March 29, 2011

Global cues 29th-march 2011

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T20 March-29th

Global Markets

1. S&P 500 was on a positive trend driven by optimism regarding company earnings. SP Chart

2. US Dollar: Strengthened after US consumer spending for the month of February was better than forecasted. US Dollar Chart

3. Crude prices saw a dip in small dip in prices on news that Libya may begin oil exports in less than a week. Crude Oil Chart

4. Gold prices dip on the back of profit booking and subdued market demand. Gold Chart


Economy

5. India’s marine exports to Japan are expected to take a hit due to the earthquake, tsunami and nuclear crisis.

6. Government exempt coking coal from customs duty in an attempt to reign in prices, but immediate impact on steel prices is not expected.

7. India’s Forex reserves up $ 1.67 Bn to $ 303.51 Bn due to healthy increase in foreign currency assets.

8. Finance minister is confident that India will achieve 9% growth rate in coming years due to financial sector reforms, revamping of direct and indirect tax structures and the introduction of the Goods an services tax (GST).

9. Government worried about oil supplies as two thirds for the country’s oil imports are from the turmoil ridden Northern Africa and the Middle East.


Indian Markets

10. Nifty experiences steep rise. Nifty Chart

11. FIIs purchased shares worth a net Rs. 7,748.3 cr from start of the month (March) to Date, 2011; Domestic funds bought shares worth a net Rs 36,188.6 cr for the same period.


Sector

12. Global oil majors showed little interest in Indian oil and gas exploration licensing bid due to dim track record of commercial discoveries and sluggish bureaucracy.

13. Synthetic rubber industry in India is booming as demand rose by 13% to outstrip supply.

14. Indian Government looks keen to protect Indian auto companies from cheaper imported vehicles from Europe. EU states are pushing for reduction in duty which will make cars imported from Europe cheaper in India.

15. Government is working on a scheme that will offer incentives to domestic organised retailers if they tie up with farmer co-operatives in order to reduce wastage and check volatility in food prices.

16. PE Giants Goldman Sachs, Ashmore, Everstone and a few other funds are coming together to form a Non Banking Finance Company (NBFC) which will focus on corporate lending.


Stocks

17. Tata Motors becomes first Indian auto company to manufacture 1 Lakh commercial vehicles in a financial year. TATA MOTORS Chart

18. JSW Energy and GVK Power could join hands to bid for coal assets of Australia’s Hancock Coal which is valued at $ 2.7 Billion. JSW Energy Chart

19. Cargill India ink deal to acquire Marico’s sunflower oil brand Sweekar for Rs. 60 Crore. Marico Chart


Quotes

20. “The best way for a person to have happy thoughts is to count his blessings and not his cash” ~Author Unknown

March 24, 2011

T20 23rd March 2011

Global Markets

1. S&P 500 looking positive on the back of good economic news in relation to company numbers and a decrease in unemployment figures. S&P Chart

2. US Dollar: Negative trend expected to continue as global crude prices put pressure on USD. Dollar Chart

3. Crude prices on the rise again as tensions in Libya and the Middle East rise. Crude Oil Chart

4. Gold remains a safe haven as global unrest unfolds. Gold Chart

5. Nikkei witnessed a dramatic fall due to the earthquake and Tsunami, but this week saw a positive movements as investors saw buying opportunities at lower levels.NIKK Chart


Economy

6. Outlook for the Indian economy is not very positive is crude prices and inflation continues to rise, could prevent government from achieving its target growth rate of 9%.

7. Food inflation eases to 9.42%, as headline wholesale inflation grew from 8.23% to 8.31%.

8. Advance tax rises 30% in Jan-March, 2011 which is a key indicator of the robust health of the Indian Economy.

9. Exports from SEZ up 46.7% during Apr- Dec of current fiscal year.

10. Government introduces General sales tax (GST) bill in parliament which would replace a number of taxes being levied by the central and state governments.



Indian Markets

11. Nifty remains range bound. Nifty Chart

12. FIIs purchased shares worth a net Rs. 1,371.3 cr from start of the month (March) to Date, 2011; Domestic funds bought shares worth a net Rs 4344.6 cr for the same period.


Sector

13. State oil firms see red as they are losing Rs. 4.08 BN in revenues daily.

14. Automobile firms are positive on the future as they expect the industry to grow by 15% to 17% in FY12.

15. Jet airways and Jet lite combined emerged as the Indian aviation sector market leader. Jet combined has a market share of 26.1%, Kingfisher is second with 19% and Indigo is third with 18.7%.

16. Healthcare companies are happy as the government rolls back the 5% service tax imposed on treatment in private hospitals.



Stocks

17. Ranbaxy is feeling the heat as Mylan sue the US FDA to block lipitor launch. Ranbaxy Chart

18. RIL announced that gas output from key fields may fall by as much as 12% next year due to complicated operating procedures. RIL Chart

19. Mahindra Satyam slapped with Rs 616 crore Income Tax bill on fictitious income. Mahindra Satyam Chart


Quotes

20. “There are three faithful friends - an old wife, an old dog, and ready money.” –Benjamin Franklin.

Global Cues 23rd March 2011

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March 15, 2011

EoD Market commentary 15/3

‘Bada Bhai’ to the rescue!

Asia has opened the day with total blood loss on the back of Nuclear meltdown fears and possible underestimation of the extent of damage that had been meted out by ‘Mother Nature’ over the last weekend. Financials stocks took the maximum beating in the Japanese markets and the mayhem just spread to entire Asian region on fears of possible radiation leak and impact on neighboring countries/population.



In India we opened of a very tragic note – down almost 3.0% in early trade and steadily climbing the mountain of abyss that had been created due to Japan and the sentiment. Finally shares came back but must admit that the comeback has been less than convincing. The lone performer of the day was the ‘Bada Bhai’ counter which was, at it’s peak, up by 3.0% settling 1.75% up over previous close. This was on the back of sustaining crude prices and demand of conventional energy and stiffer safeguards on the Nuclear energy plants across the globe with the kind of disaster that shook Japan.



Losses in today’s trade were across the board with the Bank Nifty losing around 1.55% and the CNX IT losing close to 2.0% on the rub off on the potential loss of Japanese business for IT companies. Losses extended on the Auto and capital goods counters on anticipation and higher probability of rate hike by the RBI on March 17th 2011 policy meeting. This coupled with higher crude prices is a bit of a jolt for the Auto companies. The recently untouched excise duty now appears a thing of distant past. Such is the weight of sentiment on the markets.



I am attaching a WSJ article on how things are progressing in Japan and it indeed a heart rending read. I was appalled with the description of things by the author on how lack of electricity, water and non-availability of traffic signals is causing havoc on the Japanese life conditions. It is indeed how fast things can change in one’s life is a thing that I cannot but get overwhelmed.



On a lighter note, all Japanese driver should be bought to Bangalore for a 15-day crash course on driving in signal less roads and poorly lit conditions during night to brave the conditions in Japan. We could have a few pot holes thrown in for excitement during the course.



Finally, my heart reaches out not to those that were killed by this tsunami/earthquake; since for them the pain has eternally ended, but for those who are left behind and will have to deal with the trauma of lose of the loved ones and/or the habitat which has been destroyed completely. Spare a thought, cause nature can hit anybody beyond recognition.



For all the poor souls who lost their lives. RIP.

ASIA NEWS | MARCH 15, 2011, 2:53 A.M. ET

Death Toll Surges as Rescuers Scramble

Northern Communities Suffer Food and Water Shortages, While Markets, Economy Reel; U.S. Forces Step Up Assistance

Search-and-rescue efforts recovered more bodies in hard-hit areas across a broad swath of the northeastern coast of Japan's main island on Tuesday. Meanwhile, the nation's humanitarian and nuclear crisis appeared to take a turn for the worse four days after a historic earthquake rocked the archipelago and shut down the world's third-largest economy. The latest figures from Japan's National Police Agency showed some 2,414 people confirmed dead and 3,118 others missing.

Those numbers are expected to rise as aid workers reach more devastated areas. Rescue workers struggled to get food and water to Japan's ravaged northern communities on Monday as the impact of Friday's quake continued to ripple throughout the nation. It raised new fears about its nuclear facilities, shaking its financial markets and bringing big chunks of its economy to a halt.

The U.S. Geological Survey updated the magnitude of the earthquake to 9.0 from 8.9, which it said made the quake Japan's largest since modern recordings began 130 years ago.

National broadcaster NHK reported that more than 450,000 people had moved to temporary shelters in the affected areas.

The death toll in Japan climbed Monday as rescues scrambled to help survivors and more than a half a million people sought temporary shelters and food aid. Meanwhile, the risk of a nuclear meltdown is rising. Eduardo Kaplan has the latest details.



Reuters

Emiko Ohta, 52, can't bear to look at the debris that was her home in Kuji, Iwate prefecture. A day after sowing widespread confusion by announcing—and then postponing—rolling blackouts in Tokyo and other parts of eastern Japan to conserve energy, Tokyo Electric Power Co. started the planned power outages on Tuesday morning in bedroom communities in greater Tokyo.

A second round of blackouts in other areas was set to begin later Tuesday morning. The lack of planning was apparent in the haphazard manner in which the power outages were carried out. The blackouts were total—even critical infrastructure such as hospitals and traffic lights weren't spared. Many communities seemed unable to dispatch enough police or other authorities to direct traffic. In the town of Ageo in Saitama Prefecture, live footage of major intersections taken by helicopter and broadcast on Japanese television depicted chaotic scenes during the Tuesday morning rush hour. With no traffic lights or police to direct vehicles, large trucks and buses awkwardly alternated the right of way at a major transportation artery with groups of passenger cars, pedestrians and people on bicycles. East Japan Railway Co. and other railway companies operated more trains in the Tokyo area than they did Monday. However, services remained well below normal levels. Investors in Japanese markets registered their waning confidence in the Japanese economy's ability to bounce back from the disaster.

Then, following the comments from Prime Minister Naoto Kan during the break on radiation risks, stocks plunged further. By midafternoon, the average was down 14% at 8236.95. Rescue workers, meanwhile, tried to bring supplies to thousands of residents of towns along the northeastern coast of Japan that were among the worst-hit communities. Survivors told the nation via television that they didn't have power and were running out of food and water. People atop one building had written a huge character for "water" on the roof, so it could be seen by rescue helicopters. Information on the progress of relief efforts was sketchy.

A spokesman for Japan's Self-Defense Forces said they were in charge only of distributing food and water to regional supply points. He added that they didn't know how much had reached needy communities since regional governments were supposed to take the supplies from there. Miyoko Sugiyama, who lived a few blocks from the beach near the hard-hit city of Sendai, said she was happy to escape with her husband and 14-year-old dog."There were 2,700 homes" in her neighborhood, she said. "Now there are only a few left."

U.S. military forces, meanwhile, continued to amass in and around Japan as part of Operation Tomodachi (which means "friend" in Japanese), with the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit aboard three ships moving up through the Philippine Sea and toward the coast of mainland Japan. The U.S. armed forces--including the Air Force, Army, Navy and Marine Corps—have been engaged in search-and-rescue operations and resupply missions in cooperation with Japanese civilian and military relief efforts.

The 2,200 Marines and sailors of the 31st MEU, who are due to arrive Wednesday, will support elements of the Marine Expeditionary Force that already have been deployed. "We are repositioning to be ready to support to our Japanese partners," Col. Andrew MacMannis, commanding officer of the 31st MEU said early Tuesday. "We stand ready to help our partners in need as they work tirelessly to respond to this evolving crisis."

T20 15th-March 2011

Global Markets

1. S&P 500 experiencing corrections after a prolonged period of steady growth. SP Chart

2. US Dollar was strengthening on the basis of fresh Euro zone credit woes, but reacting negatively to the Japanese crisis. Dollar Chart

3. Crude prices decrease on expectations of slower Japanese demand. Oil Chart

4. Gold prices steady after small decrease due to Japanese crisis and unrest in the Middle East. Gold Chart


Economy

5. Inflation rose to 8.31% in February adding more pressure on the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to further tighten its monetary policy.

6. February, 2011 power output in India rose 6.78% yoy which is lower than last month rise of 9.29%, the slowdown in growth is due to coal and gas shortages in some plants.

7. Iron ore exports from India set to decrease by 35% in FY12 due to deterrents such as the rise in export tax.

8. Index for Industrial Production (IIP) grew by 3.7% better than expectations.

9. Indian exports jumped 50% in February helping the country achieve its goal of $200 BN for the fiscal year a month before the deadline.

10. India Inc may experience a rise in revenues for Q4, FY11 but faces a reduction in margins due to rising commodity prices.


Indian Markets

11. Nifty experiencing sideways movement, still facing major resistance at 5600 level. Nifty Chart

12. FIIs purchased shares worth a net Rs. 5,980.4 cr from start of the month (March) to Date, 2011; Domestic funds bought shares worth a net Rs 21,590.3 cr for the same period.

Sector


13. Mobile crooks: Telecom is the second most corruption prone sector in India after real estate and construction.

14. Pharma companies worried about growth in India. High inflation and lack of funds are likely to cause hurdles in the growth of the Indian Pharma sector.

15. An upset banking sector could see 86,000 commercial banks and 1 lakh co-operative banks all over the country go on strike during the coming parliament session against some concessions given to private sector banks in the budget.

16. Cement Co’s are happy as cement sales rose 7.23% in February, 2011 on the back of healthy demand.


Stocks

17. Educomp Solutions Limited receives order worth RS. 6793 crore from Maharashtra govt. Educomp Chart

18. SAIL planning to build steel plant and power unit with Japanese Kobe steel in Uttar Pradesh for Rs 10,000 crore. Sail Chart

19. Vishal retail sells its retail business to Chennai based Sriram Group and wholesale business to PE firm TGP for Rs. 70 crore. Vishal Chart


Quotes

20. “A bank is a place that will lend you money if you can prove that you don't need it.” ~Bob Hope

Global Cues 15th March 2011

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March 10, 2011

Global Cues 8th March 2011

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T20 8th-March 2011

Global Markets


1. S&P in a sideways movement in response to uncertainty over international crude prices. SP Chart

2. US Dollar seeing an increasingly down trend, finding support at 76.50 levels. Dollar Chart

3. Crude prices touching a two and a half year high on back of Libyan crisis. Oil Chart

4. Gold prices still maintaining an uptrend on the back of strong demand. Gold Chart

Economy


5. India's food inflation at 10.39% yoy on Feb 19, 2011.

6. Private equity investments in Indian companies down by 54% yoy for Feb, 2011 with Banking, Financial services and Insurance attracted the maximum investments.

7. A panel consisting of Empowered Group of Ministers (EGOM) will consider the issue of export of 5 lakh tonnes of Sugar as food inflation shows signs of easing and high production is expected this year.

8. India’s per capita income increased by 14.5% during 2009/10 to Rs. 46,492 per person.

9. India's mobile subscribers at 771.18 million, adding 18.99 mn customers in Feb 2011.

Indian Markets


10. Nifty on a positive move finding resistance at the 5600 level. Nifty Chart

11. FIIs purchased shares worth a net Rs. 4,231.5 cr from March to Date, 2011; Domestic funds bought shares worth a net Rs 10,133.8 cr for the same period.

Sector


12. Telecom companies happy as 3G connections to hit 400 million within 4 years in India representing 30% of total mobile connections.

13. Pharma sector in India is nervous, FDI cap in Pharma to hurt global investor confidence which could lead to shifting of investments to other countries and discourage spending in healthcare sector.

14. PSU oil exploration and marketing companies’ losses on sale of petroleum fuel at less than cost price are set to double this quarter due to rising crude prices. Around 50% of the losses are going to covered by the government, around 33% is to covered by the Oil exploration companies and remaining to be covered by oil marketing companies.

15. Indian refineries performing much better than expected on production front as output rose 8.7% in Jan 2011 as compared to last year.

16. Indian service sector is thriving in India as it expanded at its fastest pace in 7 months helped by steady expansion of new business.

Stocks


17. Hero Group gets 26% of Honda’s stake in Hero Honda JV at half the market value. Hero Chart

18. Fortis buys 29% stake in Lanka Hospitals Corp. Fortis Chart

19. Gati plans to sell upto 49% of shipping business to Global shipping company in order to raise funds and expand business. Gati Chart

Quotes


20. “It is well enough that people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning” - Henry Ford

March 03, 2011

T20 2nd March 2011


Global Markets

1. S&P down this week on back of fears of rising crude prices. S&P Chart

2. US Dollar seeing a down trend due to rising global fuel prices. Dollar Chart

3. Crude prices rose this week due to political unrest in North Africa and the Middle East. Oil Chart

4. Gold prices on the rise, has touched a new 8 week high. Gold Chart


Economy

5. Core infrastructure industries output grew by 7.1% in January, 2011.

6. January exports up 32.4% YoY; close to a target of 15% growth for the current FY.

7. India's food inflation at 11.49% on Feb 12, 2011.

8. Indian Economy grew 8.2% in Q3 of current FY on back of robust growth in Agriculture and Services sectors.


Indian Markets

9. Nifty rejoices the budget announcements; is this sustainable? Nifty Chart

10.FIIs sold shares worth a net Rs. 5,529.7 cr from Feb to Date, 2011; Domestic funds bought shares worth a net Rs 23,979 cr for the same period.



Sector

11. Oil retailers raised ATF prices by 3.4% in line with spike in crude oil prices.

12. Budget & Sectors Highlights

•Budget Positive for auto sector, no hike in excise duty.

•Budget positive for banking sector, Rs. 6000 crores have been pledged to public sector banks to strengthen their capital base.

•Budget provides free tax bonds for Rs. 30000 crores to boost infrastructure development.

•Provisions were also made to extend the benefit of investment linked deductions to businesses engaged in the production of fertilizer.

•Budget not very positive for Telecom sector as a service tax exemption expected on broadband was not delivered in the budget, this would have boosted demand and revenues for broadband providing companies.Recent regulator recommendation has stimulated some uncertainty in the sector, especially with regards to      recent 2G pricing and license renewal fees. However, increasing rural penetration and data services offers immense potential going forward.
•The budget also provided for a 20% hike in export duty for iron ore, which drew a positive reaction from the Indian steel sector as it will help to contain escalating raw material costs.

13.Auto sales surge in Feb, 2011 in expectation of excise duty hike fears.

14.State run oil firms to raise petrol prices by up to Rs.4/ liter to offset rising crude prices.

15.Cement makers to increase cement price by Rs. 5 per 50Kg bag to pass on the proposed hike in excise duty to consumers.

16.Indian Agrochemical industry expected to grow at 7.5% to reach $ 1.7 Bn in 2012 driven by need for food grain self sufficiency.


Stocks

17. Mphasis scrip hammered over price cut issues with Hewlett Packard and a 20% fall in net profit. HewlettPackard Chart

18. TVS Motors reported a 24% growth in sales in February 2011. TVS Motors Chart

19. Marico’s Rs. 200 Crore bid for Unibic highlights their ambitions in the Indian food segment. Marico’s Chart

Quotes

20."Why not invest your assets in the companies you really like? As Mae West said, "Too much of a good thing can be wonderful" –Warren Buffett"

Global Cues March 2nd 2011

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