to buy Spanish and Italian bonds. A yield of more than 7% is generally viewed as unsustainable for the debt-strapped governments in the euro area.

Asian Markets

Today the Asian indices are trading in the red except Shanghai, which is up by 1.3%. Kospi is trading lower by 1.5% while Strait Times is down 1%. Hang Seng and Taiwan are down by 0.8% and 0.7% respectively. SGX Nifty is trading lower by 33 points.

Currencies

The Indian Rupee closed stronger vis-a-vis the Dollar on Friday, ending the week with a 0.7% gain as foreign investors bought local debt.

Commodities

Among the metals, Zinc lost 0.3% while Copper gained 0.7%. Aluminium and Nickel rose by 0.5% each. Oil for February delivery lost 53 cents to $101.28 a barrel. Gold futures for February delivery fell $3.30 to $1,616.80 an ounce.

Outlook

Today, the Indian market is likely to open on a flat to negative note. It could trade in a range with a negative bias. Among the sectoral indices, Banking and Oil & Gas stocks could underperform while FMCG stocks could do well.

Sources- HDFC Security/ India Infoline/ Rh Morning market update

Weekly Snap shot !!!....India's benchmark share indices ended nearly 3% up

2012-01-07T17:46:00.000+05:30

Markets end the first week of 2012 in the green. India's benchmark share indices ended nearly 3% up in the week to January 7, led by banks and capital goods shares. While Sensex gained 394 pts or 2.6% to end at 15,849, Nifty was up 123 pts or 2.7% to end at 4,747.

The biggest gainers from the CNX 500 were TSC India, NFL, RCF and Tata Metallics. The biggest losers were Sterling Biotech, Hero MotoCorp, TVS Motors and Baja Auto.

Key Events

Global Markets

Euro region inflation slowed for the first time in five months in December, giving the European Central Bank room to lower borrowing costs further as the economy edges toward a recession. The inflation rate in the 17-nation euro area fell to 2.8% from 3% in November as per the European Union's statistics office report.

Singapore's economy shrank for the second time in three quarters as manufacturing eased, increasing pressure on policy makers to spur growth as they forecast slower expansion this year. Gross domestic product fell an annualized 4.9% in the fourth quarter of 2011 from the previous three months, when it climbed a revised 1.5%.

China's December PMI data ceased its sliding trend for two consecutive months and ended 2011 with a slight rebound. The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), a preliminary readout of the country's manufacturing activity, rebounded to 50.3% in December, indicating a stabler slowing trend for the country's economic growth.

Indian Markets

Private equity (PE) and venture capital (VC) investments in India rose 41% in 2011 over the previous year, the highest since 2007 as a sluggish capital market and costlier debt led Indian companies to approach these investors for fresh funds.

India's food price index declined for the first time in nearly six years as costs of pulses and vegetables fell, raising hopes that December's headline inflation rate could drop below 9% for the first time in more than a year. The fuel inflation accelerated to 14.6%, government data released during the week showed.

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) bought shares worth Rs 381.42 crore on 5th January 2012, as per provisional data from the stock exchanges. FII inflow totaled Rs 775.78 crore in three trading sessions on 3 to 5 January 2012, as per provisional data from the stock exchanges.

India raised iron ore export duties to 30% from 20% as it seeks to conserve supplies for the domestic steel industry. The new rate of 30% is applicable on both fine and lumps.

Key Sectoral Movement

Except BSE FMCG all other sectoral indices ended in the green. The top gainers were Capital Goods, PSU, Bankex and Metals, which rose by 6.2%, 6.2%, 6% and 5.4% respectively.

Outlook of the week

The focus for the next few weeks would be the Q3 results and guidance from the company managements on outlook for the remaining part of the year and for the next year. The market has been trading in a tight range of 4,700-4,800 on the Nifty. A breakout either way would decide future course of the market.

Source- HDFC Security

Morning Be!!.....The frontline Indian stock indices advanced at the opening bell

2012-01-05T10:45:00.001+05:30

Indian Markets

The frontline Indian stock indices advanced at the opening bell and are trading just a tad higher in early morning trade with the BSE Sensex within striking distance of the 16,000 mark and the NSE Nifty above 4750.

The market breadth is positive as broader indices too have posted slim gains in early morning trade. India VIX is flat and most sectoral indices are trading in the positive territory.

The early bounce across world stocks has tapered off a wee bit as old worries have returned to haunt global investors. Auto shares may remain in the spotlight as the 11th Indian Auto Expo kicks off today

US and European Markets

U.S. stocks clawed back from earlier losses to close mixed on Wednesday amid renewed concerns about the debt crisis in Europe.Dow Jones rose 22 points, or 0.2%, according to early tallies. S&P 500 edged up less than 1 point, while Nasdaq lost less than 1 point.

Asian Markets

Today the Asian indices are trading in the green except Nikkei and Shanghai, which are down by 0.6% and 0.3% respectively. Taiwan is trading higher by 0.3% while Strait Times, Kospi amd Hang Seng are up by 0.2% each. SGX Nifty is trading lower by 3 points.

Currencies

The Indian rupee ended higher for the second straight session on Wednesday after trading in a narrow range, on dollar sales by some foreign banks, although a retreat in the euro and a fall in domestic equities capped gains.

Commodities

Among the metals, Copper fell by 0.2% while Aluminujm and Nickel gained 1.7% and 1.4% respectively. Zinc rose by 0.7%.Oil for February delivery fell 38 cents to $102.58 a barrel. Gold futures for February delivery rose $12.70 to $1,613.20 an ounce.

Key events to watch for today

India - WPI Data y-o-y change

Outlook

Today, the Indian market is likely to open on a flat to positive note and later trade in a range. Support on Nifty is at 4,720 while resistance is at 4,800-4,840 levels. Among the sectoral indices, Capital Goods could do well.
Sources- HDFC SECURITY, RH Morning Report

Slow run rate would now ki!!

2012-01-05T10:37:00.000+05:30

The days’ progress is now looking like it will kill the momentum. Barring the sporadic swings in isolated stocks such as Engineer’s India which was up whopping 10% at peak today, lost the fizz post the market weakness and finally closed up around only 3.4%. The mid-caps are now turning into ‘MAD CAPS’ running helter skelter, with no really direction; and it is extremely difficult to put your hands on any specific bunch or sectors which would stand out.

For now it is too early to tell whether January 2012 would turn out to be solidly up or precariously down, however, that the momentum could be up or down would be decided in the middle over’s of the innings. For now it is time to nudge the days and pick up and be ready for the earnings season which is up on us in less than 10 days.

Will keep it short for now. The market closed down after two days of strength, and thankfully losing only 0.33%, some consolation. The tax season has started and we just hope that ELSS schemes (those dreaded ones) should marginally impact the market. Wishful thinking? Maybe.

Sleep tight.!!!

Second ball Six!

2012-01-04T18:18:00.000+05:30

Imagine a T20 match between India and Australia and after having conceded horrendous amount of runs in the first inning of the match to Aussies, we come into bat and in the first over first ball we are off to a two run start and on the second ball of the innings Shewag hits a six. There are only two emotions that a cricket fans has, either he continues this way and the match would be over in the 16th over, or this guy would do a hara kiri and lose it in the next ball.

Now replace the cricket enthusiast with an investor. With horrendous first innings in 2011 now we are kind of getting a good start; but we must remember that 2 balls is not the innings but there are another 118 balls to be bowled. So any enthusiasm with the kind of performance since the beginning of year 2012 (essentially two trading days) must translate into a few weeks and then a few months to make any meaningful returns or match of the situation.

Today’s session was really kind of redemption of the really badly beaten folks, must I say. The likes of infra, realty and to an extent financial institutions stole the show. There was not big evidence of across the board buying. Also, as expected the volumes are yet to pick up in any meaningful manner. So what we could be seeing is essentially the nibblers or the dime pickers trying to salvage some money from the wreckage. But often one does find a lot of good stuff in leftover of hurricane or war torn zone.

Not that we have really seen one, but it just appears to be so, or made out to be.

In closing, I would now really see if this initial momentum of a couple of days translates into couple of weeks and then the whole of January 2012. If that does happen, then indeed we are really setting up for a match.

Morning Be!!.....Indian stock indices struggling for direction in early morning trade

2012-01-04T10:09:00.000+05:30

Indian Markets

The frontline Indian stock indices appear to be struggling for direction in early morning trade after opening slightly positive. The BSE Sensex and the NSE Nifty are trading just in the red, or almost unchanged after advancing smartly in the previous two sessions. At the same time, the broader indices seem to be holding on to modest gains, resulting in a positive market breadth.

The Small-Cap and Mid-cap index was trading flat.

Consumer Durables, Oil and Gas, Power, PSU and IT indices are the gainers.

FMCG, Bankex, HC, Metal, Auto, Realty indices are the losers.

US and European Markets

U.S. stocks rallied on Tuesday, kicking off the new year on a high note, as investors welcomed upbeat reports on economic activity around the world. Dow Jones jumped 180 points, or 1.5%, to end at 12,397. S&P 500 gained 19 points, or 1.5%, to 1,277. Nasdaq added 43 points, or 1.7%, to 2,649. The gains came after reports on manufacturing growth in China and India came in better than expected over the weekend. On Tuesday, a report showed U.S. manufacturing activity grew at a faster rate in December.

European stocks also rose. Britain's FTSE 100 added 2%, DAX in Germany added 1.5% and France's CAC 40 gained 0.4%.

Asian Markets

Today the Asian indices are trading in the green except Shanghai and Kospi, which are down by 0.3% and 0.1% respectively. Nikkei is trading higher by 1.2% while Strait Times is up 0.3%. Hang Seng and Taiwan are up by 0.2% each. Asian stocks are up, as investor risk appetite returned after upbeat U.S. and European economic data boosted global shares and commodities and hopes for improved growth outlook grew despite worries over the euro zone debt crisis. SGX Nifty is trading higher by 2 points.

Currencies

Snapping its three session losing string, the rupee today gained 9 paise to close at 53.21/22 against the dollar amid a strong rally in local equities and fresh dollar selling by exporters.

Commodities

Among the metals, Aluminium gained the most (2.1%) while Copper rose by 1.5%. Nickel and Zinc ended higher by 0.9% and 0.3% respectively. Oil for February delivery added $4.20, or 4.2%, to $103.03 a barrel. Gold futures for February delivery rose $33.70 to end at $1,600.50 an ounce.

Outlook

Today, the Indian market is likely to open in the green on the back of positive global cues and inch up further during the day. Among the sectoral indices, Banking and Oil & Gas stocks could do well.

Source- HDFCSEC, Rh morning market update

Morning Bell !!..........Sensex jumps 247 point on stronger global cues

2012-01-03T10:15:00.000+05:30

Indian Markets

The good tidings of the new year continue in to the second trading session with the main stock indices extending gains from the previous session on the back of encouraging data on the manufacturing sector from across the globe. Market breadth is healthy and India VIX fell as much as 4%.

Infosys, Wipro, Bajaj Auto, DRREDDY, Maruti, L&T, ICICI Bank, HDFC, Ranbaxy, Tata Steel, DLF, BHEL, Tata Power, Tata Motors, SBI, HUL were among the notable leaders in the Sensex and the Nifty.

M&M, BPCL, Sesa Goa were among the notable losers in the Sensex and the Nifty.

The BSE Small-Cap and BSE Mid-Cap index was trading flat.

Metal, Bankex, Realty, Power, PSU, HC, Auto, FMCG, Oil and Gas, IT indices are the gainers.

Asian Markets

Today the Asian indices are trading in the green with Kospi and Shanghai trading higher by 2.1% and 1.9% respectively. Taiwan is up by 1.3%. SGX Nifty is trading higher by 43 points.

Currencies

The Indian Rupee on Monday lost 20 paise to the Dollar to close at a fresh two-week low of 53.30/31, ending the first day of trading in the new year on a subdued note. Increased demand for the dollar from importers and concerns over the government’s widening fiscal deficit weighed on the sentiment.

Outlook

Today, the Indian market is likely to open in the green on the back of positive global cues and inch up further during the day. Among the sectoral indices, Capital Goods, IT and Oil & Gas stocks could do well while Auto stocks could underperform.

Source- Rh Morning market update, HDFCSEC

On a positive note!

2012-01-02T17:20:00.000+05:30

At the outset; I would want to wish each one of you a Healthy, fun filled, financial rewarding (very important) and joyous 2012 and beyond.

The market ended today on a positive note and this could have an important bearing on what lies on the year ahead. For one, I believe that thinking intuitively should come very naturally, yet it, like art is never mastered. Also, though the fundamentals of logic and intuitive thinking are very easy to understand, they are extremely difficult to put to practice. Remember, even ace swimmers do panic when put in situations which they have not witnessed before and drown.

Staying calm, staying focused and working more hard (as opposed to working hardly) when times are tough is the only way to tide over the extra-ordinary circumstances that present us.

The implications of positive markets for today might not mean much in terms of forecasting what lay ahead for the entire 200+ trading days ahead; however it does have bearing in the light of what has happened over the past 52 weeks of trading we have seen. I must admit that looking behind over several 52 week period back to 2008, which has been a longish enough period the fatigue factor has indeed set-in, in the minds of the investors.

Therein lies the opportunity, people (often seasoned) drop guard in these times. They resign to the fact that we are in for an extended period of bad phase and abandon all hope. There is where opportunity lies. Ultimately, life is a matter of seeking arbitrage. One who has spotted a wide gap, whether it be financial, spiritual or material; he would make a killing.

Finally, the part where all you guys would push me to; to forecast what lay ahead. I would stick my neck out and come out strong in favour of equities for the year 2012. While I do not foresee runaway bull rally from the word go; I would think that we will end 2012 with respectable returns for the equities markets. This means that for people who could not make money in 2011, this is an excellent time to make it. For those waiting to enter, the time could not have been better.

Get in, sit back and enjoy the ride.

Morning Bell !!!....The Indian markets opened the first trading session of 2012

2012-01-02T10:24:00.000+05:30

Indian Markets

The Indian markets opened the first trading session of 2012 on a rather subdued note before climbing marginally in early morning trade. The Advance-Decline ratio on the BSE is favorable for the bulls so far as the broader indices are keeping pace with their Large-Cap peers. Overall, the undertone remains cautious amid persistent challenges confronting the domestic as well as global economy.

The BSE Mid-Cap and Small-Cap index was trading flat. Auto, Consumer Goods, Metal, PSU, Bankex,HC, Power indices are the gainers. Realty, IT and FMCG indices are the losers.

RIL, ICICI Bank, L&T, M&M, Coal India, Bharti Airtel, BHEL, RCOM, Maruti,ONGC,Sterlite were among the notable leaders in the Sensex and the Nifty.

Infosys, DLF, Tata Steel, Tata Power, HUL, NTPC, Sun Pharma,HDFC Bank, HDFC, were among the notable losers in the Sensex and the Nifty.

US and European Markets

Stocks finished little changed on Friday. Dow Jones fell 69 points, or 0.6%. The S&P 500 dropped 5 points, or 0.4%, and Nasdaq fell 9 points, or 0.3%. At its peak in April, S&P had climbed more than 8%. Dow, meanwhile, rose 5.5% for the year, and Nasdaq lost 1.8%.

European stock markets ended in the green on the last day of the year. Britain's FTSE 100 finished up 0.1%, Germany's DAX edged up 0.9% and France's CAC 40 rose 0.4%. But for the year dominated by Europe's debt crisis, all three indexes ended in the red.

Asian Markets

Today the Asian indices are trading in the red except Shanghai, which is up 1.2%. Taiwan and Kospi are down by 0.9% and 0.3% respectively. SGX Nifty is trading higher by 14 points.

Currencies

The Indian rupee appreciated by 0.2% on Friday vs the Dollar.

Commodities

Among the metals, Copper and Nickel gained 2.5% and 1.7% respectively. Zinc ended higher by 1.4% while Aluminium rose by 0.4%. Oil for February delivery fell 82 cents to settle at $98.83 a barrel. Crude prices rose more than 8% in 2011, marking the third consecutive years of increases. Gold futures for February delivery added $25.90, or 1.7%, to settle at $1,566.80 an ounce.

Key events to watch for today

India - HSBC India manufacturing PMI

Outlook

Today, the Indian market is likely to open in the green and take cues from European markets. Among the sectoral indices, Metal stocks could outperform.

Source- RH Morning market update, HDFC SEC

Closing Be!! .... fourth consecutive negative daily close for the Sensex/Nifty

2011-12-30T18:34:00.000+05:30

Markets slide lower

Markets began the new Jan derivative series on a weak note. The main indices were dragged lower by Reliance as it touched a new 52-week low. It was the fourth consecutive negative daily close for the Sensex/Nifty.

Statistics

While the BSE Sensex finally closed 89.01pts or 0.57% lower at 15,454.92, the Nifty lost 21.95pts or 0.47% to close at 4,624.3. Broad market indices however ended higher as the BSE Mid Cap and Small Cap indices gained 0.31% and 0.09% respectively. Market breadth was negative as the A/D ratio was 0.91:1 on the BSE. NSE cash turnover was Rs.6,685crs. Vs. Rs.8,926crs. in the previous session.

Sectoral and Stock movers

The sectoral indices ended with a mixed bag. While the top gainers were the BSE Healthcare and IT indices, the top losers were the BSE Oil and Gas, Realty, Bankex and Metal indices. The top gainers from the BSE 30 were Infy, Coal India and BHEL. The top losers were Reliance, Jindal Steel, DLF and Tata Steel.

Foreign markets

Major European markets like the CAC ( 0.19%) and DAX ( 0.32%) are trading higher at 16:28 IST. The FTSE is however trading lower (-0.18%).

Major Asian markets have closed on a mixed note. While the Nikkei (0.67%) and Hang Seng ( 0.2%) have ended higher, the Straits (-1.0%) and Taiwan (-0.04%) indices have ended lower.

Way forward

With the markets drifting down further for the fourth consecutive session, immediate lows to watch are now at 4602. A close below these supports could see the Nifty heading towards the next major lows of 4531. On the upside, immediate resistance is at 4688.

Sources-HDFC SEC

Morning Bell !!!.....The Sensex rebounded after a fall in previous three sessions

2011-12-30T10:39:00.000+05:30

Indian Markets

Positive global cues have helped the main Indian stock indices open with a positive bias on the last trading session of what has been a tumultuous year for the domestic markets.

However, there is no certainty on whether the early morning gains could be sustained throughout the day as most of the headwinds that weighed on the markets have not been dealt with completely. Investors will continue to be cautious in the early part of 2012.

The outcome of state elections in Uttar Pradesh could have a significant bearing on policy formulations by UPA II, including the Union Budget. It might also change some political and strategic equations at the Centre. So, all eyes will be fixed on the UP elections in the days and weeks to come.

Talking of politics, USA, the world's largest economy, will also hold Presidential elections later in 2012. A leadership change is also in the offing in China. Elections are scheduled in Russia, Iran, Egypt, France, Greece and South Korea among others.

The Lokpal Bill could not clear the Rajya Sabha due to resistance from several parties, including Trinamool Congress. The passage of the Bill will be in a limbo till the next session. The Lok Sabha was adjourned sine die while the Rajya Sabha ended abruptly at the stroke of midnight without the House taking a vote on the Lokpal Bill.

State-run oil companies are mulling a hike in petrol prices. The proposed move may still be nixed by the Government in view of the upcoming state polls.

US and European Markets

U.S. stocks rose on Thursday in a thinly-traded session as investors focused on signs of strength in the economy before calling it a year. Dow Jones rose 136 points, or 1.1%, to end at 12,287. S&P 500 added 13 points, or 1.1%, to 1,263. Nasdaq gained 24 points, or 0.9%, to 2,614.

European stock markets closed higher Thursday in thin trading conditions, helped by gains for Wall Street and after an Italian debt auction was taken in stride. Britain's FTSE 100 added 0.8%, DAX in Germany rose 0.9% and France's CAC 40 rose 1.1%.

Asian Markets

Today all the Asian indices are trading in the green except Strit Times, which is down by 0.3%. Shanghai and Hang Seng are trading higher by 1% and 0.4% respectively. Nikkei and Taiwan are up 0.3% and 0.1% respectively. SGX Nifty is trading higher by 36.5 points.

Currencies

The Indian rupee ended steady on Thursday vs the Dollar, recovering from the day's lows on suspected central bank intervention and dollar-selling by nationalised banks for a second day in a row.

Commodities

Among the metals, Nickel and Copper lost 2.5% and 1.9% respectively. Zinc and Aluminium fell by 0.5% and 0.4% respectively. Oil for February delivery rose 31 cents to $99.05 a barrel. Gold futures for February delivery fell $23.20 to $1,540.90 an ounce. Gold prices have softened due to a stronger dollar.

Key events to watch for today

India - CPI Industrial Workers data

US - Fed Balance Sheet

China - PMI Manufacturing Index

Italy - PPI data

Outlook

Today, the Indian market is likely to open in the green following strong global cues and could trade in a range through the day. Support on Nifty is at 4,600-4,540 while resistance is at 4,720-4,800. Among the sectoral indices, Auto stocks could outperform while Metal stocks look weak.

Sources- RH Morning data, HDFC SEC

Closing Bell !!...Nifty closes below 4,700 on the last derivative expiry of year 2011

2011-12-29T19:59:00.000+05:30

Markets ended lower amidst a volatile trading session on Thursday, weighed down by weak Asian cues early in the day and a depreciating rupee, with index heavyweights Reliance Industries and Infosys leading the fall.

Statistics

While the BSE Sensex finally closed 184 pts or 1.2% lower at 15,544, the Nifty lost 60 pts or 1.3% to close at 4,646. Broad market indices too ended lower as the BSE Mid Cap and Small Cap indices lost 0.4% and 0.7% respectively. Market breadth was negative as the A/D ratio was 0.8:1 on the BSE. NSE cash turnover was Rs.8,926 crs. Vs. Rs.6,218 crs. in the previous session.

Sectoral and Stock movers

Barring the BSE Metals and Healthcare indices, all the sectoral indices ended lower. The top losers were the BSE Oil & Gas, Capital Goods, Realty and Power indices. The top gainers from the BSE 30 were Jindal Steel, SBI, Sterlite Inds and Hindalco Inds. The top losers were Maruti, BHEL, RIL and Tata Power.

Foreign markets

Major European markets like FTSE ( 0.2%) and DAX ( 0.2%) are trading higher at 16:10 IST while CAC is trading marginally lower.

Asian markets like Taiwan (0.3%), Strait Times (0.2%) and Shanghai (0.2%) indices ended higher for the day. However, Hang Seng and Nikkei lost 0.7% and 0.3% respectively.

Way forward

With the Nifty breaking an important support level of 4,700 today, we expect the downtrend to continue.

Source- hdfcsec

Morning Bell !!!....The Sensex opened with 0.5% gap down on expiry day, tracking concerns in the euro zone

2011-12-29T10:26:00.001+05:30

Indian Markets

Indian Equity Indices trembled in the early morning trade.

ONGC, DRREDDY, RPower, HDFC Bank, Coal India, ITC were among the notable leaders in the Sensex and the Nifty.

Infosys, Wipro, ICICI Bank, DLF, Ranbaxy, L&T, Maruti Suzuki, TCS, SBI, Sun Pharma,RCOM, Tata Steel, Tata Power, Bajaj Auto, were among the notable losers in the Sensex and the Nifty.

US and European Markets

Stocks closed down more than 1% Wednesday, as investors continued to fret over how Europe could solve its debt troubles in 2012. Selling intensified ahead of the close. Dow Jones closed down 140 points, or 1.1%. S&P 500 slid 16 points, or 1.3%. Nasdaq lost 35 points, or 1.3%.

European markets were down today, influenced by a negative day on Wall Street. Indexes fell mainly due to banking sector shares affected by the previous day's record overnight deposits with the ECB, indicating mistrust between banks, now reluctant to use the inter-bank market.Britain's FTSE 100 eased 0.1%, the DAX in Germany slumped 2% and France's CAC 40 lost 1%.

Asian Markets

Today all the Asian indices are trading in the red except Shanghai, which is up marginally. Hang Seng and Nikkei are trading lower by 1% and 0.8% respectively. Strait Times and Kospi are down by 0.3% each while Taiwan is down 0.5%.SGX Nifty is trading lower by 22.5 points.

Currencies

The Indian Rupee ended off lows on Wednesday against the US Dollar, recovering most losses after suspected RBI intervention, but global risk aversion meant the Indian currency would remain under pressure in the near term, dealers said.

Commodities

Among the metals, Zinc and Nickel lost 1.9% and 1.8% respectively. Aluminium and Copper ended lower by 1.1% each. Oil prices for February delivery jumped 1.5% after a top Iranian official warned that the nation could block the Strait of Hormuz, a key transit point for oil exports from the Middle East. Gold futures for February delivery fell $31.40 to $1,564.10 an ounce.

Key events to watch for today

India - WPI (Y-o-Y change)

US - Jobless Claims, Pending Home Sales Index, EIA Petroleum Status Report

Germany - CPI

Outlook

Today, the Indian market is likely to open in the red following weak global cues and could witness volatility on account of derivatives expiry. Among the sectoral indices, Auto, Capital Goods and Banking stocks could underperform.

Sources- HDFC SEC,RH morning market

Morning Bell !!!......The key Indian equity indices have dipped in early morning trade

2011-12-28T10:57:00.000+05:30

Indian Market

The key Indian equity indices have dipped in early morning trade with the BSE Sensex and the NSE Nifty struggling for direction amid no decisive clues from the overseas markets.

As far as domestic economy is concerned, things are looking bleak and will take time to turn around. FII flows will remain muted till there are signs of concrete action on the policy front.

Infosys, Tata Motors, HDFC, Tata Power,Hero MotoCorp,RCOM, TCS, HUL, NTPC, were among the notable leaders in the Sensex and the Nifty.

DLF, ICICI Bank, Ranbaxy, Axis Bank, HCL Tech, Tata Steel, BHEL, SBI, ONGC, L&T, were among the notable losers in the Sensex and the Nifty.

Power, Auto and IT index are the gainers.

FMCG, PSU, Metal, Realty, Consumer Goods,Bankex, Consumer Durables indices are the losers.

Market breadth is even with equal number of shares rising and falling on the BSE. Most sectoral indices are trading in the red, led by Banking and Capital Goods indices. Realty, Consumer Durables, PSU, Metals and Pharma indices are down anywhere between 0.5% and 1%. The remaining sectoral indices are more or less subdued.

Most Asian markets are down today with many of them returning to action after extended Christmas holidays. Indices in China and Hong Kong are down ~0.5% each. The S&P/ASX 200 index in Australia has lost 1%. The Nikkei in Japan was more or less unchanged

US Market

U.S. stocks were little changed; following the longest rally since September, as better‐than‐estimated consumer confidence data overshadowed a decline in home prices and concern about Europe’s debt crisis.

Asian Market

Asian stocks fell for a second day amid slow trading, with the regional benchmark index headed for the worst year since 2008, after a report showed U.S. housing prices fell, damping the earnings outlook for Asia’s exporters.

Commodities:

Oil traded near the highest level in six weeks after Iran threatened to block crude transportation through the Strait of Hormuz, increasing concern that global supplies will be curbed amid shrinking U.S. stockpiles.

Sources- RH morning market

Losing the spring in the step!

2011-12-27T17:53:00.000+05:30

It is that time of the year again; that of lazing, taking a break or an extended holiday and obviously who has boring market and investing on the minds. While talking to existing clients and prospects there was an excitement around what they are planning to do during the year end break than discuss investments. It is obvious therefore that you get along discussing the matter and take it easy with them while giving them time to enjoy and relax. Of course connecting this way and talking about other important things in life is equally important with clients – it goes a long way to build that relationship and facility smoother transactions in the year ahead.

Talking about today session, with the above background in view, looks like nobody’s really interested now that we are in the final over of the year. The match is more or less over, with equities being on the losing side in this game and other players such as Gold, Commodities and debt taking the lead.

The stocks today just hankered up and down basically losing all spring in their step and now appear to be leading a listless existence. All in all, looks like we would have a closing of 2011 over 20% down for the major indices for sure, unless of course we move either sharply higher or lower from current levels; which seem unlikely given that with each passing day this week, more number of people switching off from work.

Time to get listless on serious stuff and get more active on the dance floor.

Morning Bell !!!.....All the Indian Indices trading flat, Market in X'mas mood!!

2011-12-27T10:31:00.001+05:30

Indian Markets

The frontline Indian equity benchmarks are sedate at best in early morning trade, as investors choose to stay on the sidelines with only few trading sessions left in the year. Even the broader indices are subdued, leading to a dull start to the day.

IT, Oil and Gas, HC, Consumer Goods indices are the gainers. Realty, Power, Auto, FMCG, PSU indices are the losers.

Infosys, Wipro, DLF, Tata Power, Sun Pharma, L&T, Tata Power, Reliance Infra, RCOM, Rpower, Jindal Steel were among the notable leaders in the Sensex and the Nifty.

ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, SBI,BHEL Bajaj Auto, Coal India, Cipla, Bharti Airtel, ITC, NTPC were among the notable losers in the Sensex and the Nifty.

The political heat is all set to escalate as the showdown between Team Anna and the Government is likely to continue. Anna Hazare begins his three-day agitation in Mumbai from the MMRDA ground in BKC, Bandra. The Parliament will also resume the winter session to debate the New Lokpal Bill.

Asian Markets

Today all the Asian indices are trading in the red with Shanghai and Kospi trading lower by 0.9% and 0.6% respectively. Nikkei and Taiwan are down 0.5% each while Strait Times is down 0.2%. As per IST 8.15 am SGX Nifty is trading lower by 15 points.

Currencies

The Indian rupee ended stronger in thin trade on Monday as some bets on a further decline in the currency were covered amid improved risk sentiments on positive U.S. jobs and manufacturing data.

Key events to watch for today

US Consumer Confidence Level1 Report

US S&P Case-Shiller HPI

Outlook

Today, the Indian market is likely to open in the red following weak Asian cues and later take cues from the European markets.

Sources- Rh Morning market, HDFCSEC.

Calendar- January 2012 " An All Rounder in your Portfolio"

2011-12-26T17:40:00.000+05:30

Morning Bell !!!!....The main Indian equity benchmarks have opened with a positive bias

2011-12-26T10:34:00.000+05:30

Indian Markets

The main Indian equity benchmarks have opened with a positive bias, extending the advance from last week, amid signs of strength in the US economy and stable Asian markets. Trading volumes across world markets have tapered off lately as market players opt for extended year-end Christmas break.

Trading volumes across world markets have tapered off lately as market players opt for extended year-end Christmas break.

Shares of telecom service providers like Bharti Airtel, Idea Cellular and RCOM have risen after the TDSAT restraint the DoT from canceling the inter-circle 3G roaming agreements between the mobile operators.

Shares of GVK Power & Infra have jumped after a business daily reported that Singapore's Changhi Airport was likely to buy a 26% stake in GVK’s airports business.

US and European Markets

U.S. Investors brought holiday cheer to the stock markets pushing the S&P 500 back into positive territory for 2011 and the Dow up 6% for the year. On a light trading day ahead of the holiday weekend, investors scooped up stocks after economic reports released Friday morning continue to provide glimmers of hope for the U.S. economy with better-than-expected readings on personal spending, income and housing released Friday morning.

Dow Jones added 124 points, or 1% Friday. The index is up 3.6% for the week and 6.1% for year. S&P 500 rose 11 points, or 0.9% Friday, adding 3.7 for the week and 0.6% for the year. Nasdaq moved 19 points higher, or 0.7%, and despite moving up 2.7% this week, it's still down 1.3% this year.

Asian Markets

Today, all the Asian indices are trading in the red except Nikkei, which is trading higher by 1.1%. Shanghai and Kospi are down by 0.3% and 0.5% respectively. Taiwan is down 0.1%.As of IST 8.45 am today, SGX Nifty is trading higher by 6 points.

Currencies

The rupee remained on a weaker footing against the US dollar, as local demand for dollars remained strong.

Key events to watch for today

India - IIP Core (Y-o-Y Chg)

Outlook for Today

Today, we expect the Indian Markets to open in the green on the back of positive global cues and trade sideways.

Source- RH morning market update, HDFC SECURITY

Morning Bell!!!....Immediate support for Nifty is at 4650, while the resistance is at 4800.

2011-12-23T10:28:00.000+05:30

Indian Markets

The main Indian equity benchmarks have opened with a positive bias, extending the gains to a third successive session, as investors welcome a series of upbeat data on the US economy and stability in European markets. Asian markets too are trading mostly up today, tracking overnight gains on Wall Street and Europe.

RIL, Wipro, DLF, L&T, BHEL, Tata Power, Maruti Suzki, Tata Motors, NTPC, Coal India, IDFC, HDFC Bank, Tata Steel, were among the notable leaders in the Sensex and the Nifty.

Infosys, Ranbaxy, TCS, ICICI Bank, Sun Pharma, Hero MotoCorp, were among the notable losers in the Sensex and the Nifty.

US and European Markets

U.S. stocks finished a quiet session higher on Thursday, after a stronger-than-expected reading on unemployment boosted investor optimism. The Dow Jones industrial average climbed 62 points, or 0.5%, the S&P 500 rose 10 points, or 0.8%, and the Nasdaq ticked up 21 points, or 0.8%.

Asian Markets

Today, all the Asian indices are trading in the green with Shanghai & Hang Seng trading higher by 0.3% & 1% respectively. Kospi & Strait times are up by 1% & 0.3% respectively, while Taiwan is trading higher by 1.8%.As of IST 8.50 am today, SGX Nifty is trading higher by 19 points.

Currencies

The rupee depreciated against the USD by 0.2% on Thursday on renewed dollar demand from importers and some banks despite firm local equity markets.

Commodities

Among the metals, Aluminium, Copper & Nickel ended higher by 0.3%, 1.3% & 1.8% respectively, while Zinc fell by 0.5%.Oil for February delivery rose 86 cents to $99.53 a barrel. Gold futures for February delivery dropped $3 to settle at $1,610.60 an ounce.

Key events to watch for today

India - Forex Reserves & WMA (ways and means advance) to central & state governments.

Italy - ISAE Consumer Confidence (Level)

France - PPI (M-o-M & Y-o-Y)

US - Personal Income & Outlays, Durable goods orders, new home sales, money supply & Fed Balance Sheet.

Outlook for Today

Today, we expect the Indian Markets to open in the green on the back of positive global cues & trade in a range with positive bias throughout the session. Immediate support for Nifty is at 4650, while the resistance is at 4800.

Sources- RH morning update, hdfcsec,

Listless at best!

2011-12-23T10:17:00.000+05:30

Today’s market was listless at best. There was no sense of purpose in the way stocks moved. It wanted to get ahead and went up; while it had opened like it wanted to go deep down. I am calling it listless though volatile could also be the word used, since volume fatigue seems to have set in. Also, the ones that have sunk in deep have seem to settled there accepting the battering as fate. The ones that seem to go up higher also do not show any promise. RIL for one is a case in point. Many BUY recommendations, positive news flow and above all looks well positioned to move up. Fundamentally and technically. However, on a daily basis the movement appears not to be very convincing, appears completely tentative to touch back to INR700 levels at the drop of the hat.

That only serves to tell, that it is only about sentiment for the moment. It would not take long for this thing to reverse therefore. Then, RIL moving smartly to INR900 would appear a cakewalk. Just that at this moment the time is just not perfect. RIL was being used only as an example. Take any stock, of the index which has steady fundamental outlook in the medium term, the same logic would apply.

And yes this is not limited to index stocks alone.

Finally, we enter the last week of 2011 next week, where the world would slow down materially; and would go about merry making. On the other side of December 31, 2011 lies hope and of course the earnings season for Q3 for us. Will that change course for the battered markets? It could be 50:50.

Let’s wait and watch. For now, Christmas is upon us. Season to be Merry and season to be Happy for what GOD has bestowed upon us. Will wish one and all today, tomorrow and on Christmas eve – A fun filled season ahead. GOD Bless.

Morning Bell !!!.....The undertone is negative due to deteriorating fundamentals of the Indian economy

2011-12-22T11:22:00.000+05:30

Indian Markets

The frontline Indian equity indices have lost ground in the opening trade, reversing some of the big gains registered in the preceding session.

The undertone is negative due to weak global markets and persistent concerns about deteriorating fundamentals of the Indian economy. The rupee, which advanced yesterday, is also down today versus the US dollar. The euro has softened after the ECB's maiden three-year lending program failed to alleviate concerns about the region's debt crisis.

ONGC, NTPC, HUL, Tata Power, Siemens, ITC were among the notable leaders in the Sensex and the Nifty. where as Infosys, ICICI Bank, Wipro, L&T, Rpower, DLF, BHEL, TCS, Tata Steel, SBI, were among the notable losers in the Sensex and the Nifty.

US and European Markets

The Dow and S&P 500 ended the day barely in positive territory on Wednesday, after falling nearly 1% on fears over the health of European banks and worse-than-expected readings on the housing market continued to trouble the markets. The Nasdaq trimmed some of the day's losses, but closed down 1% after most software stocks dropped dramatically following Oracle's surprisingly weak quarterly earnings released Tuesday night. The Dow Jones industrial average closed up 4 points, or 0.03%; while the S&P 500 added 2 points, or 0.2%. Competitors including Fortinet. TIBCO Software, and Teradata dropped between 5.5% and 7%.

Asian Markets

Today, all the Asian indices are trading in the red with Shanghai & Hang Seng trading lower by 1.4% & 0.7% respectively. Nikkei & Strait times are down by 0.6% & 0.3% respectively, while Kospi & Taiwan are trading lower by 0.4% & 0.1% respectively. As of IST 8.45 am, SGX Nifty is trading lower today by 42.5 points.

Currencies

The rupee appreciated against the USD by 0.7% on Wednesday to close at a more than one-week high following a sharp rebound in the local equities. Fresh dollar selling by exporters and some banks amid some weakness in dollar overseas also aided the rupee rise.

Key events to watch for today

India - WPI Index (Primary, Food, Non-Food Articles and Fuel & Power)

Italy - Retail Sales

UK - GDP

US - Jobless Claims, Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Level), GDP, Consumer Sentiment Index, FHFA House Price Index

Outlook for Today

Today, we expect the Indian Markets to open lower following weak global cues.Latest food inflation data is due today but may not have any material impact on the overall sentiment, which is pretty fragile. However, later during the day, it could find support at lower levels and make an attempt to recover some of its losses. Immediate support for Nifty is at 4650, while the resistance is at 4750.

Source- rh morning market,HDFCSEC Report

Late surge and a flight to quality!

2011-12-21T16:20:00.000+05:30

The NIFTY Index today move sharply upwards and did not come as a surprise. After all the battering that the index received through the whole of December 2011, while the entire of Asia was doing fine was more than perplexing even with all the home-grown problems. So bounce it did, and the question that every one would ask could be; will it head up all the way to 5000 levels and beyond. Well, looks like Pt. 5000 could be effortless, however, could get a little difficult in the interim as the selling at every higher point would accentuate and exiters would spoil the party.

That said, I would imagine that the line of thought would not change, and we should continue to nibble away meaningfully at these levels by investing bit by bit. Just like we SIP the hot coffee, SIP away your blues of the market by starting as many SIP’s as possible for your clients. I am certain that around the same time next year, you could be a proud RM/WM to flaunt the statement to your client.

Coming back to market performance, the pattern was very typical too; all the action on the upside was limited to large caps, which means the out of favor mid/small caps are continuing to be just that; out of favor. My sense is that they would continue to remain out of favor until they demonstrate the resilience through quarterly results. Thankfully our set of mid/small companies are extremely ‘jugaadu’ and they would come out of this ruckus in flying colors. So it means that this out of favorness would be extended a while but is not a permanent feature.

We are now on the last legs of the year 2011. Then again it would bring in all the brand new (doomsday) year 2012. Just like our boss who is a contrarian to the core and has been successful with this philosophy; don’t be surprised if 2012 is a contrarian year. People have labeled it the year of Doom – and this would turn out to be the trump year. Remember that 2011 was labeled as the turn around year 12 months ago and turned out to be dud.

Strange are the ways. As they say – never predict, especially about the future.

Morning Bell !!!!.....After long time market in green mood

2011-12-21T10:51:00.000+05:30

Indian Markets

The key Indian equity benchmarks have opened with a big gap, tracking overnight rally in the US and European markets, as investors cheer upbeat reports on the US and European economies. Most other Asian markets are also up smartly today while the Rupee has also advanced marginally versus the US dollar.

BANKEX, Consumer Goods, Consumer Durables, Power, Realty, Auto, Oil and Gas, PSU, IT, FMCG indices are the gainers. RIL, Infosys, Wipro, Coal India, DLF, Axis Bank, SBI, Tata Motors, NTPC, Ranbaxy, Bajaj Auto, ITC, Maruti Suzuki, Sterlite Inds,Tata Steel, Mahindra & Mahindra were among the notable leaders in the Sensex and the Nifty. HCLTECH, HEROMOTOCO were among the notable losers in the Sensex and the Nifty.

US and European Markets

U.S. stocks surged on Tuesday as concerns about the European debt crisis eased and investors welcomed signs of strength in the U.S. housing market. Dow Jones rose 337 points, or 2.9%, to end at 12,103. S&P 500 jumped 36 points, or 3%, to 1,241. Nasdaq gained 80 points, or 3.2%, to 2,604.

European stock markets ended with strong gains Tuesday, boosted by upbeat news on the German economy and sharply lower borrowing costs for Spain. Britain's FTSE 100 rose 1%, while DAX in Germany jumped 3.1% and France's CAC 40 rose 2.7%.

Asian Markets

Today, all the Asian indices are trading in the green with Taiwan up the most (3.9%). Kospi and Hang Seng are trading higher by 2.7% and 1.8% respectively. Kospi and Nikkei are up 1.5% and 1.4% respectively. Shanghai is up 0.4%. As of IST 8.15 am, SGX Nifty is trading higher today by 83 points.

Currencies

The rupee reversed all intraday gains to close steady on Tuesday as traders pared some long-dollar positions after RBI deputy governor said more steps would be taken, if needed, to bring stability to the domestic forex market.

Commodities

Among the metals, Zinc fell by 0.1% while Aluminum gained 1.5%. Nickel rose by 1.1% while Copper ended marginally in the green. Oil for January delivery rose $3.29 to end at $97.17 a barrel. Gold futures for February delivery rose $20.90 to settle at $1,617.60 an ounce.

Key events to watch for today

Italy GDP

US EIA Petroleum Status Report

US Existing Home Sales

Outlook for Today

Today, we expect the Indian Markets to open in the green and inch up further during the day. Among the sectoral indices, Oil & Gas and IT stocks could outperform.

Sources- HDFCSEC, RH Morning market update

Urgently required – rare M+ blood group!

2011-12-20T17:14:00.000+05:30

When Santa comes to town this weekend, I would imagine we would not recognize him, since he wears red suit and there is blood all over the street and in news and in the mood. So maybe he should come down to India at least in a green suit; for a change.

The markets looks like have caught a severe form of e-coli virus infection and is dehydrating everyday. We go from one level to another and for straight sessions in December 2011 we are down to a level where every one is looking like lost appetite to buy anything. Blue chip have transformed into Blue cheaps. How else would you imagine, LT @ 975 (triple digits) and lesser known construction companies such as HCC @ 16INR. With prices so cheap there is no need to look at the mid/small cap names at all. BTW, who wants to look at names which are falling like 8-10% on a single day.

For the entire 2011 to date; we are now down around 26% and that is amongst the worst performing asset class across Asia.

Today’s fall was worrisome for couple of points; nothing new happened however, Asia was meaningfully up and so is EU region despite all the crap that is going on. This then looks like the world telling us that the Indian economy is not worth the attractive opportunity the way insiders present it to be. Could be true but only partly, according to me. My sense is that at some point the same points such as regions that have done well don’t deserve to be rated that much higher and there is great value in India. This argument coming into play is likely to become a reality sooner than later if we continue to head south.

For the moment, the market requires blood, urgently and as we all know, M+ is a rare group only with a few people, excluding all politicians.

Morning Bell !!!............Swelling fiscal deficit, widening current account gap, high interest rates, slowing economy and policy inaction are forcing foreign investors to commit less to India

2011-12-20T10:40:00.000+05:30

Indian Markets

The frontline Indian indices managed to pull back from lows struck on Monday while the volatile rupee closed above the 53-per-dollar mark. The start today was a better one as most Asian markets are trading in the positive zone. Swelling fiscal deficit, widening current account gap, high interest rates, slowing economy and policy inaction are forcing foreign investors to commit less to India. Lingering worries over the euro area debt crisis continue to play spoilsport as well.

It is tough to find many optimists willing to bet their money on Indian equities at the moment. Further downside is not ruled out as buying support is dwindling. Scary levels on the frontline indices are being bandied about. Things could improve a bit over the medium to long term, provided the Government signals and/or implements a few important steps to lift the pall of gloom.

Although the Nifty ended on a negative note, a hammer on Monday’s trading session has a potential to turn into a trend reversal pattern, provided it is followed by a higher opening. On the upside, 4675 could turn out to be an important resistance on a closing basis. Any move above the same would negate a ‘Head and shoulder’ pattern, paving the way for a relief rally. Till then, the mood is likely to remain cautious.

US and European Markets

U.S. stocks closed sharply lower on Monday as bank shares took a beating amid fresh concerns about the debt crisis in Europe. Dow Jones fell 100 points, or 0.8%, to end at 11,766. S&P 500 sank 14 points, or 1.2%, to 1,205. Nasdaq slid 32 points, or 1.2%, to 2,523.

European stocks closed mostly lower on Monday, giving up gains as markets waited on talks between EU finance ministers and kept a wary eye on the Far East after the death of North Korea's Kim Jong-Il. Britain's FTSE 100 eased 0.4%, DAX in Germany slid 0.5% and France's CAC 40 closed little changed.

Currencies

The rupee pulled back from the day's low on Monday buoyed by dollar sales from some local companies, although weakness in local equities on signs of cooling domestic growth weighed.

Commodities

Among the metals, Nickel gained 1.6% while Aluminium lost 2.4%. Copper and Zinc fell by 0.8% and 0.9% respectively.Oil for January delivery rose 58 cents to $94.11 a barrel. Gold futures for February delivery fell $4.90 to $1,593.00 an ounce.

Key events to watch for today

India - CPI

Germany - PPI

US - Redbook

Japan - Bank of Japan announcement

Outlook for Today

Today, we expect the Indian Markets to open in the green and inch up further during the day. Support on Nifty is at 4,539 while resistance is 4,650. Among the sectoral indices, Auto stocks could outperform.

Source- Rh Morning market update, HDFC Security

Morning Bell !!!!.....SENSEX dives 250 points,Nifty fell 84 points to 4,567.80

2011-12-19T10:49:00.000+05:30

Indian Markets

The Sensex extended the sell-off in the early trade, falling over 264 points while the Nifty was slipping towards the 4550 level. The Indian rupee too depreciated by 45 paise to 53.15 a dollar; in the last week it appreciated sharply from a record low of 54.29 after RBI came out with some measures to minimise the speculation. Banks, capital goods, metals and technology stocks were also beaten down. The Sensex was quoting at 15227.40. Meanwhile, the Nifty fell 84 points to 4,567.80 led by fall in 43 stocks

US and European Markets

Stocks ended Friday mixed after a roller-coaster week in which all three indexes each lost more than 2.5%. After moving up more than 1% in the first hour of trading, stocks steadily retreated. Dow Jones closed the day down 2 points, or 0.02%. S&P 500 moved up 4 points, or 0.3%. Nasdaq increased 15 points, or 0.6%.

European stocks pulled back on Friday, adding to the fourth weekly loss in the past five. Britain's FTSE 100 ticked down 0.3% while DAX in Germany edged down 0.5%. France's CAC 40 shed 0.9%.

Asian Markets

Today, all the Asian indices are trading in the red with Kospi and Hang Seng trading lower by 2.5% and 1.9% respectively. Shanghai and Taiwan are down by 1.8% each while Strait Times is down 1.5%. Nikkei is down by 0.8%. As of IST 8.15 am, SGX Nifty is trading lower today by 41 points.

Currencies

USD had appreciated marginally against the Euro before France and Spain sell bills this week amid concern the currency blocs second- and fourth- largest economies will have their credit rating cuts. The 17-nation euro traded near a two-month low versus the yen after Fitch Ratings lowered its outlook for France’s credit ranking and said it may cut Spain’s grade.

The Indian rupee surged against the U.S. dollar in a day of wild swings after a central bank move to curb speculative currency bets led to a dramatic drop in volumes on Friday, even as it announced a likely reversal in its monetary policy stance.

Commodities

Among the metals, Nickel and Aluminium gained 1.5% and 1.2% respectively. Copper and Zinc rose by 1% and 0.4% respectively. Oil for January delivery increased 12 cents to $93.99 a barrel. Gold futures for February delivery rose $20.70 to $1,597.90 an ounce.

Key events to watch for today

US Housing Market index

Outlook for Today

Today, we expect the Indian Markets to open in the red in line with global cues and remain lower in the day. Among the sectoral indices, Banking and Auto stocks could underperform.

Sources- HDFCSEC

Weekly Market Wrap- When all hope is lost… hope beckons!

2011-12-17T15:31:00.000+05:30

After rising smartly last week, the week gone by saw the Sensex/Nifty attempting to move higher. They however found resistance at the 17004/5099 levels and slid lower. The selling pressure intensified in the last two sessions of the week as the bears got the upper hand. W-o-W, while the Sensex lost 3.83%, the Nifty lost 3.63% over the same period. Market breadth was negative in two out of the four trading sessions of the week.

Key events

Global Markets

U.S. government reported that the number of people filing for initial unemployment benefits fell to a 9-month low of 381,000 in the latest week. Wholesale inventories for the month of October came in higher-than-expected at 1.6%. U.S. consumer credit rose by $7.7 billion in October, or 3.7% an annual rate, the Federal Reserve said. The trade deficit probably widened in October as a strengthening U.S. economy helped drive up the nation's import bill while exports cooled from a record high. The gap grew to $44 billion from the prior month's $43.1 billion shortfall that was the smallest this year.

European Central Bank took steps to revive the ailing European economy and ease credit conditions for troubled EURO zone banks. But ECB president Mario Draghi offered no indication that he is willing to intervene aggressively in the bond market, stressing that the onus is on European governments to resolve the debt crisis. China's inflation reached a 14-month low and industrial production rose less than forecast, bolstering the case for more stimulus measures to shore up growth in the world's second-largest economy. Japan's economy grew less than the government's initial estimate last quarter as companies reduced investment on concern overseas demand was stalling. Gross domestic product increased at an annualized 5.6 percent in the three months ended Sept. 30.

The European statistics agency, Eurostat, estimated that eurozone economy grew 0.2% in the third quarter.

S&P said it might also cut the AAA rating of Europe's bailout fund. The fund needs that top rating to cheaply raise money, and losing it would mean it would cost billions more to fund bailouts.

Indian Markets

India's exports grew by 33.2% to $192.7 billion in the April-November period of the 2011-12 financial year. The country's imports also rose by 30.2% to $309.5 billion during the period, leaving a trade gap of $116.8 billion. India's manufacturing sector expansion slowed in November as factory output grew at its slowest pace in nearly three years although export demand should provide some cheer for factories. HSBC Markit India Manufacturing PMI fell to 51.0 from 52.0 in October, but has stayed above the 50 mark that divides growth from contraction for 32 months. Food inflation declined to 8% in the week ended November 19 from 9.01% in the preceding week. Inflation in the Primary Articles group fell to 7.74% in the week under review, from 9.08%. Inflation in the Fuel & Power group stood at 15.53% in the week ended November 19 versus 15.49% in the previous week.

India's services sector expanded in November for the first time in two months as new business accelerated despite persistent inflationary pressures. HSBC Markit Business Activity Index -- based on a survey of around 400 firms -- stood at 53.2 in November.

Outlook of the week starting 19/12

Looks like we are toast. And also looks like this new year party would be all about how we have lost money for good. Well as with all disaster movies that show crises after crises hitting the protagonist and finally victory and well earned at that; I am sure that just on the other side of 2011 there will be a strong recovery we would all be proud of. Asides, for the next couple of weeks, particularly week starting 19/12 I would imagine that we are hitting the slowness in the scheme of things. General lethargy to trade and look at the markets. People would look at an alibi to postpone purchases of stocks and consequent low volumes.

This is actually a good time to cherry pick in the large cap names. Nice time to have them all, at a price that you have been waiting for. Remember, just like all good things come to an end; bad things DO come to an end to. So stock up as always said, till stocks last.

Sources:

HDFC Securities Weekly wrap of the Market

Right Horizons Equity Desk for Outlook for the coming week

NIFTY RIP !!!!!!!!....

2011-12-16T17:37:00.000+05:30

Well I actually am going overboard on explaining the situation, but with Dr. Subbu going into a freeze mode and waiting a bit more to do anything, the bears are all out to bludgeon whichever bull they lay their sight on. The trickle post the policy has assumed biblical proportion of sell off by the time we hit 1500hrs on the clock. At the time of close, all the heavy weights took cover or were beating down severely. L&T was begging to let go at INR1075, Jaiprakash looks like will hit INR55, BHEL lost all power at INR240 and SAIL lost INR75. Moreover, there was blood over the non-index stocks particularly in the mid/small cap space. There were more than a handful of the respected names or darling of the past few weeks down over 10% each.

Stressful names such as a 3i Infotech are now kissing double digits and soon appear to go the Satyam way. Unfortunately, there will be no government to bail out this time; since this time the government needs a bailout from Team Anna playing truant for almost 6 months.

I believe with the kind of closing we have had today, looks like we are heading for pt. 4600 on the Nifty and stagnate at lower levels then before. For the next six months into the new year we could be very listless. However look at it this way. For entire 2011 calendar we would now in all likelihood close around 25% or so down than at the start of the year. My sense is that for 2012 from the beginning to the end we should close a big positive. Whether we close year 2012 by 15%, 20% or in single digits would be a matter of great debate.

Next week on, we enter a listless and slow and downward journey to the close of the year and into earnings early 2012. Until then, just cannot help.

Morning Bell !!......The Sensex rebounded with more than 100 points gains on Friday after sharp appreciation in the rupee

2011-12-16T10:07:00.000+05:30

Indian Markets

The Sensex rebounded with more than 100 points gains on Friday after sharp appreciation in the rupee. Even globally, the US economic data and Spanish bond auction improved sentiments yesterday. At the moment, all eyes are on the RBI's mid-quarter review of monetary policy expected today at 12 noon.

The Sensex was up 148.6 points at 15,985.07 and the Nifty was trading at 4,791.95, up 45.60. Banks, capital goods, telecom, auto and metals stocks gained.

US and European Markets

U.S. stocks closed higher on Thursday on upbeat jobs and manufacturing reports, but investors said the market remains nervous about the European debt crisis. Dow Jones rose 45 points, or 0.4%, to close at 11,869. S&P 500 rose 4 points, or 0.3%. Nasdaq added 2 points, or 0.1%, to 2,541.

European shares have closed sharply lower and the euro tumbled to near one-year dollar lows. The pessimistic mood was fuelled by fresh concerns the measures trumpeted at last week's EU summit will not solve the eurozone debt crisis. Britain's FTSE 100 rose 0.6%, DAX in Germany gained 1% and France's CAC 40 added 0.8%.

All the Indian ADRS ended in the green with Tata Communications gaining the most (4.2%) while MTNL and Satyam rose by 2.2% and 1.7% respectively. Tata Motors ended higher by 0.7% while Infosys and HDFC Bank gained 0.5% each. ICICI Bank and Wipro rose by 0.4% and 0.1% respectively.

Asian Markets

Today, all the Asian indices are trading in the green except Shanghai, which is down marginally. Kospi is trading higher by 0.5% while Nikkei and Strait Times are down 0.3% each. Hang Seng and Taiwan are down by 0.2% and 0.1% respectively. SGX Nifty is trading higher today by 5.5 points.

Currencies

The Indian rupee continued its downward spiral against the US dollar on Thursday, hitting another record low due to concerns over the eurozone debt crisis and weak domestic data.

Commodities

Among the metals, Copper and Zinc lost 1.2% and 0.2% respectively. Aluminium and Nickel gained 0.6% and 0.1% respectively. Oil for January delivery fell $1.08 to $93.87 a barrel. Gold futures for February delivery fell $9.70 to $1,577.20 an ounce.

Key events to watch for today

India Mid-Quarter Review of Monetary Policy

US Fed Balance Sheet, Money Supply, CPI

EU Merchandise Trade

Outlook for Today

Today, we expect the Indian Markets to open in the green in line with global cues. Today?s Mid Quarterly Review of the Monetary Policy would be keenly watched for further course of action.

Source-hdfcsec