Last ball six!

The Indian cricket team might have got a drubbing of 4-0 in the recently concluded Aussie test series, but the Indian stock market investor can take solace from the fact that January 2012 has ended in a classic Shewag style last ball six with the market gaining 2.2% in the last trading day for the month. The lead was taken by none other than Shewag like ICICI Bank which posted some stellar results in the Q3FY12 earnings release that happened today.

This couple with support from other bigges such as RIL and HDFCBank, SBI and other key banking players aided the stellar closing for the day. With this, now the Nifty Index closed January 2012 with a 12.5% returns for the month, amongst it’s top monthly performance for a long time. And what a time to deliver it. To put things into perspective. 2011 January the Nifty Index closed with huge 10.58% negative and that had just started the leak which transformed into a huge flood and by December 2011 we have a 25% hole in the returns for that year.

With this strong pull back, as mentioned in the earlier rants, the tone for the year 2012 has already been set; so if the global macro situation just holds on a bit then we could end up with decent returns on the ticker. In the worst case, we could end up with single digit returns, which should pave way for a very strong foundation for a bull run over the next few years.

So now all booking are open for tickets for the February 2012 show.

Morning Be!!....Indian stock indices have advanced in early morning trade, with the NSE Nifty reclaiming the 5100 mark and the BSE Sensex crossing 17,000.

Indian Markets

The frontline Indian stock indices have advanced in early morning trade, with the NSE Nifty reclaiming the 5100 mark and the BSE Sensex crossing 17,000. The undercurrent is upbeat as investors focus on gains for other Asian markets and reports suggest that Most EU leaders have agreed to strengthen a financial firewall against the debt crisis. The rebound today has come after Monday's big selloff where the Nifty and the Sensex lost 2% each.

Major Results Today:

ICICI Bank, PNB, NMDC, Siemens, Titan, Crompton Greaves, TVS Motor, Dabur India, IDBI Bank, Central Bank of India, Jagran Prakashan, Mahindra Holidays, Century Textiles, Shoppers Stop, Union Bank of India, Aban Offshore, City Union Bank, Delta Corp, PTC India, HCL Infosystem, Firstsource Solutions, Subex, KEC International, Blue Dart, IPCA Labs, Financial Technologies, Berger Paints, DCM Shriram Consolidated, Usha Martin, Welspun Projects

US & European Markets

U.S. stocks recovered most of their lost ground on Monday afternoon but struggled to pull out of the red as concerns over Greece continued to weigh on the market. Stocks started the day down about 1% after the weekend came and went without Greek leaders reaching an agreement on a debt-relief deal. But as the trading session wore on, the major indexes trimmed most of those losses.

Dow Jones finished 7 points lower, or 0.1%. Earlier, the blue chip index had declined 131 points. S&P 500 lost 3 points, or 0.3%, and Nasdaq slumped 5 points, or 0.2%.

European stocks extended losses due to uncertainties whether the meeting will bring viable solutions to the debt crisis in the area. Britain's FTSE 100 fell 1.1%, DAX in Germany dropped 1% and France's CAC 40 lost 1.6%.

Asian Markets

Today, amongst the Asian markets Strait times & Shanghai Composite are trading in the red, down by 0.4% and 0.2% respectively. Nikkei is trading up by 0.3%. Hang Seng & Kospi are up by 0.7% and 0.8% respectively. The Taiwan markets too are up by 1%.SGX Nifty is trading higher by 38 points.

Currencies

The Indian Rupee retreated from a near three-month high on Monday, weighed by weak equities, US Dollar demand from a local steelmaker and oil importers. Traders also awaited a debt deal between Greece and its private creditors for further clues on the local currency.

Commodities

Among the metals, Zinc and Copper fell by 3.6% and 2.5% respectively. Aluminium and Nickel ended lower by 1.5% each. Oil for March delivery slipped 78 cents to settle at $98.78 a barrel. Gold futures for April delivery fell $1.00 to settle at $1,734.40 an ounce.

Key events to watch for today

India : CPI (Industrial Workers)

Outlook for Today

Today, we expect the Indian Markets to open in the green and later witness some profit booking at higher levels during the day. Immediate supports to watch are at 5050 & 5000 levels while the immediate resistance levels are 5162 & 5200. Among the sectors, FMCG & Health Care may relativly fall by a lesser magnitude if markets correct from a higher levels during the day.

Sources- hdfcsec, India Infoline

Too hot to handle!

When you hit the peddle to the floor the vehicle moves fast and when it gains momentum you ease on the peddle. When you don’t do that, keep the pedal to the floor for an extended period of time, the vehicle keeps picking momentum until a point where you start to lose control. Over the past 30 days the market kept taking the momentum and did not ease one bit, so today’s fall was expected and also in a way good for the market. Had the momentum taken the market’s to dizzy heights, then the fall could be been that much sharper and painful.

So the momentum has stuck on, I would imagine and the pull back could be a few more percentage points, however, looks like we would be ok in terms of corporate performance since now corporate are increasingly getting into a belt tightening mode to protect margins and profits. So earnings should stabilize this year. This period therefore is extremely crucial for us to take selective entry into the market with every passing correction.

When the positive momentum starts to build in from a structural point of view, then these corrections will become very short and small. We are yet slightly away from that point. At this moment it would look like we are heading into 4000 points on the Nifty. Actually, I would imagine we would never get there. The low point has occurred sometime last year and could be tested, if at all, and then head higher gradually from here. Ultimately, there is no place else to go and this would be evident from each passing quarter. Of course it would be extremely painful to experience the same.

Today was particularly notorious for performance from BHEL. Reporting disappointing numbers earlier, the stock did face some stick in the hands of investors. If today belonged to BHEL, will it be SBI tomorrow, since the bank reports earnings. And I would be the last person to be surprised if it reports ugly earnings. According to me, the surprise element was taken away, when earlier this month the chairman indicated that the KFA debt is essentially an NPA and that there are scores of such hidden ugly loans in the balance sheet. So we have no choice but to wait for the can of worms to open tomorrow. In all the doom lies opportunity. Only if we spot it and sit tight. Indians that we are, we are never accustomed to sit tight.

At least, sleep right, good night.

Morning Bell.....The Sensex opened 150 points lower to kickstart the week following weak global cues

Indian Markets

The top Indian equity indices have lost some ground in early minutes of trade. Investors are taking a step back after this month's strong rally while the undercurrent remains cautious ahead of today's EU leaders' summit. Also, lower-than-expected Q4 GDP growth in the US has also caused investors to be a little more guarded.

BHEL tanked 8.6% as its margin declined at 19.37% versus 22.96% YoY due to inflationary pressure and rising competition.

The Sensex was down 123 points at 17,110.63 and the Nifty fell 40 points to 5,164.65.

Major Results Today:

NMDC, Glenmark Pharma, Balrampur Chini , LIC Hsg, Indian Bank, Oriental Bank, Allahbad Bank, Corporation Bank, GMDC, Indiabulls Financial, Havells India, United Phosphorus, Kansai Nerolac, National Fertilizers, EID Parry, MCLeod Russel, Sadbhav Engineering, Punjab and Sind Bank, Bajaj Corp, ENIL, Orient Papers, HSIL, Aanjaneya, IL&FS Investment Managers, Taj GVK, Noida Toll Bridge, PVR, Ajmera Realty, Chemplast, Zee Learn, Nelcast, GHCL, Nitco, Rajshree Sugar, Amarjyothi, Electrotherm, Pansonic Home, 3M India, Ingersoll Rand, Mahindra Lifespace

US and European Markets

U.S. stocks ended mostly lower on Friday as jittery investors digested a weaker-than-expected economic growth report and as Europe's debt crisis still loomed in the background. Dow Jones dropped 74 points, or 0.6%, S&P 500 slipped 2 points, or 0.2%. Nasdaq managed to gain ground, adding 11 points, or 0.4%.

Friday's slump came as investors reacted to the government's first reading on fourth-quarter gross domestic product. The United States economy picked up speed at the end of 2011, growing at an annual rate of 2.8%, as consumers increased their spending. But the data fell short of the 3.2% forecast.

Asian Markets

Today, the Asian markets are trading in the red with Strait times & KOSPI trading down by 0.8% and 0.7% respectively. Nikkei too is down by 0.6%. Hang Seng & China is down by 0.7% each. On the other hand the Taiwan markets are up by 2.8%.SGX Nifty is trading down by 43 points over Fridays close.

Currencies

The Indian Rupee on Friday appreciated by 77 paise to close at a near 12-week high of 49.31/32 vis-?-vis the US Dollar, driven by strong capital inflows into rising local stock markets. Forex dealers said sustained dollar selling by exporters amid weakness in the U.S. currency?s value overseas also boosted the rupee sentiment.

Outlook

Today markets could open on a weak note following negative global cues and trade in a range with negative bias. The immediate resistance stands at 5250 while the immediate downside support is at 5180 & 5160. Banks, Realty & IT could underperform.

Source- hdfc security, india infoline

Headbangers Ball!

Carrying on from last week, the week gone by saw the main indices moving up further. It was the fourth consecutive week of gains for the Sensex/Nifty as they took out the intermediate highs of 17004/5099 and also closed above the 200 day EMA. W-o-W, while the Sensex gained 2.82%, the Nifty was up by 3.09% over the same period. Reflecting the positive sentiments, market breadth was positive in all the four trading sessions of the week.

Key Events

Indian Markets

India's central bank unexpectedly cut the amount of deposits lenders need to set aside as reserves for the first time since 2009 and signaled future interest-rate cuts, joining BRIC nations in shielding growth. Stocks rose. The Reserve Bank of India reduced the cash reserve ratio to 5.5 percent from 6 percent, it said in a statement in Mumbai today. The move adds around 320 billion rupees ($6.4 billion) into lenders, it said

Cotton production in India, the second-biggest grower, will be lower than earlier forecast after diseases cut yields in the states of Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh, said the nation's textiles commissioner. The harvest may reach 34.5 million bales of 170 kilograms (375 pounds) each in the year that began Oct. 1, against 35.6 million bales estimated on Nov. 15, Textiles Commissioner A.B. Joshi told reporters in Mumbai after a meeting of the Cotton Advisory Board. India produced 32.5 million bales in 2010-2011.

The International Monetary Fund cut its forecast for global growth and warned that the European debt crisis threatens to derail the world economy. India is expected to grow 7 percent in 2012, 0.5 percentage point less than in September forecasts.

India's economic growth is weakening more than anticipated and inflation remains 'high' as the rupee's fall threatens to stoke price pressures, the central bank said, signaling it may leave interest rates unchanged. 'The growth slowdown, high inflation and currency pressures, complicate policy choices,' the Reserve Bank of India said in a report yesterday before its rate decision in Mumbai. The 'critical factors' ahead will be 'core inflation and exchange rate pass-through,' it said, adding that keeping the 'liquidity deficit' in acceptable limits is also a priority.

Outlook of the week

We would now be closing 2012 January on a firm note, irrespective what would happen in the couple of days left to close. The reason for this firm finish and the extent of the gains is not new and has been spoken a lot buy ‘pundits’ on TV. With earnings season looking decent so far, though bulk of the big names (SBI amongst them) reporting next week, it could prove very crucial. Especially for setting the tone for February 2012. My sense is that we could see a pull back of anywhere from 3%-5% due to the fact that SBI’s numbers could disappoint, also host of financial services/banks could post negative surprises. On the flip side, such a strong momentum that was set in so far, clearly warrants that we consolidate or pull back marginally and push higher over time. FY13 could prove to be a consolidation year from corporate and then we move onto higher ground with passing years.

Sources:

HDFC Securities Weekly wrap of the Market

Right Horizons Equity Desk for Outlook for the coming week

Trailblazing performance! – Can it sustain??

The Nifty Index just refuses to get bogged down now. EU worries, US slowdown worries or Asian worries; nothing has stopped this juggernaut through the month. Now we are up 12.5% for the month and conclusively. Today’s performing stars are all the high beta names and now the thing is getting a little worrisome, when all of the circumspect start to move and that too very fast.

The likes of SAIL, Jaiprakash and REL Infra have been moving like photons on steroids over the course of this week. Also what has been interesting is that there are more names cooling off quickly like HDFC Bank, HDFC, ITC and these are classic top names with good quality behind them. So if these guys settle down and start to move down, then it is only time before we start losing momentum on the crappy stuff.

For now, this month could be the best for a long time to send New year Greetings to client’s along with the month end reports. J

Nifty has reached at strong resistance level of 5200. It is likely nifty here sees some profit booking/ consolidation for few days before the next upmove. If manages to close above 5200 for couple of days, nifty could head higher to 5350 in near term. If not, profit booking could take nifty lower to 5000 levels.

Keeping it short. Enjoy the weekend.

Morning Be!!....Nifty crosses 5200 mark in early morning trade

Indian Markets

The frontline Indian stock indices advanced modestly in early minutes of trade on Friday, extending this week's rally after the RBI surprisingly slashed the cash reserve ratio (CRR) by an aggressive half a percentage point to ease liquidity conditions and boost credit.

The undercurrent today is also supported by a global rally after the Federal Reserve pledged to keep interest rates exceptionally low till the end of 2014 and indicated at a possible QE3 down the line to boost the US economy.

It seems as if most central banks are in accommodative mood to support domestic growth amid rising global uncertainties. This could potentially keep commodities, including crude and gold, firm. How much of this liquidity makes its way into equities (especially that of EMs) remains to be seen.

After the RBI’s 50 bps CRR cut, the Federal Reserve has surprised the markets by pledging to keep interest rates “exceptionally low” till late 2014. Besides, the Fed has also hinted at QE3 in future to mitigate the impact on the US from the euro area debt debacle. Meanwhile, even Brazil has hinted at further rate cuts.

US and European Markets

Talks on a debt swap to lower Greece’s borrowings and avert a collapse of the economy are scheduled to resume today.European finance ministers have insisted that Greek bondholders take bigger losses on their debt. The IMF has suggested that public holders of Greek bonds might have to increase their support. Private bondholders have agreed with European officials to implement a 50% cut in the face value of more than 200 billion euros ($262 billion) of Greek debt by voluntarily swapping bonds for new securities.

The euro fell today, snapping a four-day gain against the dollar on concern that Greece might default on its debt. The yen rose amid some safer haven buying. The dollar’s appreciation was limited.

Asian Markets

Today, the Asian markets are trading in the green with Strait times & KOSPI trading up by 0.3% each. Nikkei is trading up by 0.4%, while Hang Seng was up by 0.6%. The Chinese and Taiwan markets remained closed. SGX Nifty is trading higher by 49 points over Wednesday?s close.

Currencies

The Indian Rupee fell on Wednesday as US Dollar demand from oil importers for month-end payments offset a rise in the local share market, although traders said likely dollar sales by the central bank pulled it off the day's low.

Commodities

Oil was trading near the highest price in a week, heading for the first weekly gain in three. Gold traders are bullish for a fourth consecutive week.

Key events to watch for today

US : Fed Balance Sheet, Money Supply, GDP (Q-o-Q), Consumer Sentiment

India : WPI (Y-o-Y)

Outlook

The Indian Markets are likely to open higher following positive Asian cues. However, at higher levels it could witness some profit taking later during the day. Immediate resistance levels for the Nifty stand at 5215. Downside support to watch is at 5125. Among the sectoral indices, Auto, Consumer Durables and Metals could do well.

Faster, Higher, Stronger…

No it is yet time for the 2012 Olympics which are going to be held in London in a few weeks; but it feels like the Indian stock markets are already cheering for our participants for the event. This being a short week and earnings continuing to pour in, the market seem to have caught in some kind of rhythm. Last night’s fall in the US markets too, did not deter a very positive stance posed by the frontline counters. Sure there is continued volatility amongst the mid/small cap space and that is evident from the fact that the BSE 200 index names (notable amongst them) were trading at significant negative territory. Names such as IRB, Biocon, Tata Power, L&T etc were trading in red, however the financial institutions and Autos were zooming like racing on F1 tracks.

Today’s star performers were Tata Motors (this stock has been up 30% YTD, similar to other large cap infra names such as L&T) and host of high beta names such as REL Infra and JaiPrakash and the session itself marks a great victory of sorts for the Indian stock market since the momentum for the start of the year, week after week has been relentless; which has been the highlight.

With expiry today, the buying support was evident; however with tomorrow being an off day, and only one more trading day left for the week I expect very less volume on the markets for the rest of the week. Finally, we close the month next week and whoa! What a month this could turn out to be.

This definitely set the pace for the entire rest of 2012.

Happy Republic Day – India. Long Live the Republic.

Morning Be!!......Indices Up,after the RBI surprised the markets with a wider-than-expected 50 bps cut in the CRR

Indian Markets

The key Indian equity benchmarks have advanced in early morning trade, extending the previous session's stellar rally after the RBI surprised the markets with a wider-than-expected 50 bps cut in the CRR. Many experts see this as a precursor to a rate cut in the coming months.

However, the central bank has flagged several potential risks to its monetary stance. So, a reversal in its rate hike cycle may not materialise before its April policy meeting.

The undertone is also upbeat on the back of strong gains in other Asian markets like Japan and Australia despite a whole host of downbeat news. The January rally in part has been driven by robust inflows from the overseas investors. FIIs have poured in more than US$1bn into Indian equities after valuations dropped in the wake of last year's 25% fall in the BSE Sensex.

But, read the full RBI policy statement and there are ample reasons for one to be cautious. The biggest of them is the Government’s messy fiscal position. Whether the Centre obliges the RBI Governor and rectifies the situation on its finances remains to be seen. Given the context, Union Budget would be interesting this time around.

Major Results Today:

Alstom Projects, AP Paper, Asahi India, BEML, BOB, Deepak Fertilizers, Future Capital, Himatsingka Seide, Indian Hotels, IRB Infra, Sesa Goa, Union Bank, Vijaya Bank, REC, Patni computer, Oracle Financial, L&T Finance, Kirloskar Oil Engines, Tata Communications, Tata Global Beverages, Sterlite Technologies, PTC India Financial and JB Chemicals

US and European Markets

U.S. stocks ended mostly in the red on Tuesday as investors awaited progress on Greek debt talks and waded through another batch of corporate results. Dow Jones lost 33 points, or 0.3%, and S&P 500 shed 1 points, or 0.1%. Nasdaq managed to gain 2 points, or 0.1%.

European stocks fell Tuesday, as investors awaited further news on Greek debt negotiations, after euro-zone finance ministers rejected an offer from private bondholders to help restructure the country's debt. Britain's FTSE 100 slid 0.5%, DAX in Germany dropped 0.3% and France's CAC 40 lost 0.5%.

Asian Markets

Today, the Asian markets are trading in the green with Strait times & KOSPI trading up by 0.9% each. Nikkei is trading up by 1%. While the other Asian markets including Shanghai, Hang Seng & Taiwan are closed. SGX Nifty is trading higher by 37 points.

Currencies

The Indian Rupee erased most of its intraday gains on US Dollar demand from oil refiners on Tuesday, after hitting a 10-week high, driven by local shares that rose on expectations the central bank will shift its policy towards boosting growth.

Commodities

Among the metals, only Zinc ended higher by 1.6% while Nickel fell by 1.7%. Copper and Aluminium ended lower by 0.8% and 0.2% respectively. Oil for March delivery decreased 63 cents to settle at $98.95 a barrel. Gold futures for February delivery fell $13.80 to settle at $1,664.50 an ounce.

Key events to watch for today

India : IIP Core (YoY)

Outlook

The Indian Markets are likely to open higher following positive global cues. However, at higher levels it could witness some profit taking later during the day. Immediate resistance levels for the Nifty stand at 5200. Downside support to watch is at 5034. Among the sectoral indices, Banks, Capital Goods & Metals could do well.

Among the other potential risks include possible reversal in the USD-INR, crude oil and limited pass-through on domestic fuels. The short point is, one should not get carried away with January’s rally, which is partly driven by FII flows. Be vigilant and look at the bigger picture. In the short-term, things could turn bad again. Apart from the domestic risks mentioned, markets might be hit by unforeseen accidents on the external front, especially from Europe.

Dr. Subbu; thank you very much!

Finally we have a 50bps of CRR cut and a dovish policy stance from the guv and this paves way for the much needed rate cuts in the oncoming policy review in early March 2012. The market seems to have provided a thumbs up to the announcement since it was on expected lines and now a rate cut in the next six months with a meaningfully slower economic activity in the next quarter making a case for a fast and swift cut in lending rate a possibility.

The notable runner for the day were the banking and beta sectors running like sprinters in a marathon match. Though there is good news, the positive effects would be long term in nature and nothing to running like being chased by a lion. But stock markets offer extremes and like extreme sports, is not really for the faint hearted. So we have excellent performances for the month of January 2012 from even the bigges such as SBI, L&T and IDFC all of whom have delivered 25% returns since the start of the year. Now to put things in perspective these stock were down 50% for the entire 2011 and the recovery is incomplete unless they double from their lowest levels; which is still far away. Nevertheless some consolation.

With expiry in the F&O segment tomorrow, expect some volatility and this being a short week, we could have more volatility on Friday too.

All in all, looks like we clocked close to 12% MTD (month-to-date) this month and by the looks of it, we could be closing very strongly by the end of this month. With January 2012 starting on such as positive note, it is likely that the entire 2012 could well close in the positive for equities; though very early to predict, the possibility of a firm positive close is very high.

Morning Bell.......The market is eagarly awaiting the credit policy to be declared today

Indian Markets

The Sensex opened with 70 points gap up amid volatile trade on Tuesday. The market is eagarly awaiting the credit policy to be declared today. While opinions are mixed, some feel that the RBI is likely to cut cash reserve ratio (CRR), many still feel that for now the central bank will maintain a status quo with a dovish outlook

US & European Markets

U.S. stocks closed the day flat, after drifting above and below the break even line Monday. Investors grew jittery amid uncertainty surrounding Greek debt talks. Dow Jones closed down 12 points, or 0.1%. S&P 500 gained 0.6 points, or 0.05%. Nasdaq moved down 3 points, or 0.1%.

European stocks rose on hopes that attempts to address the latest phase of the Greek debt crisis would be successful. Britain's FTSE 100 closed up 0.9%, DAX in Germany added 0.4% and France's CAC 40 ticked up 0.6%.

All the Indian ADRs ended in the green except Wipro, which fell by 0.9% while Satyam gained the most 3.3%. Tata Communications and MNTL rose by 2.8% each while ICICI Bank rose by 1.5%. Dr Reddys and HDFC Bank ended higher by 1.4% and 1.2% respectively while Infosys rose by 1%. Tata Motors rose marginally by 0.1%.

Asian Markets

Today, among the Asian indices, only the Japanese index Nikkei is open and is trading higher by 0.4%. SGX Nifty is trading higher by 19 points.

Currencies

The Indian Rupee jumped 21 paise to a two-and-a-half month high of Rs 50.10/11 against the US Dollar on the back of sustained capital inflows and weakness in the American currency overseas.

Commodities

Oil for February delivery slipped $2.28 to $98.11 a barrel. Oil for March delivery, which becomes the active contract at the close of trade Friday, lost $2.21 to $99.33. Gold futures for February delivery added $9.50 to $1,664.00 an ounce.

Key events to watch for today

India - Third Quarter Review of Monetary Policy

Outlook for Today

Today, we expect the Indian Markets to open in the green and later trade in a range through the day. Support on Nifty is at 5,000 while resistance is at 5,100. Among the sectors, Bankex could do well today also while Oil & Gas stocks could underperform.

Sources- hdfc sec, moneycontrol

Waiting for Dr. Subbu

What started out in a forceful manner is now showing its true colors. The earnings season is under full swing and there are many losers here than those standing tall; and though revenue numbers are really very strong, profits are plunging like falling nine pins. Well, this is that phase of the business cycle where companies would try to raise prices, curtail expenses and try to secure profits. While doing this, typically revenues would stagnate and so would profits – in fact profits would move into losses for companies.

This is typically the bottom of the cycle and we are getting very close to it. The stock prices would typically take a final dip (over and above the 40% falls that many counters saw). This is the best time to shop around for bargains. I would imagine that the first half of the calendar is the period where this phenomenon would be wide spread. Beyond this, most of the bargain hunters would emerge and if the cycle turning around becomes eminent stock would start to move faster than you can capture or participate.

The denial mode for investors where they expect prices (stocks) to correct/fall before they buy again would come into play. Alas it becomes too late and it goes on higher and higher. Finally the cycle repeats on the upside as well. And there is a set of investor who like foxes (those foolish varieties) who always curse the sour grapes. They curse when the market falls that they don’t make money and they curse the market when stocks rise since they did not participate.

So it is important that we don’t become these foxes.

Today, was a breather sort of a day; a day where despite everything moving the index did not do much. The churn was evident. The banks were dancing and shaking a leg. Did Dr. Subbu whisper something in the ears of these bankers. God alone knows. Tomorrow, Dr. Subbu would announce some thing like – CRR, SLR and repo Reverse repo etc. up, down or holding same and the market would dance, frown and move.

Such is the importance of this man, since he could slow or hasten your decision on what you do with your money.

We are waiting.

Morning Be!!....Sensex opened with 72 points gap down following disappointing results from Index heavyweight Reliance

Indian Markets

The Sensex opened with 72 points gap down following disappointing results from Index heavyweight Reliance. The market recovered immediately to trade flat led by banks and technology stocks. Even the buyback offer from Reliance supported the market to cut losses.

The Sensex was down 17.17 points at 16,721.84 and the Nifty fell 6.3 points to 5,042.30.

Index heavyweight Reliance Industries lost over 4% due to disappointing results in Q3, but the downside capped led by company's buyback offer. The company's Q3 PAT fell 22% to Rs 4,440 crore QoQ; Board members of the company approved share buyback of Rs 10,440 crore and approved to buy back shares up to Rs 870/sh.

Anil Dhirubhai Ambani Group's stocks like Reliance Infra, Reliance Power and Reliance Capital were down 1-2%.

Maruti Suzuki and L&T were down 1% & 0.25%, respectively ahead of results today.

US & European Markets

U.S. investors were unwilling to place any big bets on Friday, as key Greek debt talks remain unresolved. Despite that, all three indexes still closed out the week more than 2% higher on robust economic data and strong earnings.

European stocks closed slightly down snapping a four-session run of gains, as investors lost patience with Greek debt negotiations. Britain's FTSE 100 ticked down 0.2%, while DAX in Germany slipped 0.2% and France's CAC 40 fell 0.2%.

The Indian ADRS ended mixed with Dr Reddys and Satyam losing 3% and 1.8% respectively. Wipro and ICICI Bank gained 4.5% and 3.8% respectively while Tata Communications and Infosys rose by 1.2% each. HDFC Bank fell by 1.4% while MTNL rose by 1%. Tata Motors fell by 0.1%.

Asian Markets

Today, among the Asian indices, only the Japanese index Nikkei is open and is trading higher by 0.1%. SGX Nifty is trading higher by 6 points.

Currencies

The Indian Rupee erased early gains on Friday hurt by dollar buying from oil refiners and importers, but losses in the greenback versus other majors kept a lid on further weakness.

Commodities

Among the metal prices, Nickel gained 2.2% while Copper lost 1.3%. Zinc fell by 0.8% while Aluminium rose by 0.2%. Oil for February delivery slipped $2.28 to $98.11 a barrel. Oil for March delivery, which becomes the active contract at the close of trade Friday, lost $2.21 to $99.33. Gold futures for February delivery added $9.50 to $1,664.00 an ounce.

Outlook for Today

Today, we expect the Indian Markets to open in the green and later witness some correction. Support on Nifty is at 4,980-4,900 while resistance is at 5,067-5,100. Among the sectors, Bankex could do well today also while FMCG stocks could under perform.

Source-: hdfc security, moneycontrol.com

Weekly Snapshot- Excellent start to the year so far; has RIL spoilt the party?

The week gone by saw the Nifty taking out its near term resistances of 4899 and moving up further. It was the third consecutive week of gains with the Nifty gaining 3.75% W-o-W. Reflecting the positive sentiments, market breadth was positive in three out of the five trading sessions of the week.

Key Events

Indian Markets

India's inflation eased sharply in December. The wholesale price index rose 7.47% in December from a year earlier, compared with November's 9.11% increase, as food prices fell. India's annual food inflation rates for the week ended January 7 continue to hover around negative territory for the third consecutive week at 0.42 percent, due to a sharp dip in the prices of onion, vegetables, potato and wheat, prompting the Reserve Bank of India or RBI to cut interest rates in its monitory policy review next week. India's December exports rose an estimated annual 6.7% to $25 bn, while imports for the month were at $37.8 bn, leaving a trade deficit of $12.8 bn. Exports between April-December rose 25.8% to $217.6 bn. Trade Secretary Rahul Khullar said that that the trade deficit for the full fiscal year that ends in FY12, was estimated between $155 bn to $160 bn. A UN report stated that India's economic growth rate would remain subdued at 7.7% in 2012 and 7.9% in 2013 as downside risks have increased, mainly on account of problems in Europe and the US.

Outlook of the week

The start to the year 2012 from an equity markets perspective has no doubts been an excellent one, however, extrapolating this into linear fashion and thinking that the market would kiss 5500 and then 6000 would only meaning fooling in front of the moving road roller. Especially post the RIL results yesterday and outlook for the company remaining as green as ever, the market and more particularly FII’s and DII’s could particularly remain very ruthless and kill the stock to sub 700 levels in no time. And with that we could be ending the rally or the sustenance change over the next couple of weeks. For a sustenance of the rally we need more firm earnings numbers and not just one off’s since in weak sentiment times any bad news is blown out of proportion exactly the same way the good news is blown in bullish times.

So no time to get carried away and being more alert and opportunist in the current environment is the key to tide and consolidate the position in early 2012 at least. Expect some pressure in the following week and ofcourse some heavy stomach wrenching churn.

Sources:

HDFC Securities Weekly wrap of the Market

Right Horizons Equity Desk for Outlook for the coming week

"Investment Options In 2012"...Chat with Mr. Anil Rego (CEO. Right Horizons)

Link-  http://www.rediff.com/getahead/2012/jan/20chat-with-anil-rego-money-investment-options-in-2012.html

Time-: Friday, January 20 between 4 pm and 5 pm.

Financial planning is like a chess game. An investor will have to think in advance about investment option s/he would use and plan according to the options available. The year 2011 had many turning points for the retail investor in India. Growth in the Indian economy is being driven by consumption arising from a confluence of factors: a rising middle class, increasing urbanization and favorable demographics. As a result, retail and consumer goods and financial services have been among the most favored sectors for investors. While the main investment themes remain the same, experts noted that some new pockets of growth are also available now, such as education, healthcare, e-commerce, information technology and insurance.

Keeping all these points in mind, the retail investor will have to equip herself/himself to plan for her/his investments in the year 2012. Although there are many options like mutual funds, gold investments, tax efficient plans, the investor will have to choose which plans would suit her/his needs the best. The start of a new year is the best time to start afresh and use practical solutions to achieve your financial goals.

If you too are among the many who are confused as to which are the points to be kept in mind while choosing your investment option or are wondering which new avenues you must invest in this year then do join us for a chat with our financial expert, Anil Rego on Friday, January 20 between 4 pm and 5 pm.

About Anil Rego

Anil Rego is the Founder & CEO of Right Horizons, an end-to-end investment advisory and wealth management firm with multi-metro presence.

Morning Bell....Indian stock indices have extended their week's rally in early morning trade

Indian Markets

The Indian stock indices have extended their week's rally in early morning trade, with the NSE Nifty firming above 5000 and the BSE Sensex crossing the 16,700 mark. The undercurrent remains positive on the back of strong inflows into Indian shares and debt this month. Also, there are signs of some cooling in inflation, providing ample room to the RBI to unload its series of rates hikes. The Government has also taken a few encouraging steps to push attract FDI and lift economic growth.

Finally, the overseas markets have been sending positive vibes all through the month. Barring the mass downgrade of eurozone members by the S&P, there has not been any major bad news from Europe or elsewhere. On the contrary, economic data coming out of the US, China and Germany have been encouraging.

The series of debt auctions by the fiscally strained euro area nations have also went off well. Greece is also likely to seal a deal on the proposed debt swap with the private creditors. So, all these ingredients have helped support the risk rally this month. It remains to be seen of the momentum can be sustained going forward

US and European Markets

U.S. stocks advanced for a third straight session on Thursday, rising to fresh six-month highs, thanks to solid gains in financial shares. Dow Jones added 46 points, or 0.4%, S&P 500 rose 6 points, or 0.5%, Nasdaq composite increased 19 points, or 0.7%. All three indexes closed at the highest levels since July.

European stocks rose on Thursday to the highest level since the beginning of last August, as Spain and France successfully sold EUR14.6 billion in government bonds. Britain's FTSE 100 ticked up 0.7%, DAX in Germany rose 1% and France's CAC 40 added 2%.

Asian Markets

Today, the Asian markets are trading in the green with Shanghai & Hang Seng trading higher by 0.4% each. Nikkei & Strait Times are trading up by 1.3% & 0.5% respectively, while Kospi is up by 0.9%. SGX Nifty is trading higher by 26 points.

Currencies

The Indian Rupee extended its gains to the sixth straight session vs. the US Dollar on Thursday, driven by robust dollar inflows and a surge in local equities, as risk appetite improved on news the IMF would step up its role in tackling the euro zone debt crisis.

Commodities

Among the metals, Copper gained the most (2.4%) followed by Nickel, which ended higher by 1.1%. Zinc and Aluminium rose by 0.8% and 0.2% respectively. Oil for February delivery slipped 20 cents to settle at $100.39 a barrel. Gold futures for February delivery ticked down $5.40 to settle at $1,654.50 an ounce, losing momentum from earlier gains.

Outlook

The Indian Markets are likely to open higher following positive global cues. However, at higher levels it could witness some profit taking later during the day. Immediate upside targets for the Nifty remain at 5100. Downside supports to watch are at 4990-4931. Among the sectoral indices, Banks, Realty & Metals could do well.

Sources- hdfc security, india  infoline

First cracks; but bada bhai to rescue?

Today’s session looked liked some serious cuts were in the offing in the earlier part of the day; however, with the “bada bhai” Mukesh throwing his weight around, who can mess around. RIL appears set to announce a Buy Back program in the upcoming Q3FY12 result announcement this Friday, 20th January 2012 and the stock has hit 5% uptick almost easily through the day ending at a respectable INR 780 or thereabouts.

By the looks of it, we think that there appears that the buyback price should be in the range of INR 875-950 range and that would make a statement to the world telling that the ‘bhai’ actually thinks his company is more valuable than the market is pricing it. This also could just be a confidence booster; for starters if the share price drops then actually the buyback would be in place, and if it rises in expectation, then he actually need not make the full buy back. Either ways ‘bhai’ wins.

As a result of the surge in RIL share price today, the Nifty index stayed afloat for most part of the day since RIL alone held 20 pts, in a sessions where the index was down marginally 10points, thereby protecting a larger downside.

What is interesting though to see is the extent to which this fall can be stemmed by the big mover of the day. My sense is that we could be struggling to keep higher levels since even with nice earnings being reported by the IT biggies, we are not holding on to levels achieved. What happens when the banks report and ugly number, if at all, come out is everyone’s guess.

All, in all looks like an interesting build up of things to come; looks like.

"Investing in 2012-What should be the investment strategy for the new year?"......Chat with Mr. Anil Rego ( CEO, Right Horizons)

                                             Welcome to Chat@moneycontrol.com.

                                                          18 Jan- 16:00hrs

Will market do better in 2012 compare to 2011?

Where should we see Indian economy?

What we can expect from the budget?

Do you have same questions in your mind????????????

We would like you to participate in the live chat with Mr. Anil Rego { CEO & Founder, Right Horizons} & you can plan your investment decision for 2012.

Faster, higher & stronger!

Over the last 11 trading sessions in January 2012 so far, only two or so marginal negative closes and today was a convincing pull shot over long on for six! What a T20 match this could turn out to be. The Shewags & Dhonis (read Jaiprakash & Tata Motors) are leading the attack from the front. Jaiprakash & Tata Motors have provided 20.85% & 21.45% returns in just 11 trading days so far in 2012 while the Nifty Index has provided only 7.65% during the same period.

Well, there are other scorers too, and the list in the 50 heros who are racing is long. These two are standing out. Yeah, the previous match (2011) was a mini disaster for these players, but if this continues then we are looking at some sort of redemption from these stocks.

The match has just begun and there is lot to come in the coming weeks / months. Near terms the earnings season has just started, so this is not the right time to uncork the bubbly and party. By mid-February 2012, will we know where we are heading amongst other things. In between, we also have to contend with the Dr. Subbu effect which returns (like a comet) on January 24, 2012.

Today a lot of beta got traded and I now wonder what we would be closing this week like. I only hope the positive momentum set this week retains for another three days, since with this; we could be closing on a really firm note. Plus, if the Dr. relents and cuts rate by a minor margin, then we could have it all the heading to 5100.

I would then turn on with caution and assess the situation. But for now, let us let our hair down and let the music flow.

Morning Be!!.......Indian stock indices have posted smart gains in early morning trade

Indian Markets

The frontline Indian stock indices have posted smart gains in early morning trade, as investors welcome better-than-expected fourth-quarter GDP growth in China and a successful debt sale in France. Besides, inflation back home has cooled off considerably amid increasing expectations of a reversal in the RBI's hawkish monetary policy stance sooner or later.

Auto, Consumer Durables, Realty, Bankex, Power, Oil and Gas, IT, PSU, FMCG indices are the gainers.

The momentum seems to be in favour of the bulls so far, with most constituents of the main indices flaring up and most sectoral indices on the BSE and NSE advancing. The market breadth is positive as well.

Banking, Auto, Metals, Realty, Capital Goods and Power indices on the BSE are up 1-2%. The remaining sectoral indices on the BSE have gained 0.5% to 1%.

News of the day

- GoM to discuss FDI in aviation today

- Dewan Housing approves acquisition of stake in 'unlisted NBFC'

- Coal India to invite fresh bids for Mozambique blocks

- NCC mulls Infra arm, bond issue to raise money - DNA

-Times group in race to buy Neo cricket, Neo Sports, also eyes TV9

US and European Markets

The US markets were closed on Monday in observance of the Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday.

European stocks closed slightly higher Monday, shrugging off Standard & Poor's downgrade of nine eurozone governments. Britain's FTSE 100 gained 0.4%, the DAX in Germany gained 1.3% and France's CAC 40 added 0.9%.

Asian Markets

Barring Shanghai, which is trading marginally lower by 0.1%, all the other Asian indices are trading in the green with Hang Seng & Nikkei trading higher by 1.5% & 0.6% respectively. Strait Times & Kospi are trading higher by 0.6% & 1.3% respectively, while Taiwan is trading in the green by 0.7%. SGX Nifty is trading lower by 2 points.

Currencies

The Indian Rupee reversed all early losses on Monday to end higher stoked by US Dollar inflows and boosted by a rebound in the local share market.

Commodities

Among the metals, Aluminium, Copper & Zinc gained 0.5%, 0.6% & 0.5% respectively, while Nickel ended lower by 1.7%.

Outlook

Today, the Indian market could open on a flat note and inch up later during the day. With the markets ending higher yesterday, the underlying trend remains up. Immediate upside targets are at 4910. Crucial supports to watch on the downside are at 4840-4800. Among the sectoral indices, Banking & IT are looking good, while Oil & Gas is looking weak & could underperform.

Sources-hdfcsec, india infoline

The EURO contagion does not effect!

Just like in those Murphy’s law that we read “If things are going to go wrong, they will” no matter what you do. The corollary is also true; “if things are going to go right, they will”. Today session was fraught with a lot of heaviness of the bad news coming out during the weekend. The EURO nations being downgraded, the economy yet to warm up to the earnings being released. Infosys earnings not being enthusiastic from market perspective.

Yet the market today meandered between positive and negative and closed in the Green. Howz that, for a change. It now firmly moves, albeit slowly towards a firm closing for the month of January 2012. Now a great deal also depends upon how the other Big Brothers (TCS/RIL/ICICI/HDFC Bank) report their earnings cards.

I have a feeling that we could be drifting towards Mt. 5000 over the course of the next couple of weeks if all these minor ambushes are taken care of.

All in all, with each passing day, though the vulnerability exists, a great start so far to the year 2012 from a markets perspective. Hopefully, no Voodoo, happens till expiry and we should open the first 15 overs of the match with a good run rate. Elsewhere in Aussieland, there lies no hope. However, that is a different story altogether.

Morning Bell !!......The Sensex opened 70 points down following weak Asian cues, reacting to the spate of downgrades in nine eurozone countries by rating agency S&P last weekend

Indian Markets

Indian frontline indices fell marginally in the opening deals, tracking a broadbased decline in Asian markets after the Standard & Poor's downgrade as many as nine Eurozone nations, raising fears over the region's long-running debt crisis and its implications for the global economy.

IT, Teck, FMCG indices are the gainers. Power, PSU, HC,Auto, Oil and Gas, Realty, Bankex, Metal indices are the losers.

Wipro, Bharti Airtel, TCS, Infosys, Maruti Suzki, were among the notable leaders in the Sensex and the Nifty.

RIL, ICICI Bank, Coal India, Ranbaxy, L&T, Sun Pharma, HDFC Bank, SBI, Tata Motors, Tata Steel,Hero MotoCorp, HDFC were among the notable losers in the Sensex and the Nifty.

US and European Markets

U.S. stocks finished in the red Friday as anxious investors braced for a string of credit rating downgrades for eurozone countries. JPMorgan Chase's disappointing fourth-quarter earnings also weighed on the market. Dow Jones dropped 49 points, or 0.4%, S&P 500 fell 6 points, or 0.5%, and Nasdaq composite lost 14 points, or 0.5%.

European stocks closed slightly lower, amid downgrade concerns. Britain's FTSE 100 fell 0.5%, DAX in Germany dropped 0.6% and France's CAC 40 shed 0.1%. Standard & Poor's has downgraded the credit ratings of nine euro area governments, including AAA-rated France and Austria.

Asian Markets

Today the Asian indices are trading in the red with Nikkei and Kospi trading lower by 1.5% each while Strait Times is down 1.1%. Hang Seng and Taiwan are down by 1% each while Shanghai is down 0.8%. SGX Nifty is trading lower by 46 points.

Currencies

The Indian rupee surged to a near six-week high against the U.S. dollar Friday but gave up most of the gains in late trade on aggressive dollar buying by oil importers and as the euro weakened after an underwhelming Italian debt auction. Rupee ended 5 paise or 0.1% higher against US Dollar to Rs.51.52.

Key events to watch for today

China GDP

India Monthly WPI

Outlook

Today, the Indian market is likely to open on a negative note following weak Asian cues. Later it could take cues from the monthly inflation data to be announced today. Among the sectoral indices, Banking, Auto and Realty stocks could underperform while Healthcare and FMCG could do well.

Sources- hdfcsec, india infoline

Weekly Market Snapshot.....The Nifty broke out of the 4686-4800 trading range in the process and gained 2.51% W-o-W.

Rally continues

Markets ended with gains for the second consecutive week. The Nifty broke out of the 4686-4800 trading range in the process and gained 2.51% W-o-W. Reflecting the positive sentiments, market breadth was positive in all the five trading sessions of the week.

The biggest gainers from the CNX 500 were Uttam Steel, LITL, IB Power and Rel Industrial Infra. The biggest losers were Sterling Bio, Indraprastha Gas, Infy, TCS and Network 18.

Indian Markets

Food prices fell for the second consecutive week as food inflation remained in the negative zone at (-)2.90 % for the week ended December 31, 2011. Food inflation, as measured by the Wholesale Price Index (WPI), stood at (-)3.36 % in the previous week. It was above 19 % in the corresponding week of 2010.

India's industrial production grew 5.9 per cent in November, aided by a robust 6.6 per cent growth in manufacturing output while production of capital goods continued to fall. Mining output growth remained in the negative territory in November too (-4.4 per cent as against -6 per cent in October and 6.9 per cent in November 2010) while capital-goods production, an indicator of business investment, shed 4.6 per cent, having risen 25.7 per cent a year earlier.

India's non-food credit offtake went up by just 16.1% to Rs 44.99 lakh crore during the year ended December 30, 2011, reflecting the impact of the high interest rate regime.

Key Sectoral Movement

Barring BSE IT, which fell by 6.9% all the other sectoral indices ended in the green. The top gainers were Realty, Metals, Power and Capital Goods, which rose by 13.1%, 9.8%, 8.6% and 8.5% respectively.

Outlook of the week

With the markets ending with gains for the second consecutive week, the short term trend continues to remain up. Immediate upside targets for the Nifty in the coming week are at 4910. Crucial supports to watch on the downside are at 4840-4800.

Sources- hdfcsec

Morning Be!!......Indian Indices trading in green

Indian Markets

The BSE Sensex was 16,122, up 85 points over the previous close. It had earlier touched a day’s high of 16,168 and Today’s low of 16,107. It opened at 16,144.

NSE Nifty was quoting 4,854, up 22 points over the previous close. It has earlier touched a day’s high of 4,868 and a day’s low of 4,851. It opened at 4,861.

Infosys, Wipro, TCS, Sun Pharma, M&M, L&T, BHEL, NTPC, SBI, Coal India, Tata Motors, Tata Power, Sterlite Inds, Hindalco Inds, Tata Steel, , were among the notable leaders in the Sensex and the Nifty.

Hero MotoCorp, GAIL India, HDFC, DRREDDY, ITC were among the notable losers in the Sensex and the Nifty.The BSE Small-Cap and BSE Mid-Cap index was trading flat at 1%.

FMCG, Bankex, PSU, Realty, Metal, Oil and Gas, Auto, Power, IT and Oil and Gas indices are the gainers.

US and European Markets

Stocks sputtered on Thursday, but managed to close the day slightly higher. Dow Jones closed up 22 points, or 0.2%. S&P 500 gained 3 points, or 0.2%. Nasdaq moved up 14 points, or 0.5%.

Asian Markets

Today the Asian indices are trading in the green except Shanghai, which is down by 0.4%. Nikkei is trading higher by 1.1% while Kospi and Strait Times are up 0.6% each. Hang Seng and Taiwan are up 0.3% each. SGX Nifty is trading marginally lower by 4 points.

Currencies

The Indian rupee closed higher on Thursday vis-a-vis the US Dollar as foreign funds continued to invest in local debt, though weak domestic shares and dollar demand from oil importers put a lid on gains. The Reserve Bank of India probably sold dollars around the 51.74 rupee level in late trading, which further supported the currency, traders said.

Commodities

Among the metals, Copper gained 3.4% while Zinc rose by 1.6%. Aluminium and Nickel ended higher by 1.3% and 1% respectively. Oil for February delivery lost $1.73 to $99.14 a barrel. Gold futures for February delivery gained $8.10 to $1,647.70 an ounce.

Outlook

Today, the Indian market is likely to open on a flat to negative note and remain rangebound. Support on Nifty is at 4,800 while resistance is at 4,910. Among the sectoral indices, IT and Oil & Gas stocks could underperform while Metals and FMCG could do well.

Sources- hdfc security, India infoline

Morning Be!!.......Indian indices slipped in the early morning trade, hurt by the disappointing Q3 results in USD terms from IT major Infosys.

Indian Markets

The frontline Indian stock indices have slipped in the early morning trade, hurt by the disappointing Q3 results in USD terms from IT major Infosys. The Bangalore-based software giant has also announced a muted guidance for the fourth quarter.

The Infosys stock is down sharply along with other IT peers like TCS, Wipro and HCL Tech. The IT index on both BSE and NSE is down more than 4%. If you keep aside the IT basket, the rest of the market is not doing that badly. There are no major losers in the two main equity benchmarks except the software companies.

Markets took a breather after Tuesday’s stellar rally as investors appeared reluctant to commit ahead of the IIP data and Infosys results. IIP for November is expected to rebound from a disastrous October reading. One has to see if there is any upward revision of the October print of -5.1%.

Weekly food inflation is also due today. It is likely to stay in the negative zone, mostly owing to the statistical phenomenon called ‘base effect’. more important will be the inflation report for December, which is due on Monday.

US and European Markets

U.S. stocks recovered from earlier losses to end little changed on Wednesday as concerns about Europe's weak economy and debt crisis weighed on the market. The Dow Jones industrial average lost 13 points, or 0.1%, to end at 12,449. The S&P 500 edged up less than 1 point to 1,292. The Nasdaq gained 8 points, or 0.3%, to 2,711.

European equity markets dropped on Wednesday, as energy stocks fell along with crude prices and as concerns about the euro-zone sovereign debt crisis weighed on sentiment. While DAX ended lower by 0.2%, FTSE & CAC ended lower by 0.5% & 0.2% respectively.

Asian Markets

Today the Asian indices are trading on a mix note. While Shanghai & Nikkei are trading lower by 0.6% & 0.7% respectively. Hang Seng, Kospi & Strait Times are trading in the green by 0.2% each. Taiwan is trading marginally higher by 0.1%. SGX Nifty is trading down by 6 points.

Currencies

The Indian Rupee snapped a three-day rising streak to end down on Wednesday, after see-sawing through the day, tracking choppy shares, with Dollar demand from oil importers and a weak euro weighing. A fragile European economy could further hurt sentiment and keep investors at bay, dragging the rupee lower against the dollar in coming days.

Commodities

Among the metals, Aluminium & Copper gained 0.3% & 0.7% respectively, while Zinc & Nickel ended lower by 0.2% and 0.1% respectively. Oil for February delivery slipped 51 cents to end at $101.71 a barrel. Gold futures for February delivery rose $9 to $1,640.50 an ounce.

Key events to watch for today

India - IIP

India -WPI

Outlook

Today, the Indian market are likely to open marginally lower and takes cues from the Infosys Q3FY12 results, the IIP numbers for the month of November and weekly inflation data due today. Among the sectoral indices, Realty, Metals & Banks look good, while FMCG could underperform. Better than expected results from Infosys could drive the IT index higher today.

Sources- HDFC SEC, India Infoline

The Opening batsman comes to bat tomorrow!

The market is just waiting like the stadium which is full just before the 1st ball of the match is about to be bowled. Tomorrow Infosys Technologies opens it account on the first delivery of the match. And the market is waiting to see how confident the batsman is. And with the opening for tomorrow, we will then have all the participants of the parade coming in to show their wares.

If the firmness of the session preceding today is any indication and also today’s session; it seems apparent that we should be having a bang of an earnings season. Not because there will be absolute strength in the earnings per se, but because expectations are so beaten down that relatively we could be saying – “not bad” after all.

Today’s session was an eerie calm session which typically precedes the excitement that would begin soon. Am sure, all of the analyst and pundits on TV channels would be jumping and taking the hairs to the final shreds to see what lies ahead for the IT industry in particular and market in general tomorrow. Of course the print guys would bombard us with a long transcript and analysis a day later.

A very interesting file which stacks up while the Nifty has remained where it was in the past 5 months the constituents were all over the place. This makes the life of Fund managers (including – your’s truly) very difficult. The easiest way would be to buy the ETF and sleep tight. But of course we cannot do that and besides in challenge lies opportunity. But get it wrong and your are toast.

So my sense is this opportunity is going to be present in the next 6 months too; READ: that there will be enough things that will go right and wrong with Nifty companies and am sure, like in the past, we would get it right this time too.

So bear with us; and yes please don’t miss this bus. I am sure that by December 2012 we could be seeing double digit (high teens) type of returns for equity asset class. So please pitch in and get more money into this.

Morning Be!!.....Indian stock indices appear to be in 'no-man's-land' in early morning trade

Indian Markets

The frontline Indian stock indices appear to be in 'no-man's-land' in early morning trade after a strong rally in the preceding session, as investors prefer to stay on the sidelines ahead of an important trading day on Thursday. Markets will digest the latest data on industrial production besides results from finance major HDFC and IT titan Infosys.

Despite the sluggish trend in Large-Cap shares, the market breadth is positive due to persistent gains in the broader indices. The BSE Small-Cap and the BSE Mid-Cap indices have gained for a third successive session this week. The two broader market benchmarks are up ~0.5% each at the moment.For India, the most eagerly awaited events this month is the January 24 RBI policy meeting. Meanwhile, the prospects for the Indian economy continue to look rather glum in the face of mixed bag macro-economic numbers.

US and European Markets

U.S. stocks advanced Tuesday, on the back of gains in global markets, as investors grew optimistic following upbeat comments about Europe and a decent start to quarterly corporate results. Dow Jones rose 70 points, or 0.6%, and S&P 500 added 11 points, or 0.9%. Both indexes finished at their highest levels since July. Nasdaq composite increased 26 points, or 1%.

Tuesday's broad move higher came as investors found comfort in Fitch Rating's comments about Europe being on the right path toward solving its debt problems.

The Census Bureau reported that wholesale inventories for the month of November rose 0.1%.

Asian Markets

Today the Asian indices are trading in the green except Kospi and Shanghai, which are down by 0.3% and 0.2% respectively. Nikkei and Hang Seng are trading higher by 0.2% each while Strait Times and Taiwan are up by 0.1% each. SGX Nifty is trading higher by 4.5 points.

Currencies

The Indian rupee rose to a one-month high against the US Dollar on Tuesday, boosted by a spate of fund inflows from overseas investors into high-yielding local debt. The gains were accentuated by thin volumes, highlighting the sharp swings that have resulted from a recent central bank rule limiting speculative trades in the currency market. Also comments from a federal government official that Moody's had upgraded India's short-term country ceiling on foreign currency bank deposits boosted sentiments.

Commodities

Among the metals, Aluminium gained the most (3.7%) followed by Zinc, which rose by 3%. Nickel and Copper ended higher by 2.8% and 1.9% respectively.Oil for February delivery added 93 cents to settle at $102.24 a barrel. Gold futures for February delivery gained $23.40 to settle at $1,631.50 an ounce.

Outlook

Today, the Indian market is likely to open on a flat to positive note. 4,800 on the nifty holds as a strong support and until this level gets breached the uptrend could continue. Among the sectoral indices, Metals and IT stocks could do well.

Source- HDFC SECURITY, India Infoline