Sorry this is not a covert (surrogate) advertisement to promote Jonny Walker label products. I thought this title is apt for how things stand at the cross roads on the investment spectrum for Indian investors. Today, the market was wayward and looked like it will fall at the slightest hint of news. Greek default, another round of breakdown in debt talks and all the slowdown issues bugging the Euro land, would rub its way onto us.
So I thought it would be good to take sometime and tell you all, what would happen if Greece defaults over the next few days. What would be the impact of it on all of us. Just to keep the answer of this simple and not beat around the bush as much. Rather than answering this question directly, let me ask you guys, if you remember the Asian financial crises in 1997-1998, when Indonesia defaulted on external debt payments, what happened?
Actually, nothing worthwhile for us. In fact for the country itself, more than 10 year post that default it has been amongst the fastest growing emerging markets economy. So technically if Greece defaults the world is not going to stop functioning. A lot of people, read developed countries, who hold Greek debt would have to shave off a few million dollars of their worth, most notably banks and financial institutions; but beyond that it would be life as usual for people in Greece and else where in EU land. They will NOT stop breathing and eating. They will pick up where they lost out from, hopefully learn and move one.
For us, how in the world does it matter. We neither hold a lot of EU debt, nor trade in a big way, nor import European food to eat, so life will just go on with elections, food & floods and domestic problems enough to take care till 2030, at least.
When we look back, it would be the same way as we do today at the Asian Financial crises. We will have to tell ourselves to move ahead, tighten our shoe laces and start walking.
Or rather as the ad said – Keep Walking…
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