Weekly Snap shot !!!....India's benchmark share indices ended nearly 3% up

Markets end the first week of 2012 in the green. India's benchmark share indices ended nearly 3% up in the week to January 7, led by banks and capital goods shares. While Sensex gained 394 pts or 2.6% to end at 15,849, Nifty was up 123 pts or 2.7% to end at 4,747.

The biggest gainers from the CNX 500 were TSC India, NFL, RCF and Tata Metallics. The biggest losers were Sterling Biotech, Hero MotoCorp, TVS Motors and Baja Auto.

Key Events

Global Markets

Euro region inflation slowed for the first time in five months in December, giving the European Central Bank room to lower borrowing costs further as the economy edges toward a recession. The inflation rate in the 17-nation euro area fell to 2.8% from 3% in November as per the European Union's statistics office report.

Singapore's economy shrank for the second time in three quarters as manufacturing eased, increasing pressure on policy makers to spur growth as they forecast slower expansion this year. Gross domestic product fell an annualized 4.9% in the fourth quarter of 2011 from the previous three months, when it climbed a revised 1.5%.

China's December PMI data ceased its sliding trend for two consecutive months and ended 2011 with a slight rebound. The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), a preliminary readout of the country's manufacturing activity, rebounded to 50.3% in December, indicating a stabler slowing trend for the country's economic growth.

Indian Markets

Private equity (PE) and venture capital (VC) investments in India rose 41% in 2011 over the previous year, the highest since 2007 as a sluggish capital market and costlier debt led Indian companies to approach these investors for fresh funds.

India's food price index declined for the first time in nearly six years as costs of pulses and vegetables fell, raising hopes that December's headline inflation rate could drop below 9% for the first time in more than a year. The fuel inflation accelerated to 14.6%, government data released during the week showed.

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) bought shares worth Rs 381.42 crore on 5th January 2012, as per provisional data from the stock exchanges. FII inflow totaled Rs 775.78 crore in three trading sessions on 3 to 5 January 2012, as per provisional data from the stock exchanges.

India raised iron ore export duties to 30% from 20% as it seeks to conserve supplies for the domestic steel industry. The new rate of 30% is applicable on both fine and lumps.

Key Sectoral Movement

Except BSE FMCG all other sectoral indices ended in the green. The top gainers were Capital Goods, PSU, Bankex and Metals, which rose by 6.2%, 6.2%, 6% and 5.4% respectively.

Outlook of the week

The focus for the next few weeks would be the Q3 results and guidance from the company managements on outlook for the remaining part of the year and for the next year. The market has been trading in a tight range of 4,700-4,800 on the Nifty. A breakout either way would decide future course of the market.

Source- HDFC Security

Weekly Market Wrap- When all hope is lost… hope beckons!

After rising smartly last week, the week gone by saw the Sensex/Nifty attempting to move higher. They however found resistance at the 17004/5099 levels and slid lower. The selling pressure intensified in the last two sessions of the week as the bears got the upper hand. W-o-W, while the Sensex lost 3.83%, the Nifty lost 3.63% over the same period. Market breadth was negative in two out of the four trading sessions of the week.

Key events

Global Markets

U.S. government reported that the number of people filing for initial unemployment benefits fell to a 9-month low of 381,000 in the latest week. Wholesale inventories for the month of October came in higher-than-expected at 1.6%. U.S. consumer credit rose by $7.7 billion in October, or 3.7% an annual rate, the Federal Reserve said. The trade deficit probably widened in October as a strengthening U.S. economy helped drive up the nation's import bill while exports cooled from a record high. The gap grew to $44 billion from the prior month's $43.1 billion shortfall that was the smallest this year.

European Central Bank took steps to revive the ailing European economy and ease credit conditions for troubled EURO zone banks. But ECB president Mario Draghi offered no indication that he is willing to intervene aggressively in the bond market, stressing that the onus is on European governments to resolve the debt crisis. China's inflation reached a 14-month low and industrial production rose less than forecast, bolstering the case for more stimulus measures to shore up growth in the world's second-largest economy. Japan's economy grew less than the government's initial estimate last quarter as companies reduced investment on concern overseas demand was stalling. Gross domestic product increased at an annualized 5.6 percent in the three months ended Sept. 30.

The European statistics agency, Eurostat, estimated that eurozone economy grew 0.2% in the third quarter.

S&P said it might also cut the AAA rating of Europe's bailout fund. The fund needs that top rating to cheaply raise money, and losing it would mean it would cost billions more to fund bailouts.

Indian Markets

India's exports grew by 33.2% to $192.7 billion in the April-November period of the 2011-12 financial year. The country's imports also rose by 30.2% to $309.5 billion during the period, leaving a trade gap of $116.8 billion. India's manufacturing sector expansion slowed in November as factory output grew at its slowest pace in nearly three years although export demand should provide some cheer for factories. HSBC Markit India Manufacturing PMI fell to 51.0 from 52.0 in October, but has stayed above the 50 mark that divides growth from contraction for 32 months. Food inflation declined to 8% in the week ended November 19 from 9.01% in the preceding week. Inflation in the Primary Articles group fell to 7.74% in the week under review, from 9.08%. Inflation in the Fuel & Power group stood at 15.53% in the week ended November 19 versus 15.49% in the previous week.

India's services sector expanded in November for the first time in two months as new business accelerated despite persistent inflationary pressures. HSBC Markit Business Activity Index -- based on a survey of around 400 firms -- stood at 53.2 in November.

Outlook of the week starting 19/12

Looks like we are toast. And also looks like this new year party would be all about how we have lost money for good. Well as with all disaster movies that show crises after crises hitting the protagonist and finally victory and well earned at that; I am sure that just on the other side of 2011 there will be a strong recovery we would all be proud of. Asides, for the next couple of weeks, particularly week starting 19/12 I would imagine that we are hitting the slowness in the scheme of things. General lethargy to trade and look at the markets. People would look at an alibi to postpone purchases of stocks and consequent low volumes.

This is actually a good time to cherry pick in the large cap names. Nice time to have them all, at a price that you have been waiting for. Remember, just like all good things come to an end; bad things DO come to an end to. So stock up as always said, till stocks last.

Sources:

HDFC Securities Weekly wrap of the Market

Right Horizons Equity Desk for Outlook for the coming week

Weekly Snap Shot !!!.... W-o-W, while the Sensex lost 3.83%, the Nifty lost 3.63% over the same period

After rising smartly last week, the week gone by saw the Sensex/Nifty attempting to move higher. They however found resistance at the 17004/5099 levels and slid lower. The selling pressure intensified in the last two sessions of the week as the bears got the upper hand. W-o-W, while the Sensex lost 3.83%, the Nifty lost 3.63% over the same period. Market breadth was negative in two out of the four trading sessions of the week.

Key events

Global Markets

U.S. government reported that the number of people filing for initial unemployment benefits fell to a 9-month low of 381,000 in the latest week.

European Central Bank took steps to revive the ailing European economy and ease credit conditions for troubled eurozone banks. But ECB president Mario Draghi offered no indication that he is willing to intervene aggressively in the bond market, stressing that the onus is on European governments to resolve the debt crisis. The European statistics agency, Eurostat, estimated that eurozone economy grew 0.2% in the third quarter. S&P said it might also cut the AAA rating of Europe's bailout fund. The fund needs that top rating to cheaply raise money, and losing it would mean it would cost billions more to fund bailouts.

Indian Markets

India's exports grew by 33.2% to $192.7 billion in the April-November period of the 2011-12 financial year. The country's imports also rose by 30.2% to $309.5 billion during the period, leaving a trade gap of $116.8 billion.

India's manufacturing sector expansion slowed in November as factory output grew at its slowest pace in nearly three years although export demand should provide some cheer for factories. HSBC Markit India Manufacturing PMI fell to 51.0 from 52.0 in October, but has stayed above the 50 mark that divides growth from contraction for 32 months.

Food inflation declined to 8% in the week ended November 19 from 9.01% in the preceding week. Inflation in the Primary Articles group fell to 7.74% in the week under review, from 9.08%. Inflation in the Fuel & Power group stood at 15.53% in the week ended November 19 versus 15.49% in the previous week.

India's services sector expanded in November for the first time in two months as new business accelerated despite persistent inflationary pressures. HSBC Markit Business Activity Index -- based on a survey of around 400 firms -- stood at 53.2 in November.

Key Sectoral Movement

All the sectoral indices except IT ended in the red. IT gained marginally by 0.1%. The top losers were Capital Goods, Realty, Oil & Gas and Metals, which fell by 5.4%, 4.8%, 4.6% and 4.5% respectively.

Outlook of the week

With the Indian markets drifting down this week, the upmove seen last week seems to have been negated. Traders will now need to watch if the Nifty can hold above the supports of 4755. Else, a further sell-off can be seen.

Source-hdfcsec

Weekly Snap Shot- Sensex gained 7.6%, the Nifty closed 7.22% higher

After bouncing back from the lows of 4639 late last week, the week gone by saw the markets rallying strongly to end the week with hefty gains. While the Sensex gained 7.6%, the Nifty closed 7.22% higher. Market breadth was however positive in only two out of the five trading sessions of the week.

Key Events

Global Markets

The number of people filing for initial unemployment benefits in the USA rose by 6,000 to 402,000 in the latest week, the government said. That was higher than expected, with economists forecasting jobless claims to have totaled 390,000 for the week ending Nov. 26.

Standard and Poor's cut the ratings on dozens of major banks, including Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, and Citigroup. The downgrades were the result of the agency's new ratings criteria for the world's 37 largest financial institutions.

Worries about Europe's debt crisis continued to dominate the week amid a series of lackluster debt auctions and rising eurozone bond yields. Mounting yields continued to trouble investors on Friday. Italian 10-year bond yields moved back above 7%, a level that eventually required bailouts for Greece, Portugal and Ireland. The Spanish 10-year yield also rose to within spitting distance of the worrisome level.

Indian Markets

Government indicated that no proposal for any kind of bailout package for loss making private airlines was under its consideration.

India's October exports rose an annual at Rs 1,01,920 crore ($19.6 billion). Oil imports for the month grew 21.7% to Rs 1,03,480 crore ($19.9 billion), while imports for the month rose 21.7% to Rs 2,05,400 crore ($39.5 billion)

Terming the 6.9% economic growth in the second quarter as "lower than expectation", the Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council indicates that good performance by farm sector would take annual growth for FY12 to 7.5%

Key Sectoral Movement

All the sectoral indices ended with gains for the week ended December 02, 2011. The top sectoral gainers were BSE Metal, Bankex, Oil and Gas and Power indices.

Outlook of the week

With the markets rebounding strongly and the Nifty crossing the 5011 resistances, the bulls do seem to have an upper hand. Traders will need to see if the Nifty can cross the 5169 resistances for further upsides. Crucial downside supports are at 4920.

Source-hdfcsec

Weekly Market Snapshot.....W-o-W, while the Sensex lost 4.3%, the Nifty lost 3.99% over the same period

The week gone by saw the markets continuing to slide lower. In the process, the crucial lows of 15745/4720 were broken and the Sensex/Nifty resumed their intermediate downtrend. It was the fourth consecutive week of losses. W-o-W, while the Sensex lost 4.3%, the Nifty lost 3.99% over the same period. Reflecting the weak sentiments seen during the week, market breadth was negative in three out of the five trading sessions of the week.

Global Markets

US crude oil fell more than $2 and Brent crude lost over $1 per barrel on worries over the prospects for global economic growth as debt crises dominated headlines on both sides of the Atlantic.

The euro zone's debt crisis struck again at the heart of Europe despite a clear-cut election victory in Spain for conservatives committed to tougher austerity.

German government bond yields hit their highest in nearly a month and world stocks held near 7-week lows on Thursday, a day after a weak debt sale in Berlin fanned fears the euro zone debt crisis is starting to threaten its biggest economy.

Indian Markets

The Securities and Exchange Board (Sebi) set a minimum allotment size of Rs 5 crore ($1 million) for issuing shares in an initial public offer to "anchor" or cornerstone investors.
The Cabinet cleared the bill to increase foreign direct investment to 51% in multi-brand retail and 100% in single brand.

Inflation is expected to moderate if the current easing trend in weekly food and fuel prices continues. Food inflation fell sharply to single digit at 9.01% for the week ended November 12 even as prices of most agricultural items, barring potatoes, onions and wheat, continued to rise, on an annual basis.

Amid falling value of rupee, the RBI today asked corporates to park funds raised through ECBs for domestic expenditure with local banks, a move which will increase inflow of foreign currency.

Outlook of the week

With the markets again resuming their downtrend after bouncing back on Thursday and the Sensex/Nifty trading below their previous lows of 15745/4720, the underlying trend remains down. Our immediate downside targets for the Nifty are at 4640. We continue with our go slow approach on fresh longs till we see signs of sustainable strength.

Source-hdfcsecurity

Weekly Market report.....W-o-W, the Sensex ended 0.87% lower

Carrying on from last week, the week gone by which had only three trading sessions saw the markets sliding down further. It was the second consecutive week of losses. W-o-W, the Sensex ended 0.87% lower. Reflecting the weak sentiments, market breadth was negative in all the three trading sessions of the week.

Key Events

Global Markets

U.S. import prices fell 0.6% in October, after remaining unchanged in September. Export prices fell 2.1% in October -- the largest monthly decline since December 2008, when export prices fell 2.2%.

Spain's economy stalled in the third quarter, undermining the country's efforts to shield itself from the sovereign debt crisis after Spanish and Italian borrowing costs surged to records. Gross domestic product was unchanged from the previous quarter, when it expanded 0.2 percent.

South Africa's credit ratings outlook was lowered to negative by Moody's Investors Service, indicating it may downgrade the nation's debt from A3, as "heightened political risk" and spending demands put pressure on public finances. The outlook was reduced from stable.

Indian Markets

India's industrial production grew in September at the slowest pace in two years, hurt by record interest-rate increases and a faltering global recovery. Output at factories, utilities and mines increased 1.9 percent from a year earlier after a revised 3.6 percent gain in August.

India's exports grew year-on-year by 10.8% to $19.9 billion in October while imports expanded at a sharper rate, leaving a big trade deficit of $19.6 billion.

Food inflation continued to surge, climbing to its highest level in close to 10 months in the third week of October.

Global credit rating agency Moody's Investors Service has revised its outlook for India's banking system to negative from stable. It also warned that bank ratings may come under downward pressure. This change in outlook is due to concerns that an increasingly challenging operating environment will adversely affect asset quality, capitalisation, and profitability of Indian banks.

Key Sectoral Movement

All the sectoral indices except FMCG fell over the week. FMCG gained 1.2%. The top losers were Realty, Bankex, Metals and Capital Goods, which ended lower by 6%, 5.4%, 4.8% and 3.6% respectively.

Outlook of the week

With the Nifty ending lower on Friday and closing below the supports of 5200, the outlook remains weak for the time being. We recommend a cautious approach on fresh longs.

Source- hdfcsec

Weekly Snap shot...Sensex finally closed the week with loss of 1.4% while Nifty too ended the week 1.4% lower.

Indian Markets began this week on a negative note amid profit booking and weak global cues. Markets ended in the red in 3 out of 5 trading sessions. The last 2 days witnessed some bounce back on hopes that Greece referendum may not happen. Sensex finally closed the week with loss of 1.4% while Nifty too ended the week 1.4% lower.

Global Markets

• In a surprise move, the ECB trimmed interest rates by a quarter points to 1.25 percent.
• Factory activity in Asia's export powerhouses slowed to near three-year lows in October as European demand dropped; reinforcing fears the euro zone's debt troubles were sapping global growth.

Indian Markets

• India's exports grew by 36.3% on an annual basis to $24.8 billion in September, 2011, demonstrating impressive year-on-year expansion despite a slowdown in the US and Europe.
• With rising input costs and high interest rates, growth in eight key infrastructure sectors slowed down to 2.3% in September from 3.3% a year ago.
• n signs of sluggish employment market conditions, hiring activities across sectors witnessed a significant slump in October.

Key Sectoral Movement

All the sectoral indices except FMCG, Power and Realty ended in the red. The top losers were Auto, Metals, Consumer Durables and Oil & Gas, which lost 3.4%, 2.5%, 1.7% and 1.7% respectively. FMCG, Power and Realty rose by 0.7%, 0.5% and 0.1% respectively.

 

Outlook for week ahead

Next week being a holiday shortened week, Indian Markets could track and take cues from developments in Europe especially Greece although it ended this week on a good note.