March 15, 2011

EoD Market commentary 15/3

‘Bada Bhai’ to the rescue!

Asia has opened the day with total blood loss on the back of Nuclear meltdown fears and possible underestimation of the extent of damage that had been meted out by ‘Mother Nature’ over the last weekend. Financials stocks took the maximum beating in the Japanese markets and the mayhem just spread to entire Asian region on fears of possible radiation leak and impact on neighboring countries/population.



In India we opened of a very tragic note – down almost 3.0% in early trade and steadily climbing the mountain of abyss that had been created due to Japan and the sentiment. Finally shares came back but must admit that the comeback has been less than convincing. The lone performer of the day was the ‘Bada Bhai’ counter which was, at it’s peak, up by 3.0% settling 1.75% up over previous close. This was on the back of sustaining crude prices and demand of conventional energy and stiffer safeguards on the Nuclear energy plants across the globe with the kind of disaster that shook Japan.



Losses in today’s trade were across the board with the Bank Nifty losing around 1.55% and the CNX IT losing close to 2.0% on the rub off on the potential loss of Japanese business for IT companies. Losses extended on the Auto and capital goods counters on anticipation and higher probability of rate hike by the RBI on March 17th 2011 policy meeting. This coupled with higher crude prices is a bit of a jolt for the Auto companies. The recently untouched excise duty now appears a thing of distant past. Such is the weight of sentiment on the markets.



I am attaching a WSJ article on how things are progressing in Japan and it indeed a heart rending read. I was appalled with the description of things by the author on how lack of electricity, water and non-availability of traffic signals is causing havoc on the Japanese life conditions. It is indeed how fast things can change in one’s life is a thing that I cannot but get overwhelmed.



On a lighter note, all Japanese driver should be bought to Bangalore for a 15-day crash course on driving in signal less roads and poorly lit conditions during night to brave the conditions in Japan. We could have a few pot holes thrown in for excitement during the course.



Finally, my heart reaches out not to those that were killed by this tsunami/earthquake; since for them the pain has eternally ended, but for those who are left behind and will have to deal with the trauma of lose of the loved ones and/or the habitat which has been destroyed completely. Spare a thought, cause nature can hit anybody beyond recognition.



For all the poor souls who lost their lives. RIP.

ASIA NEWS | MARCH 15, 2011, 2:53 A.M. ET

Death Toll Surges as Rescuers Scramble

Northern Communities Suffer Food and Water Shortages, While Markets, Economy Reel; U.S. Forces Step Up Assistance

Search-and-rescue efforts recovered more bodies in hard-hit areas across a broad swath of the northeastern coast of Japan's main island on Tuesday. Meanwhile, the nation's humanitarian and nuclear crisis appeared to take a turn for the worse four days after a historic earthquake rocked the archipelago and shut down the world's third-largest economy. The latest figures from Japan's National Police Agency showed some 2,414 people confirmed dead and 3,118 others missing.

Those numbers are expected to rise as aid workers reach more devastated areas. Rescue workers struggled to get food and water to Japan's ravaged northern communities on Monday as the impact of Friday's quake continued to ripple throughout the nation. It raised new fears about its nuclear facilities, shaking its financial markets and bringing big chunks of its economy to a halt.

The U.S. Geological Survey updated the magnitude of the earthquake to 9.0 from 8.9, which it said made the quake Japan's largest since modern recordings began 130 years ago.

National broadcaster NHK reported that more than 450,000 people had moved to temporary shelters in the affected areas.

The death toll in Japan climbed Monday as rescues scrambled to help survivors and more than a half a million people sought temporary shelters and food aid. Meanwhile, the risk of a nuclear meltdown is rising. Eduardo Kaplan has the latest details.



Reuters

Emiko Ohta, 52, can't bear to look at the debris that was her home in Kuji, Iwate prefecture. A day after sowing widespread confusion by announcing—and then postponing—rolling blackouts in Tokyo and other parts of eastern Japan to conserve energy, Tokyo Electric Power Co. started the planned power outages on Tuesday morning in bedroom communities in greater Tokyo.

A second round of blackouts in other areas was set to begin later Tuesday morning. The lack of planning was apparent in the haphazard manner in which the power outages were carried out. The blackouts were total—even critical infrastructure such as hospitals and traffic lights weren't spared. Many communities seemed unable to dispatch enough police or other authorities to direct traffic. In the town of Ageo in Saitama Prefecture, live footage of major intersections taken by helicopter and broadcast on Japanese television depicted chaotic scenes during the Tuesday morning rush hour. With no traffic lights or police to direct vehicles, large trucks and buses awkwardly alternated the right of way at a major transportation artery with groups of passenger cars, pedestrians and people on bicycles. East Japan Railway Co. and other railway companies operated more trains in the Tokyo area than they did Monday. However, services remained well below normal levels. Investors in Japanese markets registered their waning confidence in the Japanese economy's ability to bounce back from the disaster.

Then, following the comments from Prime Minister Naoto Kan during the break on radiation risks, stocks plunged further. By midafternoon, the average was down 14% at 8236.95. Rescue workers, meanwhile, tried to bring supplies to thousands of residents of towns along the northeastern coast of Japan that were among the worst-hit communities. Survivors told the nation via television that they didn't have power and were running out of food and water. People atop one building had written a huge character for "water" on the roof, so it could be seen by rescue helicopters. Information on the progress of relief efforts was sketchy.

A spokesman for Japan's Self-Defense Forces said they were in charge only of distributing food and water to regional supply points. He added that they didn't know how much had reached needy communities since regional governments were supposed to take the supplies from there. Miyoko Sugiyama, who lived a few blocks from the beach near the hard-hit city of Sendai, said she was happy to escape with her husband and 14-year-old dog."There were 2,700 homes" in her neighborhood, she said. "Now there are only a few left."

U.S. military forces, meanwhile, continued to amass in and around Japan as part of Operation Tomodachi (which means "friend" in Japanese), with the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit aboard three ships moving up through the Philippine Sea and toward the coast of mainland Japan. The U.S. armed forces--including the Air Force, Army, Navy and Marine Corps—have been engaged in search-and-rescue operations and resupply missions in cooperation with Japanese civilian and military relief efforts.

The 2,200 Marines and sailors of the 31st MEU, who are due to arrive Wednesday, will support elements of the Marine Expeditionary Force that already have been deployed. "We are repositioning to be ready to support to our Japanese partners," Col. Andrew MacMannis, commanding officer of the 31st MEU said early Tuesday. "We stand ready to help our partners in need as they work tirelessly to respond to this evolving crisis."

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