Morning Bell !!...Key indices trading in green with positive Asian market cues

Indian Markets

The key Indian stock indices have climbed in early morning trade with the BSE Sensex up well over 100 points and the NSE Nifty reclaiming the 4,750 mark. Market breadth is fairly positive as the broader indices have extended gains from the previous session. Most sectoral indices on the BSE are trading in the positive terrain.

US and European Markets

Stocks edged higher on Monday as investors continued to keep a close eye on events in Europe and geared up for the start of fourth-quarter corporate earnings announcements. Dow Jones rose 33 points, or 0.3%, to end at 12,393. S&P 500 added 3 points, or 0.2%, to 1,281. Nasdaq composite rose 2 points, or 0.2%, to 2,676.

European stock markets finished lower Monday, as German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy failed to inspire market participants with their latest meeting, while downbeat German data added to the weaker tone. Britain's FTSE 100 and DAX in Germany both lost 0.7% and France's CAC 40 eased 0.3%.

Asian Markets

Today the Asian indices are trading in the in the green with Kospi trading higher by 1.8% while Taiwan is up 1.1%. Shanghai is up by 0.8% while Strait Times is up 0.6%. Nikkei is up 0.5%. SGX Nifty is trading higher by 23 points.

Currencies

the Indian Rupee rose for the second day to close at nearly three-week high of 52.51/52 against the Dollar, up by 20 paise on sustained selling of the US currency by exporters.

Commodities

Among the metals, Copper fell by 0.4% while Aluminium gained the most (2%). Zinc and Nickel rose by 1.4% and 1.2% respectively. Oil for February delivery fell 25 cents to settle at $101.31 a barrel. Gold futures for February delivery declined $8.70 to $1,608.10 an ounce.

Outlook

Today, the Indian market is likely to open in the green on the back of global cues and positive European news. Among the sectoral indices, Auto, Banking and IT stocks could do well.

Sources- hdfc security, india infoline

Morning Be!!....Sensex down 99 points to 15,750.08 and the Nifty slipped 29 points to 4,718.30

Indian Markets

The Indian main indices have lost ground early on with the NSE Nifty dipping below the 4750 mark while the BSE Sensex lost 100 points. But, the broader market is faring relatively better and therefore the market breadth is even.

Gail India is trading slightly up after it was inducted into the Sensex. Gail replaces Jaiprakash Associates, which is in the red after market regulator SEBI penalized its promoters for alleged insider trading. Reliance Power is up on reports that Northern Coalfields (NCL) has agreed to surrender land required to mine two blocks attached to the Sasan ultra mega power plant.

This week is crucial as the Government will announce the latest IIP and inflation data. Also, the Q3 earnings season will kick off in the right earnest. Infosys and HDFC will release their numbers on Thursday.

Meanwhile, the Election Commission is likely to reschedule the first phase of the Uttar Pradesh assembly polls. It was to begin on February 4. The new date of the first phase will be announced shortly.

US and European Markets

US equity benchmarks pared weekly gains on Friday despite an encouraging report on the country's labour market. Investors chose to focus on the worsening credit crisis in the eurozone. The euro dropped below $1.27 for the first time since September 2010, sliding 1.7% for the week. The dollar index rose above 81, hitting one-year high. Most European stock indices fell on Friday as Italy’s 10-year government bond yield surged above 7%. The ECB reportedly intervened in the secondary markets to buy Spanish and Italian bonds. A yield of more than 7% is generally viewed as unsustainable for the debt-strapped governments in the euro area.

Asian Markets

Today the Asian indices are trading in the red except Shanghai, which is up by 1.3%. Kospi is trading lower by 1.5% while Strait Times is down 1%. Hang Seng and Taiwan are down by 0.8% and 0.7% respectively. SGX Nifty is trading lower by 33 points.

Currencies

The Indian Rupee closed stronger vis-a-vis the Dollar on Friday, ending the week with a 0.7% gain as foreign investors bought local debt.

Commodities

Among the metals, Zinc lost 0.3% while Copper gained 0.7%. Aluminium and Nickel rose by 0.5% each. Oil for February delivery lost 53 cents to $101.28 a barrel. Gold futures for February delivery fell $3.30 to $1,616.80 an ounce.

Outlook

Today, the Indian market is likely to open on a flat to negative note. It could trade in a range with a negative bias. Among the sectoral indices, Banking and Oil & Gas stocks could underperform while FMCG stocks could do well.

Sources- HDFC Security/ India Infoline/ Rh Morning market update

Weekly Snap shot !!!....India's benchmark share indices ended nearly 3% up

Markets end the first week of 2012 in the green. India's benchmark share indices ended nearly 3% up in the week to January 7, led by banks and capital goods shares. While Sensex gained 394 pts or 2.6% to end at 15,849, Nifty was up 123 pts or 2.7% to end at 4,747.

The biggest gainers from the CNX 500 were TSC India, NFL, RCF and Tata Metallics. The biggest losers were Sterling Biotech, Hero MotoCorp, TVS Motors and Baja Auto.

Key Events

Global Markets

Euro region inflation slowed for the first time in five months in December, giving the European Central Bank room to lower borrowing costs further as the economy edges toward a recession. The inflation rate in the 17-nation euro area fell to 2.8% from 3% in November as per the European Union's statistics office report.

Singapore's economy shrank for the second time in three quarters as manufacturing eased, increasing pressure on policy makers to spur growth as they forecast slower expansion this year. Gross domestic product fell an annualized 4.9% in the fourth quarter of 2011 from the previous three months, when it climbed a revised 1.5%.

China's December PMI data ceased its sliding trend for two consecutive months and ended 2011 with a slight rebound. The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), a preliminary readout of the country's manufacturing activity, rebounded to 50.3% in December, indicating a stabler slowing trend for the country's economic growth.

Indian Markets

Private equity (PE) and venture capital (VC) investments in India rose 41% in 2011 over the previous year, the highest since 2007 as a sluggish capital market and costlier debt led Indian companies to approach these investors for fresh funds.

India's food price index declined for the first time in nearly six years as costs of pulses and vegetables fell, raising hopes that December's headline inflation rate could drop below 9% for the first time in more than a year. The fuel inflation accelerated to 14.6%, government data released during the week showed.

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) bought shares worth Rs 381.42 crore on 5th January 2012, as per provisional data from the stock exchanges. FII inflow totaled Rs 775.78 crore in three trading sessions on 3 to 5 January 2012, as per provisional data from the stock exchanges.

India raised iron ore export duties to 30% from 20% as it seeks to conserve supplies for the domestic steel industry. The new rate of 30% is applicable on both fine and lumps.

Key Sectoral Movement

Except BSE FMCG all other sectoral indices ended in the green. The top gainers were Capital Goods, PSU, Bankex and Metals, which rose by 6.2%, 6.2%, 6% and 5.4% respectively.

Outlook of the week

The focus for the next few weeks would be the Q3 results and guidance from the company managements on outlook for the remaining part of the year and for the next year. The market has been trading in a tight range of 4,700-4,800 on the Nifty. A breakout either way would decide future course of the market.

Source- HDFC Security

Morning Be!!.....The frontline Indian stock indices advanced at the opening bell

Indian Markets

The frontline Indian stock indices advanced at the opening bell and are trading just a tad higher in early morning trade with the BSE Sensex within striking distance of the 16,000 mark and the NSE Nifty above 4750.

The market breadth is positive as broader indices too have posted slim gains in early morning trade. India VIX is flat and most sectoral indices are trading in the positive territory.

The early bounce across world stocks has tapered off a wee bit as old worries have returned to haunt global investors. Auto shares may remain in the spotlight as the 11th Indian Auto Expo kicks off today

US and European Markets

U.S. stocks clawed back from earlier losses to close mixed on Wednesday amid renewed concerns about the debt crisis in Europe.Dow Jones rose 22 points, or 0.2%, according to early tallies. S&P 500 edged up less than 1 point, while Nasdaq lost less than 1 point.

Asian Markets

Today the Asian indices are trading in the green except Nikkei and Shanghai, which are down by 0.6% and 0.3% respectively. Taiwan is trading higher by 0.3% while Strait Times, Kospi amd Hang Seng are up by 0.2% each. SGX Nifty is trading lower by 3 points.

Currencies

The Indian rupee ended higher for the second straight session on Wednesday after trading in a narrow range, on dollar sales by some foreign banks, although a retreat in the euro and a fall in domestic equities capped gains.

Commodities

Among the metals, Copper fell by 0.2% while Aluminujm and Nickel gained 1.7% and 1.4% respectively. Zinc rose by 0.7%.Oil for February delivery fell 38 cents to $102.58 a barrel. Gold futures for February delivery rose $12.70 to $1,613.20 an ounce.

Key events to watch for today

India - WPI Data y-o-y change

Outlook

Today, the Indian market is likely to open on a flat to positive note and later trade in a range. Support on Nifty is at 4,720 while resistance is at 4,800-4,840 levels. Among the sectoral indices, Capital Goods could do well.
Sources- HDFC SECURITY, RH Morning Report

Slow run rate would now ki!!

The days’ progress is now looking like it will kill the momentum. Barring the sporadic swings in isolated stocks such as Engineer’s India which was up whopping 10% at peak today, lost the fizz post the market weakness and finally closed up around only 3.4%. The mid-caps are now turning into ‘MAD CAPS’ running helter skelter, with no really direction; and it is extremely difficult to put your hands on any specific bunch or sectors which would stand out.

For now it is too early to tell whether January 2012 would turn out to be solidly up or precariously down, however, that the momentum could be up or down would be decided in the middle over’s of the innings. For now it is time to nudge the days and pick up and be ready for the earnings season which is up on us in less than 10 days.

Will keep it short for now. The market closed down after two days of strength, and thankfully losing only 0.33%, some consolation. The tax season has started and we just hope that ELSS schemes (those dreaded ones) should marginally impact the market. Wishful thinking? Maybe.

Sleep tight.!!!

Second ball Six!

Imagine a T20 match between India and Australia and after having conceded horrendous amount of runs in the first inning of the match to Aussies, we come into bat and in the first over first ball we are off to a two run start and on the second ball of the innings Shewag hits a six. There are only two emotions that a cricket fans has, either he continues this way and the match would be over in the 16th over, or this guy would do a hara kiri and lose it in the next ball.

Now replace the cricket enthusiast with an investor. With horrendous first innings in 2011 now we are kind of getting a good start; but we must remember that 2 balls is not the innings but there are another 118 balls to be bowled. So any enthusiasm with the kind of performance since the beginning of year 2012 (essentially two trading days) must translate into a few weeks and then a few months to make any meaningful returns or match of the situation.

Today’s session was really kind of redemption of the really badly beaten folks, must I say. The likes of infra, realty and to an extent financial institutions stole the show. There was not big evidence of across the board buying. Also, as expected the volumes are yet to pick up in any meaningful manner. So what we could be seeing is essentially the nibblers or the dime pickers trying to salvage some money from the wreckage. But often one does find a lot of good stuff in leftover of hurricane or war torn zone.

Not that we have really seen one, but it just appears to be so, or made out to be.

In closing, I would now really see if this initial momentum of a couple of days translates into couple of weeks and then the whole of January 2012. If that does happen, then indeed we are really setting up for a match.

Morning Be!!.....Indian stock indices struggling for direction in early morning trade

Indian Markets

The frontline Indian stock indices appear to be struggling for direction in early morning trade after opening slightly positive. The BSE Sensex and the NSE Nifty are trading just in the red, or almost unchanged after advancing smartly in the previous two sessions. At the same time, the broader indices seem to be holding on to modest gains, resulting in a positive market breadth.

The Small-Cap and Mid-cap index was trading flat.

Consumer Durables, Oil and Gas, Power, PSU and IT indices are the gainers.

FMCG, Bankex, HC, Metal, Auto, Realty indices are the losers.

US and European Markets

U.S. stocks rallied on Tuesday, kicking off the new year on a high note, as investors welcomed upbeat reports on economic activity around the world. Dow Jones jumped 180 points, or 1.5%, to end at 12,397. S&P 500 gained 19 points, or 1.5%, to 1,277. Nasdaq added 43 points, or 1.7%, to 2,649. The gains came after reports on manufacturing growth in China and India came in better than expected over the weekend. On Tuesday, a report showed U.S. manufacturing activity grew at a faster rate in December.

European stocks also rose. Britain's FTSE 100 added 2%, DAX in Germany added 1.5% and France's CAC 40 gained 0.4%.

Asian Markets

Today the Asian indices are trading in the green except Shanghai and Kospi, which are down by 0.3% and 0.1% respectively. Nikkei is trading higher by 1.2% while Strait Times is up 0.3%. Hang Seng and Taiwan are up by 0.2% each. Asian stocks are up, as investor risk appetite returned after upbeat U.S. and European economic data boosted global shares and commodities and hopes for improved growth outlook grew despite worries over the euro zone debt crisis. SGX Nifty is trading higher by 2 points.

Currencies

Snapping its three session losing string, the rupee today gained 9 paise to close at 53.21/22 against the dollar amid a strong rally in local equities and fresh dollar selling by exporters.

Commodities

Among the metals, Aluminium gained the most (2.1%) while Copper rose by 1.5%. Nickel and Zinc ended higher by 0.9% and 0.3% respectively. Oil for February delivery added $4.20, or 4.2%, to $103.03 a barrel. Gold futures for February delivery rose $33.70 to end at $1,600.50 an ounce.

Outlook

Today, the Indian market is likely to open in the green on the back of positive global cues and inch up further during the day. Among the sectoral indices, Banking and Oil & Gas stocks could do well.

Source- HDFCSEC, Rh morning market update

Morning Bell !!..........Sensex jumps 247 point on stronger global cues

Indian Markets

The good tidings of the new year continue in to the second trading session with the main stock indices extending gains from the previous session on the back of encouraging data on the manufacturing sector from across the globe. Market breadth is healthy and India VIX fell as much as 4%.

Infosys, Wipro, Bajaj Auto, DRREDDY, Maruti, L&T, ICICI Bank, HDFC, Ranbaxy, Tata Steel, DLF, BHEL, Tata Power, Tata Motors, SBI, HUL were among the notable leaders in the Sensex and the Nifty.

M&M, BPCL, Sesa Goa were among the notable losers in the Sensex and the Nifty.

The BSE Small-Cap and BSE Mid-Cap index was trading flat.

Metal, Bankex, Realty, Power, PSU, HC, Auto, FMCG, Oil and Gas, IT indices are the gainers.

Asian Markets

Today the Asian indices are trading in the green with Kospi and Shanghai trading higher by 2.1% and 1.9% respectively. Taiwan is up by 1.3%. SGX Nifty is trading higher by 43 points.

Currencies

The Indian Rupee on Monday lost 20 paise to the Dollar to close at a fresh two-week low of 53.30/31, ending the first day of trading in the new year on a subdued note. Increased demand for the dollar from importers and concerns over the government’s widening fiscal deficit weighed on the sentiment.

Outlook

Today, the Indian market is likely to open in the green on the back of positive global cues and inch up further during the day. Among the sectoral indices, Capital Goods, IT and Oil & Gas stocks could do well while Auto stocks could underperform.

Source- Rh Morning market update, HDFCSEC

On a positive note!

At the outset; I would want to wish each one of you a Healthy, fun filled, financial rewarding (very important) and joyous 2012 and beyond.

The market ended today on a positive note and this could have an important bearing on what lies on the year ahead. For one, I believe that thinking intuitively should come very naturally, yet it, like art is never mastered. Also, though the fundamentals of logic and intuitive thinking are very easy to understand, they are extremely difficult to put to practice. Remember, even ace swimmers do panic when put in situations which they have not witnessed before and drown.

Staying calm, staying focused and working more hard (as opposed to working hardly) when times are tough is the only way to tide over the extra-ordinary circumstances that present us.

The implications of positive markets for today might not mean much in terms of forecasting what lay ahead for the entire 200+ trading days ahead; however it does have bearing in the light of what has happened over the past 52 weeks of trading we have seen. I must admit that looking behind over several 52 week period back to 2008, which has been a longish enough period the fatigue factor has indeed set-in, in the minds of the investors.

Therein lies the opportunity, people (often seasoned) drop guard in these times. They resign to the fact that we are in for an extended period of bad phase and abandon all hope. There is where opportunity lies. Ultimately, life is a matter of seeking arbitrage. One who has spotted a wide gap, whether it be financial, spiritual or material; he would make a killing.

Finally, the part where all you guys would push me to; to forecast what lay ahead. I would stick my neck out and come out strong in favour of equities for the year 2012. While I do not foresee runaway bull rally from the word go; I would think that we will end 2012 with respectable returns for the equities markets. This means that for people who could not make money in 2011, this is an excellent time to make it. For those waiting to enter, the time could not have been better.

Get in, sit back and enjoy the ride.

Morning Bell !!!....The Indian markets opened the first trading session of 2012

Indian Markets

The Indian markets opened the first trading session of 2012 on a rather subdued note before climbing marginally in early morning trade. The Advance-Decline ratio on the BSE is favorable for the bulls so far as the broader indices are keeping pace with their Large-Cap peers. Overall, the undertone remains cautious amid persistent challenges confronting the domestic as well as global economy.

The BSE Mid-Cap and Small-Cap index was trading flat. Auto, Consumer Goods, Metal, PSU, Bankex,HC, Power indices are the gainers. Realty, IT and FMCG indices are the losers.

RIL, ICICI Bank, L&T, M&M, Coal India, Bharti Airtel, BHEL, RCOM, Maruti,ONGC,Sterlite were among the notable leaders in the Sensex and the Nifty.

Infosys, DLF, Tata Steel, Tata Power, HUL, NTPC, Sun Pharma,HDFC Bank, HDFC, were among the notable losers in the Sensex and the Nifty.

US and European Markets

Stocks finished little changed on Friday. Dow Jones fell 69 points, or 0.6%. The S&P 500 dropped 5 points, or 0.4%, and Nasdaq fell 9 points, or 0.3%. At its peak in April, S&P had climbed more than 8%. Dow, meanwhile, rose 5.5% for the year, and Nasdaq lost 1.8%.

European stock markets ended in the green on the last day of the year. Britain's FTSE 100 finished up 0.1%, Germany's DAX edged up 0.9% and France's CAC 40 rose 0.4%. But for the year dominated by Europe's debt crisis, all three indexes ended in the red.

Asian Markets

Today the Asian indices are trading in the red except Shanghai, which is up 1.2%. Taiwan and Kospi are down by 0.9% and 0.3% respectively. SGX Nifty is trading higher by 14 points.

Currencies

The Indian rupee appreciated by 0.2% on Friday vs the Dollar.

Commodities

Among the metals, Copper and Nickel gained 2.5% and 1.7% respectively. Zinc ended higher by 1.4% while Aluminium rose by 0.4%. Oil for February delivery fell 82 cents to settle at $98.83 a barrel. Crude prices rose more than 8% in 2011, marking the third consecutive years of increases. Gold futures for February delivery added $25.90, or 1.7%, to settle at $1,566.80 an ounce.

Key events to watch for today

India - HSBC India manufacturing PMI

Outlook

Today, the Indian market is likely to open in the green and take cues from European markets. Among the sectoral indices, Metal stocks could outperform.

Source- RH Morning market update, HDFC SEC