February 24, 2010
T20-24 Feb 2010
1. US Markets end positive: S&P500 grew by 3.16% during the previous week.
2. US unaffected by first rate hike in more than 3 years: As a first step to roll back stimuli, US fed raised the discount rate from 0.5% to 0.75%; this move will encourage financial institutions to rely more on money markets, rather than the central bank, for short-term loans.
3. Bullion strong despite IMF's announcement: IMF announced sale of 191 tonnes (about 8% of Annual Global Gold Sales) of Gold in the open market, this should have ideally brought some cheer to the Gold Bears. Looks like investors are losing confidence on Fiat currency.
4. Mixed signals: Is the shipping industry in for a nightmare or is the nightmare just over? Baltic Dry Index does the deadly cross; 50DMA cuts below 200DMA, but MACD crosses above signal line which is a positive indication BDI chart
5. Bullish signal of 50DMA crossing above 200DMA on dollar index (Dollex). Is this fallout of Greece crisis? Dollex chart
6. L&T enters the Mutual Fund business: L&T Finance Limited (LTF) has completed the acquisition of DBS Cholamandalam Asset Management Company Limited (DCAM). Has been renamed L&T Investment Management Limited, manages AUM of Rs. 2,634 crore.
7. ‘The world is flat’ said Thomas Friedman; Indian markets re-iterate this point: BSE Sensex & CNX Nifty closed flat gaining by 0.2% and 0.4% respectively. Broader market remained weak with Midcap and Small cap indices declining by more than 1% Nifty chart
8. LIC will help markets smile again, likely to pump in ~Rs. 100 bn by March: Govt. keen on offloading stake in PSU banks to LIC and GIC – LIC support became critical for REC issue as well. REC FPO has been subscribed by 0.59 times with retail response being quite poor @ 0.03 times.
9. Fertilizer policy creates a furor among the ruling alliance and also in markets. Fertilizer stocks are beaten down. Another example of “sell on news” tactic.
10. Budget may boost pharma sector: Govt's Vision 2015 statement indicates a CAGR of over 18% for the pharma sector, translating to doubling of revenues to $40 billion over the next 5 years. Government has recently announced the setting up of a venture fund that will infuse Rs.2000 cr. into the pharma sector
11. Domestic Steel to be hot & unrolled!! The steel industry expects the Centre to increase import duty on cold rolled and galvanized steel to 7.5% from 5% and withdraw the 5% duty on ferro alloys as most of these are not produced in India.
12. Telecom stocks, Bharti & MTNL in dumps – will they prove to be contrarian?
Bharti chart
MTNL chart
13. One of the major gaining sectors during the previous week was metals and Hindalco hogged limelight among metals. Hindalco chart
14. Corporates crave for excise duty cuts: According to survey conducted by Assocham, Corporate India wants stimulus package given in the form of excise duty cuts by the government to industry in the wake of the global financial crisis, to continue into the next fiscal
15. Yesterday, Today and Forever? 19 years after the then FM Manmohan Singh presented the budget, the persistent pain in the economy is ‘Fiscal Deficit’. With the stimuli afloat in the market, fiscal deficit is expected to be as wide as 6.8% for 2009-10 against 6% last year Economy charts
16. Ganesha may not speak about markets anymore: Sebi’s warning to investors against astrologers predicting fortunes in stock market has got support from most unexpected quarters — that is astrologers themselves, but what they are complaining against is lack of public data on companies and a free run for ‘technical analysts’ on TV channels
17. Some numbers for thought: A look at them prior to budget would be an interesting preposition. Pls click here
18. In this business if you're good, you're right six times out of ten. You're never going to be right nine times out of ten – Peter Lynch, Legendary Investor
19. The game of speculation is the most uniformly fascinating game in the world. But it is not a game for the stupid, the mentally lazy, the person of inferior emotional balance, or the get rich-quick adventurer.– Jesse Livermore
20. Today is the tomorrow we worried about yesterday - Anonymous
Disclaimer: Right Horizons has used information that is publicly available and developed in-house; and gathered from sources believed to be reliable. Right Horizons does not warrant accuracy and/or completeness of the same. This column is purely for educational purposes, nothing contained herein is a solicitation to trade or recommendation for any specific investment. Right Horizons shall not be responsible for any loss or damage of any nature, including and not limited to direct, indirect, punitive, special, exemplary, consequential, as also any loss or profit in any way arising out of any action undertaken by reading this column.
2. US unaffected by first rate hike in more than 3 years: As a first step to roll back stimuli, US fed raised the discount rate from 0.5% to 0.75%; this move will encourage financial institutions to rely more on money markets, rather than the central bank, for short-term loans.
3. Bullion strong despite IMF's announcement: IMF announced sale of 191 tonnes (about 8% of Annual Global Gold Sales) of Gold in the open market, this should have ideally brought some cheer to the Gold Bears. Looks like investors are losing confidence on Fiat currency.
4. Mixed signals: Is the shipping industry in for a nightmare or is the nightmare just over? Baltic Dry Index does the deadly cross; 50DMA cuts below 200DMA, but MACD crosses above signal line which is a positive indication BDI chart
5. Bullish signal of 50DMA crossing above 200DMA on dollar index (Dollex). Is this fallout of Greece crisis? Dollex chart
6. L&T enters the Mutual Fund business: L&T Finance Limited (LTF) has completed the acquisition of DBS Cholamandalam Asset Management Company Limited (DCAM). Has been renamed L&T Investment Management Limited, manages AUM of Rs. 2,634 crore.
7. ‘The world is flat’ said Thomas Friedman; Indian markets re-iterate this point: BSE Sensex & CNX Nifty closed flat gaining by 0.2% and 0.4% respectively. Broader market remained weak with Midcap and Small cap indices declining by more than 1% Nifty chart
8. LIC will help markets smile again, likely to pump in ~Rs. 100 bn by March: Govt. keen on offloading stake in PSU banks to LIC and GIC – LIC support became critical for REC issue as well. REC FPO has been subscribed by 0.59 times with retail response being quite poor @ 0.03 times.
9. Fertilizer policy creates a furor among the ruling alliance and also in markets. Fertilizer stocks are beaten down. Another example of “sell on news” tactic.
10. Budget may boost pharma sector: Govt's Vision 2015 statement indicates a CAGR of over 18% for the pharma sector, translating to doubling of revenues to $40 billion over the next 5 years. Government has recently announced the setting up of a venture fund that will infuse Rs.2000 cr. into the pharma sector
11. Domestic Steel to be hot & unrolled!! The steel industry expects the Centre to increase import duty on cold rolled and galvanized steel to 7.5% from 5% and withdraw the 5% duty on ferro alloys as most of these are not produced in India.
12. Telecom stocks, Bharti & MTNL in dumps – will they prove to be contrarian?
Bharti chart
MTNL chart
13. One of the major gaining sectors during the previous week was metals and Hindalco hogged limelight among metals. Hindalco chart
14. Corporates crave for excise duty cuts: According to survey conducted by Assocham, Corporate India wants stimulus package given in the form of excise duty cuts by the government to industry in the wake of the global financial crisis, to continue into the next fiscal
15. Yesterday, Today and Forever? 19 years after the then FM Manmohan Singh presented the budget, the persistent pain in the economy is ‘Fiscal Deficit’. With the stimuli afloat in the market, fiscal deficit is expected to be as wide as 6.8% for 2009-10 against 6% last year Economy charts
16. Ganesha may not speak about markets anymore: Sebi’s warning to investors against astrologers predicting fortunes in stock market has got support from most unexpected quarters — that is astrologers themselves, but what they are complaining against is lack of public data on companies and a free run for ‘technical analysts’ on TV channels
17. Some numbers for thought: A look at them prior to budget would be an interesting preposition. Pls click here
18. In this business if you're good, you're right six times out of ten. You're never going to be right nine times out of ten – Peter Lynch, Legendary Investor
19. The game of speculation is the most uniformly fascinating game in the world. But it is not a game for the stupid, the mentally lazy, the person of inferior emotional balance, or the get rich-quick adventurer.– Jesse Livermore
20. Today is the tomorrow we worried about yesterday - Anonymous
Disclaimer: Right Horizons has used information that is publicly available and developed in-house; and gathered from sources believed to be reliable. Right Horizons does not warrant accuracy and/or completeness of the same. This column is purely for educational purposes, nothing contained herein is a solicitation to trade or recommendation for any specific investment. Right Horizons shall not be responsible for any loss or damage of any nature, including and not limited to direct, indirect, punitive, special, exemplary, consequential, as also any loss or profit in any way arising out of any action undertaken by reading this column.
February 19, 2010
February 17, 2010
T20-Feb17
1. Dollar strengthens as EURO continues to battle its debt woes - Dollex @ $80; could a sustained upmove trigger a downtrend in equities and commodities? Or will it take a breather – see oil chart of point 2. USD chart
2. Crude oil turns bullish? Crude marched up closing @ $74.52 / barrel from $73.14 / barrel a week ago; MACD crosses signal line which indicates a bullish outlook. Crude Oil chart
3. To do or not to do? - US Federal Reserve is in talks with money-market mutual funds on agreements to help drain as much as $1 trillion from the financial system as it prepares for the first interest-rate increase since June 2006
4. Bleeding Greece gets a band-aid - Germany stands upright as the knight in shining armour; more announcements on specifics to trickle in. Will this reduce cash flows into emerging markets?
5. Nifty takes support at 200EMA - With an important event like budget round the corner, will it make or break? Nifty chart
6. Reason for the upmove- FIIs and DIIs turn bullish simultaneously for the first time over past 6 trading sessions - On 11 Feb 2010 DIIs & FIIs stood net buyers @ Rs. 37 Crs and Rs. 351 Crs respectively
7. Gold continues to lure investors - Local yellow metal closed @ Rs. 16731 / 10 gm on 16 Feb 2010, there has been a sharp pullback. Gold chart
8. IIP beats street expectations - IIP exceeded expectations, growing 16.8% in December against Street estimates of 13.5-14%; With skeletons tumbling out of the global closet, can India become a contrarian call? :)
9. Inflation is when you pay 15 dollars for the 10-dollar haircut you used to get for five dollars when you had hair - - Sam Ewing
10. Taming Inflation; Mission Impossible - Food Inflation @ 17.94% against 17.56% last week; no signs of cooling off. Overall Inflation (WPI) soars to 15-Month High Of 8.56%!
11. Business sector loses confidence in Indian political ability: Political confidence index drops 16.5% which indicates that the business sector has lost confidence in the political management of economic policies
12. RBI introduces Base rate to replace BPLR - Banking shares rose after the announcement, this move brings in additional transperancy. This base rate system would be effective from 1st April, 2010
13. Enjoy your long rides until fuel price rise woes last – FM (Finance Minister) and PM (Petroleum Minister) failed to reach consensus on the fuel price increase – has been postponed for the moment.
14. Railway Sector stocks leave the station and accelerate prior to budget –
Company Price
Table
15. Divestment plans on track; Will this help ease fiscal deficit? Govt. mulling capital infusion into Public Sector Banks. SAIL, Hindustan Copper, BSNL stand inline for divestment
16. Bharti Dials Zain - Bharti Airtel is in exclusive talks to buy for USD 10.7 billion in cash most of Zain's African business. Stock’s on a downward spiral, charting indicators turn bearish Bharti chart
17. Spicejet - Fundamentally strong, technically bleak? Logged net profits of 108Cr in Qtr ended Dec ’09; Domestic passenger traffic increased by 23% last month over the same period last year. Istithmar PJSC, Dubai offloaded 13.05% stake in SpiceJet; this was bought by Reliance / Birla SL / DSPBR MFs and an FII SpiceJet chart
18. CalPERS eyeing Indian Infrastructure Projects - One of US’ largest public pension funds is looking at infrastructure investments in India. News floats that Indian Govt. is considering a proposal to raise Rs. 500 bn of funds (via domestic & foreign sources) to meet the long-term needs of PPP projects
19. ULIPs get a makeover - From Diversified Portfolio, ULIP Schemes Now Shift To Sectoral Investment Plans. Private insurers have already launched schemes which invest in sectors like Infrastructure & PSU
20. Now add a dash of International flavor to your portfolio - Benchmark Mutual Fund launches India's 'first-ever international exchange traded fund (ETF)' – Hang Seng BeES
Disclaimer: Right Horizons has used information that is publicly available and developed in-house; and gathered from sources believed to be reliable. Right Horizons does not warrant accuracy and/or completeness of the same. This column is purely for educational purposes, nothing contained herein is a solicitation to trade or recommendation for any specific investment. Right Horizons shall not be responsible for any loss or damage of any nature, including and not limited to direct, indirect, punitive, special, exemplary, consequential, as also any loss or profit in any way arising out of any action undertaken by reading this column.
2. Crude oil turns bullish? Crude marched up closing @ $74.52 / barrel from $73.14 / barrel a week ago; MACD crosses signal line which indicates a bullish outlook. Crude Oil chart
3. To do or not to do? - US Federal Reserve is in talks with money-market mutual funds on agreements to help drain as much as $1 trillion from the financial system as it prepares for the first interest-rate increase since June 2006
4. Bleeding Greece gets a band-aid - Germany stands upright as the knight in shining armour; more announcements on specifics to trickle in. Will this reduce cash flows into emerging markets?
5. Nifty takes support at 200EMA - With an important event like budget round the corner, will it make or break? Nifty chart
6. Reason for the upmove- FIIs and DIIs turn bullish simultaneously for the first time over past 6 trading sessions - On 11 Feb 2010 DIIs & FIIs stood net buyers @ Rs. 37 Crs and Rs. 351 Crs respectively
7. Gold continues to lure investors - Local yellow metal closed @ Rs. 16731 / 10 gm on 16 Feb 2010, there has been a sharp pullback. Gold chart
8. IIP beats street expectations - IIP exceeded expectations, growing 16.8% in December against Street estimates of 13.5-14%; With skeletons tumbling out of the global closet, can India become a contrarian call? :)
9. Inflation is when you pay 15 dollars for the 10-dollar haircut you used to get for five dollars when you had hair - - Sam Ewing
10. Taming Inflation; Mission Impossible - Food Inflation @ 17.94% against 17.56% last week; no signs of cooling off. Overall Inflation (WPI) soars to 15-Month High Of 8.56%!
11. Business sector loses confidence in Indian political ability: Political confidence index drops 16.5% which indicates that the business sector has lost confidence in the political management of economic policies
12. RBI introduces Base rate to replace BPLR - Banking shares rose after the announcement, this move brings in additional transperancy. This base rate system would be effective from 1st April, 2010
13. Enjoy your long rides until fuel price rise woes last – FM (Finance Minister) and PM (Petroleum Minister) failed to reach consensus on the fuel price increase – has been postponed for the moment.
14. Railway Sector stocks leave the station and accelerate prior to budget –
Company Price
Table
15. Divestment plans on track; Will this help ease fiscal deficit? Govt. mulling capital infusion into Public Sector Banks. SAIL, Hindustan Copper, BSNL stand inline for divestment
16. Bharti Dials Zain - Bharti Airtel is in exclusive talks to buy for USD 10.7 billion in cash most of Zain's African business. Stock’s on a downward spiral, charting indicators turn bearish Bharti chart
17. Spicejet - Fundamentally strong, technically bleak? Logged net profits of 108Cr in Qtr ended Dec ’09; Domestic passenger traffic increased by 23% last month over the same period last year. Istithmar PJSC, Dubai offloaded 13.05% stake in SpiceJet; this was bought by Reliance / Birla SL / DSPBR MFs and an FII SpiceJet chart
18. CalPERS eyeing Indian Infrastructure Projects - One of US’ largest public pension funds is looking at infrastructure investments in India. News floats that Indian Govt. is considering a proposal to raise Rs. 500 bn of funds (via domestic & foreign sources) to meet the long-term needs of PPP projects
19. ULIPs get a makeover - From Diversified Portfolio, ULIP Schemes Now Shift To Sectoral Investment Plans. Private insurers have already launched schemes which invest in sectors like Infrastructure & PSU
20. Now add a dash of International flavor to your portfolio - Benchmark Mutual Fund launches India's 'first-ever international exchange traded fund (ETF)' – Hang Seng BeES
Disclaimer: Right Horizons has used information that is publicly available and developed in-house; and gathered from sources believed to be reliable. Right Horizons does not warrant accuracy and/or completeness of the same. This column is purely for educational purposes, nothing contained herein is a solicitation to trade or recommendation for any specific investment. Right Horizons shall not be responsible for any loss or damage of any nature, including and not limited to direct, indirect, punitive, special, exemplary, consequential, as also any loss or profit in any way arising out of any action undertaken by reading this column.
February 11, 2010
February 10, 2010
T20 10th Feb 2010
1. Global players turn bearish, domestically are we still bullish? Indian Capital markets witnessed Rs. 1124.18 cr selling by FII's for week ended 6th Feb 10 & DII's stood buyers worth Rs. 2663.61 crores
2. The 'PIGS' give Sensex the creeps - European nations Portugal, Italy, Greece, Spain are on the verge of defaulting on their debt payment. Is there more to come?
3. Insurance companies may increase investments in the nation’s stocks by 24% to a record $21 billion next FY as premium collections rise – will domestic institutions lead the next rally?
4. Bears hammer the yellow metal: Goldbees a popular Indian Gold ETF closed below crucial level of 1600 on the last trading day of the week on high volumes. Will there be a pullback?
5. Fiscal Deficit in focus before budget: Is currently at a 16 year high of 6.8%, finance ministry hints to bring it down to 5.5% in FY11 and further to 4% by FY2012- will this be funded by higher taxes or disinvestment?
6. Kirit gets cracking on fuel pricing: Panel headed by Kirit Parekh advocated market based prices for auto fuels and gradual increase for cooking fuels. Negative to consumers, positive to oil marketing companies.
7. GAIL to benefit most by Kirit’s recommendations: GAIL has not been included in the new proposed graded subsidy sharing mechanism as the proposed formula would be applicable only to players that were given nominated blocks by the government (ONGC, OIL).
8. One burning issue apart from 'Mumbai and Marathis', is the food inflation: For week ended Jan 23, 2010 it was pegged @ 17.56% as against 17.4% previous week.
9. Credit Suisse downgrades India to 'Underweight' - sell real estate, consumer cyclicals and rate sensitive stocks - Historically cyclicals & rate sensitive tend to underperform in a rising interest rate environment
10. Except for Consumer Durables sector which gained 2.9% all other indices ended lower. Worst performing indices during the week were Realty (-7.1%), Banking(-4.5%), PSU(-3.9%), Power(-3.8%) & Metal(-3.8%).
11. Indian auto industry shines: Highest ever sales in a single month at over 11 lakh units in January 10, boosted by easy availability of retail finance and soft interest rates. Does this signal an economic revival?
12. Private equity firm TPG is eyeing major stake in crises hit Vishal Retail. Likely to infuse Rs. 250 Crore
13. IDBI Bank ready to acquire a regional bank to establish their presence in south India - Probable acquisition targets are Karur Vysya Bank, Karnataka Bank or Lakshmi Vilas Bank.
14. Guj NRE Coke has posted a Net profit at Rs267m improved 100% YoY and 32% QoQ. The World coal consumption in year 2008 was at 6.7billion tonne vs production of 6.8b tonne. With the coal demand seeing an upturn this could benefit the company further.
15. Axis bank withdraws its teaser home loan scheme before schedule - The increase in the cash reserve ratio (CRR) seems to have started taking a toll on interest rates
16. Siemens & Astra micro budget play, defense allocation exposure
17. Jet airways on cloud nine: The airline has reported a 25.9% surge in domestic and 29.6% surge in international passenger traffic in January against the same period last year.
18. "It's not whether you're right or wrong that's important, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong."- George Soros
19. Whether we’re talking about socks or stocks, I like buying quality merchandise when it is market down – Warren Buffet
20. In stocks, Time is your friend, impulse is your enemy. –John Bogle
2. The 'PIGS' give Sensex the creeps - European nations Portugal, Italy, Greece, Spain are on the verge of defaulting on their debt payment. Is there more to come?
3. Insurance companies may increase investments in the nation’s stocks by 24% to a record $21 billion next FY as premium collections rise – will domestic institutions lead the next rally?
4. Bears hammer the yellow metal: Goldbees a popular Indian Gold ETF closed below crucial level of 1600 on the last trading day of the week on high volumes. Will there be a pullback?
5. Fiscal Deficit in focus before budget: Is currently at a 16 year high of 6.8%, finance ministry hints to bring it down to 5.5% in FY11 and further to 4% by FY2012- will this be funded by higher taxes or disinvestment?
6. Kirit gets cracking on fuel pricing: Panel headed by Kirit Parekh advocated market based prices for auto fuels and gradual increase for cooking fuels. Negative to consumers, positive to oil marketing companies.
7. GAIL to benefit most by Kirit’s recommendations: GAIL has not been included in the new proposed graded subsidy sharing mechanism as the proposed formula would be applicable only to players that were given nominated blocks by the government (ONGC, OIL).
8. One burning issue apart from 'Mumbai and Marathis', is the food inflation: For week ended Jan 23, 2010 it was pegged @ 17.56% as against 17.4% previous week.
9. Credit Suisse downgrades India to 'Underweight' - sell real estate, consumer cyclicals and rate sensitive stocks - Historically cyclicals & rate sensitive tend to underperform in a rising interest rate environment
10. Except for Consumer Durables sector which gained 2.9% all other indices ended lower. Worst performing indices during the week were Realty (-7.1%), Banking(-4.5%), PSU(-3.9%), Power(-3.8%) & Metal(-3.8%).
11. Indian auto industry shines: Highest ever sales in a single month at over 11 lakh units in January 10, boosted by easy availability of retail finance and soft interest rates. Does this signal an economic revival?
12. Private equity firm TPG is eyeing major stake in crises hit Vishal Retail. Likely to infuse Rs. 250 Crore
13. IDBI Bank ready to acquire a regional bank to establish their presence in south India - Probable acquisition targets are Karur Vysya Bank, Karnataka Bank or Lakshmi Vilas Bank.
14. Guj NRE Coke has posted a Net profit at Rs267m improved 100% YoY and 32% QoQ. The World coal consumption in year 2008 was at 6.7billion tonne vs production of 6.8b tonne. With the coal demand seeing an upturn this could benefit the company further.
15. Axis bank withdraws its teaser home loan scheme before schedule - The increase in the cash reserve ratio (CRR) seems to have started taking a toll on interest rates
16. Siemens & Astra micro budget play, defense allocation exposure
17. Jet airways on cloud nine: The airline has reported a 25.9% surge in domestic and 29.6% surge in international passenger traffic in January against the same period last year.
18. "It's not whether you're right or wrong that's important, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong."- George Soros
19. Whether we’re talking about socks or stocks, I like buying quality merchandise when it is market down – Warren Buffet
20. In stocks, Time is your friend, impulse is your enemy. –John Bogle
February 04, 2010
Global Cues 4th Feb 2010
Your peek into important global cues for this week. Please follow the link..Global Cues 04 Feb 2010
February 03, 2010
T20 3rd Feb 2010
1. Nifty in the month of January lost 6%. This is real loss of momentum considering that Nifty broke out above 5180 and then collapsed - thanks to sell off in Global markets.
2. S&P 500 - US benchmark index lost 3.7%. MSCI Emerging market index lost 5% in January.
3. Since 1950, the S&P has matched its January performance more than 70% of the time. There is strong belief that January sets the tone for the rest of the year at least for US markets. Since, financial markets are highly correlated now-a-days - does that mean 2010 will be down year for Indian markets? [Remember, in 2009 - this trend did not work]
4. In bearish market environment - Good news = Bad News. US GDP data came at 5.7% on Friday but market still tanked.
5. Who says Trees don't go to skies? The Budget Deficit in US seems to be going that way. The US Budget Deficit is estimated to be USD 1.56 trillion in 2010.
6. Feb = Budget Month. The market will keep a close eye on Budget Deficit here in India which is expected to throw a positive surprise thanks to aggressive Disinvestment and robust tax collections. It will be interesting to watch market reaction on good news.
7. It is always difficult to trade a choppy-cum-bearish market. This time seems no different. After two days of gains on Friday and Monday, the market seems to be losing the momentum.
8. Two stocks that are holding the market up - ITC and Reliance. They have not cracked below their critical support levels.
9. Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy inline with expectations - Has hiked the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) by 75 basis points (bps) to 5.75 per cent, repo and reverse repo rates remain unchanged - CRR to be raised in 2 phases - 50 bps w.e.f Feb 13, 2010 and 25 bps w.e.f Feb 27, 2010. This will drain out Rs 36,000 crore from the system
10. Is it a Myth that Bank stocks decline in a rising interest rate environment? Bank of Baroda made a fresh 52 week high on day of CRR hike
11. L&T led the Capital markets index decline but power related stocks are making a strong comeback. BHEL, Siemens and Crompton Greaves continue with strength
12. No takers for Real Estate stocks. It is one of the most oversold sectors in the market. Will institutions support the sector?
13. Fitch negative on India real estate Sector : “Outlook for Indian real estate sector in 2010 is –ve, with a slight stable bias." The commercial segment and rentals will continue to remain under pressure
14. Consumption is making a comeback. Keep an eye on stocks like Titan and Shoppers stock. Both trading strong despite negative pressure on market.
15. Railway Budget Plays: Kalindee Rail Nirman, Kernex Microsystems and Titagorh Wagons
16. ADAG group stocks are losing the way. Most of the ADAG group stocks are trading in bearish territory i.e. below 200 DMA(Day moving average)
17. Auto monthly numbers once again surprise on the upside. There is very strong business momentum, but stocks have stopped reacting to good news. Reason - Over ownership and market has priced in the good news
18. Market does not care what we think. Market does what it has to do. It does not intentionally harm any individual. Market is always fair to everyone
19. Lesson: Market is not against us - it is our emotions that let us down.
20. It always pays to listen to the market objectively. The best way is to follow Charts, as Charts don't lie and are not made up. It represents facts.
2. S&P 500 - US benchmark index lost 3.7%. MSCI Emerging market index lost 5% in January.
3. Since 1950, the S&P has matched its January performance more than 70% of the time. There is strong belief that January sets the tone for the rest of the year at least for US markets. Since, financial markets are highly correlated now-a-days - does that mean 2010 will be down year for Indian markets? [Remember, in 2009 - this trend did not work]
4. In bearish market environment - Good news = Bad News. US GDP data came at 5.7% on Friday but market still tanked.
5. Who says Trees don't go to skies? The Budget Deficit in US seems to be going that way. The US Budget Deficit is estimated to be USD 1.56 trillion in 2010.
6. Feb = Budget Month. The market will keep a close eye on Budget Deficit here in India which is expected to throw a positive surprise thanks to aggressive Disinvestment and robust tax collections. It will be interesting to watch market reaction on good news.
7. It is always difficult to trade a choppy-cum-bearish market. This time seems no different. After two days of gains on Friday and Monday, the market seems to be losing the momentum.
8. Two stocks that are holding the market up - ITC and Reliance. They have not cracked below their critical support levels.
9. Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy inline with expectations - Has hiked the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) by 75 basis points (bps) to 5.75 per cent, repo and reverse repo rates remain unchanged - CRR to be raised in 2 phases - 50 bps w.e.f Feb 13, 2010 and 25 bps w.e.f Feb 27, 2010. This will drain out Rs 36,000 crore from the system
10. Is it a Myth that Bank stocks decline in a rising interest rate environment? Bank of Baroda made a fresh 52 week high on day of CRR hike
11. L&T led the Capital markets index decline but power related stocks are making a strong comeback. BHEL, Siemens and Crompton Greaves continue with strength
12. No takers for Real Estate stocks. It is one of the most oversold sectors in the market. Will institutions support the sector?
13. Fitch negative on India real estate Sector : “Outlook for Indian real estate sector in 2010 is –ve, with a slight stable bias." The commercial segment and rentals will continue to remain under pressure
14. Consumption is making a comeback. Keep an eye on stocks like Titan and Shoppers stock. Both trading strong despite negative pressure on market.
15. Railway Budget Plays: Kalindee Rail Nirman, Kernex Microsystems and Titagorh Wagons
16. ADAG group stocks are losing the way. Most of the ADAG group stocks are trading in bearish territory i.e. below 200 DMA(Day moving average)
17. Auto monthly numbers once again surprise on the upside. There is very strong business momentum, but stocks have stopped reacting to good news. Reason - Over ownership and market has priced in the good news
18. Market does not care what we think. Market does what it has to do. It does not intentionally harm any individual. Market is always fair to everyone
19. Lesson: Market is not against us - it is our emotions that let us down.
20. It always pays to listen to the market objectively. The best way is to follow Charts, as Charts don't lie and are not made up. It represents facts.
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