Positive trigger galore, but sentiment remains weak!!

The Nifty moved swiftly over the past couple of week to capture Mt. 5k and is currently battling to retain the control of this elusive point. Over the past couple of weeks this swift rise has been greeted with many names; technical pull back, bounce, global move towards risk assets and relief rally to name a few. Having said all this and being couple of week away (in terms of trading sessions) from closing the year 2011; my thinking is that right from the beginning of 2011, where, recall the kind of optimism we started on.

And through the year, one bad news after another we slowly gave away for pessimism and now at the end of the year there is this heightened sense of fear, equity shunning attitude amongst clients and a general sense of lack of trust in how 2012 would be for equities and its performance.

If there is little bit of learning that history can teach us and that we can learn some bit from a discipline called human psychology, it is that there can be patterns that seem to repeat and there is a general tendency of human behavior where people follow herds etc.

In a nutshell, when investors are losing sleep and hope and generally have all bad things to say about the way things are panning out then over the future, could be a time to switch off and try to figure out what the big picture is telling us. Time to take a step back and see where things are taking us or are likely to take us, time to see what smart people are doing in times like these.

The answers would turn out to be clearer as time progresses, the only thing that we need to remember is that had we thought and cultivated the foresight to see what others are not able to see. Not because they were blind but just that they refuse to accept what they saw. It is just easier said than done.

And in our business, even more difficult to practice. So for today, the Nifty appears to be precariously positioned, looks like it might go anywhere. So again, the time to just add some fun to the close of the year. I want to run a quick contest for you all. So stay tuned.