2. S&P 500 - US benchmark index lost 3.7%. MSCI Emerging market index lost 5% in January.
3. Since 1950, the S&P has matched its January performance more than 70% of the time. There is strong belief that January sets the tone for the rest of the year at least for US markets. Since, financial markets are highly correlated now-a-days - does that mean 2010 will be down year for Indian markets? [Remember, in 2009 - this trend did not work]
4. In bearish market environment - Good news = Bad News. US GDP data came at 5.7% on Friday but market still tanked.
5. Who says Trees don't go to skies? The Budget Deficit in US seems to be going that way. The US Budget Deficit is estimated to be USD 1.56 trillion in 2010.
6. Feb = Budget Month. The market will keep a close eye on Budget Deficit here in India which is expected to throw a positive surprise thanks to aggressive Disinvestment and robust tax collections. It will be interesting to watch market reaction on good news.
7. It is always difficult to trade a choppy-cum-bearish market. This time seems no different. After two days of gains on Friday and Monday, the market seems to be losing the momentum.
8. Two stocks that are holding the market up - ITC and Reliance. They have not cracked below their critical support levels.
9. Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy inline with expectations - Has hiked the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) by 75 basis points (bps) to 5.75 per cent, repo and reverse repo rates remain unchanged - CRR to be raised in 2 phases - 50 bps w.e.f Feb 13, 2010 and 25 bps w.e.f Feb 27, 2010. This will drain out Rs 36,000 crore from the system
10. Is it a Myth that Bank stocks decline in a rising interest rate environment? Bank of Baroda made a fresh 52 week high on day of CRR hike
11. L&T led the Capital markets index decline but power related stocks are making a strong comeback. BHEL, Siemens and Crompton Greaves continue with strength
12. No takers for Real Estate stocks. It is one of the most oversold sectors in the market. Will institutions support the sector?
13. Fitch negative on India real estate Sector : “Outlook for Indian real estate sector in 2010 is –ve, with a slight stable bias." The commercial segment and rentals will continue to remain under pressure
14. Consumption is making a comeback. Keep an eye on stocks like Titan and Shoppers stock. Both trading strong despite negative pressure on market.
15. Railway Budget Plays: Kalindee Rail Nirman, Kernex Microsystems and Titagorh Wagons
16. ADAG group stocks are losing the way. Most of the ADAG group stocks are trading in bearish territory i.e. below 200 DMA(Day moving average)
17. Auto monthly numbers once again surprise on the upside. There is very strong business momentum, but stocks have stopped reacting to good news. Reason - Over ownership and market has priced in the good news
18. Market does not care what we think. Market does what it has to do. It does not intentionally harm any individual. Market is always fair to everyone
19. Lesson: Market is not against us - it is our emotions that let us down.
20. It always pays to listen to the market objectively. The best way is to follow Charts, as Charts don't lie and are not made up. It represents facts.
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